24 of the world’s best stayers will run over two miles at Flemington with the big question being if the local thoroughbreds can hold off the European charge. Either way, it’s going to be another incredible edition of the Cup.
What’s fun about Melbourne Cup day is that all levels of punters like to get involved – from the serious to the beginner punters, which makes for incredible day on the punt.
Whether you’re running a Melbourne Cup sweep or looking for the history of the race, we have it covered and hopefully we’ll guide you to a winner or three this Tuesday.
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Race 7 – Melbourne Cup (3200m)
|1||Hartnell||James Cummings||Damian Lane||12||57.5kg||$31|
|2||Almandin||Robert Hickmott||Frankie Dettori||14||56.5kg||$9|
|3||Humidor||Darren Weir||Blake Shinn||13||56kg||$11|
|4||Tiberian||Alain Couetil||Oliver Peslier||23||55.5kg||$26|
|5||Marmelo||Hughie Morrison||Hugh Bowman||16||55kg||$8.50|
|6||Red Cardinal||Andreas Wohler||Kerrin McEvoy||24||55kg||$18|
|7||Johannes Vermeer||Aiden O’Brien||Ben Melham||3||54.5kg||$9.50|
|8||Bondi Beach||Robert Hickmott||Michael Walker||1||54kg||$67|
|9||Max Dynamite||William Mullins||Zac Purton||2||54kg||$14|
|10||Ventura Storm||David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig||Glen Boss||6||54kg||$34|
|Chris Waller||Tommy Berry||20||54kg||SCR|
|12||Wicklow Brave||William Mullins||Stephen Baster||8||54kg||$67|
|13||Big Duke||Darren Weir||Brenton Avdulla||5||53.5kg||$19|
|14||US Army Ranger||Joseph O’Brien||Jamie Spencer||22||53.5kg||$67|
|15||Boom Time||David & Ben Hayes & Tom Dabernig||Cory Parish||9||53kg||$34|
|16||Gallante||Robert Hickmott||Michael Dee||18||53kg||$91|
|17||Libran||Chris Waller||Dwayne Dunn||7||53kg||$41|
|18||Nakeeta||Iain Jardine||Glyn Schofield||19||53kg||$41|
|19||Single Gaze||Nick Olive||Kathy O’Hara||11||53kg||$41|
|20||Wall Of Fire||Hugo Palmer||Craig Williams||15||53kg||$11|
|21||Thomas Hobson||William Mullins||Joao Moreira||21||52kg||$19|
|22||Rekindling||Joseph O’Brien||Corey Brown||4||51.5kg||$12|
|23||Amelie’s Star||Darren Weir||Dean Yendall||10||51kg||$21|
|24||Cismontane||Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott||Beau Mertens||17||50kg||$67|
The field of 24 are going to find it tough to beat last year’s winner Almandin. The Robert Hickmott-trained champion was a gutsy winner of the race last year, but it has improved significantly since. The eight-year-old’s win in the JRA Trophy was that of a horse still progressing and it carried 61kg to victory on that occasion. Some punters are hesitant about backing Almandin due to his last start performance for fourth in the Bart Cummings, but it needed the run to prepare for the Cup and we’re supremely confident about his chances at $8.
Johannes Vermeer is the obvious danger and having experience in Australia is a big plus. The Aidan O’Brien-trained five-year-old entered Australia with good European form and his performance for second in the Caulfield Stakes behind Gailo Chop was pure class. That form continued through to the Caulfield Cup where it was held up at a crucial stop at the top of the straight. Credibly, the son of Galileo got back into its work and hit the line well behind Boom Time. His odds have firmed from $13 to $9.50 and that’s a significant push.
Melbourne Cup tip: Almandin to win ($8) at Neds.com.au
Race 1 – Emirates A380 Stakes (1000m)
Qafila was an impressive winner of the Debutante Stakes at Caulfield and it looks to be going places. The Lindsay Park-trained two-year-old was well-backed into $5 on debut and it looks a good chance to run at those odds again. Drawing wide down the straight shouldn’t worry it too much and it could be swooping them late.
Setsuna has drawn the rail following its win in the Inglis 2YO at Moonee Valley. The Waterhouse/Bott-trained filly ran an outstanding second in the Gimcrack on debut and although that form doesn’t typically hold up, punters had to be impressed last start. It will likely jump and run.
Race 1 tip: Qafila to win ($4.60) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 2 – Tabcorp Trophy (1700m)
Invincibella is a four-time winner from 18 starts and it’s looking to rebound after running third in the Tesio Stakes. The Waller-trained mare showed its ability when winning consecutive starts earlier this campaign and the race wasn’t run to suit last start. Punters have come for it early at $2.70, but that price might drift a touch on race day.
Linguist was only a winner at Ballarat last start, but that came by four lengths. The Ellerton/Zahra-trained mare looks capable of running well against this level and stretching out to the 1700m looks ideal. The light weight of 54kg helps and the odds available are nice.
Race 2 tip: Linguist to place ($4) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 3 – Lavazza Short Black Handicap (1400m)
New Universe was scratched last Saturday and punters are getting a better price now. The Waller-trained New Zealand import wasn’t disgraced when third last start and it’s unbeaten from two second-up starts. Running left-handed might be the problem, but given the odds of $4.40, punters are getting a good price to take the risk.
There has been a significant move for Land of Plenty, which has won only one race from 13 starts. The four-year-old has placed three times at Flemington which is a positive and it has been taking on tough company recently. He ran against the likes of Redkirk Warrior, Santa Ana Lane and Keen Array at its last three starts, so consider here.
Race 3 tip: New Universe to win ($4.40) at Neds.com.au
Race 4 – Ronald McDonald Plate (2800m)
Yogi is a past winner at Flemington and we’re not worried about the outside draw over this distance. The Darren Weir-trained five-year-old finished off well behind Melbourne Cup chance Amelie’s Star last start and that form should be good enough to this. Currently a $5.50 chance with bookmakers.
Granddukeoftuscany also has form behind Amelie’s Star when running second in the Bart Cummings. The Hickmott-trained stayer was pushing for a start in the Melbourne Cup and punters might get a better betting opportunity here. There is concern that it has won only twice, but the inside draw gives it a soft run and he should be tough to beat.
Race 4 tip: Granddukeoftuscany to win ($4.80) at Neds.com.au
Race 5 – Schweppes Flemington Fling (1000m)
Paret got a touch too far back at Rosehill, but it has some serious ability as it showed on debut. The Waller-trained sprinter defeated a good maiden field at Canterbury, but it has been starting over longer distances than this. The drop back to 1000m is the big concern, but there is some support around.
Madeenaty has been costly for punters this season, but a return to Flemington looks ideal. The Lindsay Park-trained three-year-old won here on debut and in fine style, so that form could continue over to this. Running down the straight is going to help her chances and drawing out wide should be the place to come. $7.50 is a value price.
Race 5 tip: Madeenaty to place ($2.50) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 6 – Lexus Hybrid Plate (1400m)
Our Crown Mistress has looked impressive winning its last three and more wins are in store for this filly. The Waterhouse/Bott-trained three-year-old scored its third consecutive win at Caulfield last start and she defeated a handy field in the process. Getting the inside draw is going to allow it to dictate the pace again and the $3.20 is a solid price for a classy filly.
Counterplay looked good earlier in its career, but she returned to form when placing behind Our Crown Mistress last start. The Phillip Stokes-trained filly won by 4.5 lengths at Morphettville last season and it ran a gallant second in the Thoroughbred Club Stakes. Running at 1400m again looks ideal and it will be finishing off stylishly.
Race 6 tip: Counterplay to place ($2.30) at Unibet.com.au
Race 8 – James Boag’s Premium Stakes (1800m)
Odeon was too good for them last start and punters are getting good each way odds again. The four-year-old gelding was a 1.5-length winner at Caulfield and it overturned some pretty average form prior to that. He’s a confidence runner and the $6 could be value odds.
Lubiton is a five-time winner from 17 starts which scored a quality win at Moonee Valley last start. Flemington is another kettle of fish, but the rise in distance looks ideal and carrying only 54kg is going to take it close. Just needs to cross the field from out wide.
Race 8 tip: Lubiton to place ($2.10) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 9 – MSS Security Sprint (1200m)
I Thought So looks well-prepared for this and its Sydney form should stack up here. The David Pfieffer-trained four-year-old has been around the mark at Randwick over its last three starts and although that form might not be up to this level, he did finish fifth behind Savanna Amour last season. That form could take him close.
Faatinah finished on well for third in the Caulfield Sprint and that looks the best form guide for this. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained five-year-old was heading to Dubai last season, but it wasn’t quite up to that level. He runs best at this track and distance, so punters taking the $6 on offer are getting value.
Race 9 tip: Faatinah to win ($6) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 10 – Hong Kong Jockey Club (1400m)
White Moss has come of age this preparation with two wins from two starts. The Jason Coyle-trained mare will likely turn heads on course which could take its current price of $5 down. She has beaten some talented fields in Sydney and we’re not doubting its ability to win in Melbourne.
Miss Gunpowder has been waiting to its first start at Flemington and we’re predicting a big run. The daughter of Pendragon looks ideally suited to the long Flemington straight and its recent form suggests that a big run is coming. $8.50 with bookmakers.
Race 10 tip: Miss Gunpowder to win ($8.50) at Neds.com.au