2018 Melbourne Cup Tips

melbourne cup betting tips

Let’s make no bones about it, you have landed here looking for a red-hot Melbourne Cup tip.

The HorseBetting team have been keeping up-to-date with all the lead-in events coming into the race that stops a nation so if you are punting with our tips, you can do so with confidence.

Alongside our tip for the Melbourne Cup, we have provided our best long-shot runners of the day and a candidate we feel will be simply making up the numbers on that first Tuesday of November.

Best bet – Marmelo

Marmelo has a number of factors in his favour in 2018. (Ross Holburt/Racing Photos)

Trainer: Hughie Morrison
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: 9th, 2017
Current odds: $16 at Ladbrokes
Colours: Marmelo Melbourne Cup 2017

We loved last year’s favourite coming into the 2017 Melbourne Cup and this year presents as an even better hope heading into 2018.

Finishing an admirable eighth in last year’s Cup, Marmelo has finished inside the top-two in four runs in 2018, and in the race that stops a nation this year he gets arguably the world’s best jockey Hugh Bowman taking the ride, as he did last year.

Jumping from an ideal barrier, having last year’s quality run in the book and the trusted hands of Hughy taking the ride once again – we love Marmelo’s chances of delivering in the Melbourne Cup on the second attempt.

Best at odds – Finche

Tiberian Hugh Bowman
Hugh Bowman introduces Tiberian to picturesque Australia. Will the French raider be overawed by the Flemington straight and 100,000 people? (Pat Scala/Racing Photos)

Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Zac Purton
Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2018
Current odds: $26 at Ladbrokes
Colours:

Many have put forwards Finche’s name as a stayer to watch in 2019, but we aren’t discounting the Waller import heading into the race that stops a nation.

Working home well to round out the placings in the Geelong Cup two weeks ago, Finche showed all the promise that you could expect from a horse making his Australian debut. The galloper displayed quality form overseas and looks like he could relish the wide expanses of Flemington.

Drawing barrier 15 should give Zac Purton plenty of options and don’t be surprised if Finche roars home to be right in contention in the race that stops a nation.

Don’t Discount – The Cliffsofmoher

The Cliffsofmoher (IRE) has looked terrific in his two Australian starts. (George Salpigtidis/Racing Photos)

Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2018
Current odds: $16 at BetEasy
Colours:

The second of two Lloyd Williams’ chances this Melbourne Cup, The Cliffsofmoher is a better hope in our eyes than $5.50 favourite Yucatan.

Running an admirable fourth in his Australian debut in the Caulfield Stakes, the Aidan O’Brien-trained runner rounded out the placings in the 2018 Caulfield Cup that suggested it has the staying prowess to be a quality runner in the Cup.

The two mile trip is a query, but The Cliffsofmoher is a prodigious talent that has the ability to take out a Group 1 race in Australia. Could the Melbourne Cup be the race?

You can forget about – Ace High

Ace High a horror barrier draw has put a line through Ace High’s chances in Horse Betting’s opinion. (Alice Laidlaw/Racing Photos)

Trainer: David Payne
Jockey: Tye Angland
Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2018
Current odds: $71 at Ladbrokes
Colours:

Coming into the Melbourne Cup as one of Australia’s best hopes, a horror draw on Saturday night put a line through Ace High’s chances.

The four-year-old drew barrier 22 heading into the 2018 race that stops a nation, and no other runner has won the race from a wide gate since Brew in 2000.

The 2017 Victoria Derby winner has never ran competitively in excess of the 2400m distance, and the lead-in run in the 2018 Caulfield Cup was highly disappointing.

You can disregard Ace High in the 2018 Melbourne Cup.

Historical tips to live by when betting on the Melbourne Cup

Age matters: History suggests that the Melbourne Cup is won by horses aged four to five year’s old. In the history of the event 56 percent of horses in that age bracket have won the race.

Where you jump from counts: In terms of barrier draws, five (eight wins) and ten (seven wins) have proven to be the most fruitful shoots to jump from in Melbourne Cup history.

More recently, the double figure alleys have been your best be. In the period 2002-16, 10 winners have come from barriers 14 (three wins), while barriers 13, 10 and 22 have combined for six wins.

Feminists, look away now: The Melbourne Cup is also a male dominated race.

Just 16 female horses have won the cup, three of which were fillies. Three of those victories belong to superstar mare Makybe Diva, which was also the last mare to win the race in 2005.

Favourites fair well: Going in as a short-price in most races usually suggests a horse will run well, and the Melbourne Cup is no different. The top elect going into the Cup has won 34 times and has finished inside the placings on 73 occasions.

Those who flew here are better than those who grew here: Since Irish invader Vintage Crop’s first-ever win as an international in 1993, overseas horses have made the Melbourne Cup their own.

If you include New Zealand-bred horses as overseas runners, just three horses (Rogan Josh in 1999, Viewed in 2008 and Shocking in 2009) have been an Australian-bred Melbourne Cup winners since Saintly saluted in 1996.

Previous year’s Melbourne Cup tips

  • 2017 Melbourne Cup betting market

    Best bet – Almandin

    Almandin and McEvoy celebrate 2017 Melbourne Cup
    Our man Todd Davey thinks Almandin will be doing more of this on November 7, 2017. What do you think? Comment in the box below. (Brett Holburt/Racing Photos)

    Trainer: Robert Hickmott
    Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: 1st, 2016
    Current odds: $6 at Ladbrokes
    Colours: Almandin Melbourne Cup 2017

    Almandin comes into the Melbourne Cup as the best elect to go back-to-back since the mighty mare Makybe Diva did the treble in 2003, 2004 and 2005. The eight-year-old has barely put a foot wrong since returning at Moonee Valley on August 26, recording a second on that day, a barnstorming win in the Japan Racing Association Trophy at Flemington before rounding out the first four in the Bart Cummings.

    The win at Flemington was particularly astonishing given it won by over two lengths carrying 61kg. Given the defending champ carries 56.5kg into this year’s Cup we feel the horse goes into the 2017 edition as the horse to beat.

    Best at odds – Tiberian

    Tiberian Hugh Bowman
    Hugh Bowman introduces Tiberian to picturesque Australia. Will the French raider be overawed by the Flemington straight and 100,000 people? (Pat Scala/Racing Photos)

    Trainer: Alain Couetil
    Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2017
    Current odds: $21 at Ladbrokes
    Colours: Tiberian Melbourne Cup 2017

    Beware the horse that will make its Australian debut in the biggest race of its life, but for all intents and purposes, six-year-old Tiberian could be the most credentialed horse coming into the Melbourne Cup.

    The French galloper has won four of its past five starts, only one of which was not at group level, and all of those races were at a distance of, or in excess of 2400m.

    The horse also possesses great versatility. The son of Tiberius Caesar typically likes to be on-pace, but in its Group Two Prix De Deauville victory, the horse settled back in the run before taking out the $116,000 feature. Tiberian will have no issues seeing out the distance and will be a contender at a big price.

    Don’t Discount – Johannes Vermeer

    Johannes Vermeer
    Johannes Vermeer has been impressive in its Australian campaign so far. (Brett Holburt/Racing Photos)

    Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
    Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2017
    Current odds: $10 at Ladbrokes
    Colours: Johannes Vermeer Melbourne Cup 2017

    Following a terrific second in the Caufield Stakes, Johannes Vermeer – wrongly in our eyes – entered the Caulfield Cup as the favourite for group one glory. The horse rounded out the placings in the cup, overcoming numerous obstacles and hitting the line strongly in what was an eye-catching final 200m.

    That was enough to convince us that the Melbourne Cup may not be beyond the five-year-old. The horse has yet to miss a placing since debuting in Australia and we believe it can break the winning duck in the race that stops a nation if things fall into place.

    You can forget about – Boom Time

    Boom Time
    Punters shouldn’t forget about 2017 Caulfield Cup winner Boom Time, considering the amount of money coming for horses that finished in behind it on that occasion. Photo: Racing.com

    Trainer: Lindsay Park
    Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Unraced
    Current odds: $26 at Ladbrokes
    Colours: Boom Time Melbourne Cup 2017

    Punters shouldn’t forget about 2017 Caulfield Cup winner Boom Time, which created a seismic blast a few weeks ago.

    The Lindsay Park-trained six-year-old won the Caulfield Cup at odds of $51, which was value considering its effort for fourth in the Herbert Power. Not everything went his way in the Cup either, as he was held up approaching the turn.

    Not many bets have come for Boom Time in the Melbourne Cup, but he’ll stay the distance and he has that dour attitude which could see him performance well again.

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