2023 Melb Cup Tips
2023 Melbourne Cup Field
Past Year’s Tips
More Melbourne Cup Guides
Let’s make no bones about it, you have landed here looking for a red-hot Melbourne Cup betting tip.
The HorseBetting team have been keeping up-to-date with all the lead-in events coming into the race that stops a nation so if you are punting with our tips, you can do so with confidence.
Alongside our tip for the Melbourne Cup, we have provided our best long-shot runners of the day and a candidate we feel will be simply making up the numbers on that first Tuesday of November. Keep in mind our expert Melbourne Cup tips for race day betting will drop on the Saturday November 4, 2023.
Historical tips to live by when betting on the Melbourne Cup
- Age matters
History suggests that the Melbourne Cup is won by horses aged four to five year’s old. In the history of the event 56 percent of horses in that age bracket have won the race.
- Where you jump from counts
In terms of barrier draws, five (eight wins) and ten (seven wins) have proven to be the most fruitful shoots to jump from in Melbourne Cup history.
More recently, the double figure alleys have been your best bet. In the period 2002-16, 10 winners have come from barriers 14 (three wins), while barriers 13, 10 and 22 have combined for six wins.
- Feminists, look away now
The Melbourne Cup is also a male dominated race.
Just 16 female horses have won the cup, three of which were fillies. Three of those victories belong to superstar mare Makybe Diva. Verry Elleegant winning the race in 2021 meant she was the first mare since Maybe Diva in 2005 to win the race.
- Favourites fair well
Going in as a short-price in most races usually suggests a horse will run well, and the Melbourne Cup is no different. The top elect going into the Cup has won 32 times and has finished inside the placings on 73 occasions.
Fiorente in 2013 was the last favourite to win the Melbourne Cup, paying $7.
The average winning price since 2000 is $17.45
- Those who flew here are better than those who grew here
Since Irish invader Vintage Crop’s first-ever win as an international in 1993, overseas horses have made the Melbourne Cup their own.
If you include New Zealand-bred horses as overseas runners, just three horses (Rogan Josh in 1999, Viewed in 2008 and Shocking in 2009) have been an Australian-bred Melbourne Cup winners since Saintly saluted in 1996.
Top Bookies for the 2023 Melbourne Cup
2023 Melbourne Cup Tips, Best Bets & Pen Jobs
As always, the 2023 Melbourne Cup is one of the toughest races to jag the winner. We have settled on Caulfield Cup winner Without A Fight to become the first horse since Ethereal (2001) to claim the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double. The Anthony & Sam Freedman-trained runner arrived in time to claim West Wind Blows in the shadows of the winning post to etch his name into Caulfield Cup folklore. He was only second-up in the Caulfield Cup and in the Melbourne Cup can go to another level with another run under his belt. His third-up record is bombproof, winning twice and placing in three goes. This is obviously his hardest test in terms of being a winning chance in a big race, considering he finished 13th, beaten 21.15 lengths in this race last year. Firmer going is more his go and since being under the care of Anthony & Sam Freedman, he is a different galloper. From barrier 16, Mark Zahra will go back towards the rear of the field, but if he can gain a tow into the race, we have no doubt he will stay the trip and finish over the top of his rivals once again.
One at a big price you can back with some confidence is Vow And Declare. We are giving the now eight-year-old gelding a massive push in his bid to claim a second Melbourne Cup. He put in a terrific Melbourne Cup trial when finishing second in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup on October 27. The run was massive, he was forced to travel three wide with no cover throughout, yet still had the audacity to loom up and hit the lead with 100m to go. He ran into one better on the night, with Cleveland pouncing on his vulnerability late. Barrier 19 on Tuesday is a bit of a blow, but the in-form Billy Egan will look to find cover in the three-wide moving line if possible. He is obviously proven at the 3200m, unlike a few of his rivals and he is sure to appreciate the firmer deck. A similar effort to what eh put forward in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, will have Vow And Declare there when the whips are cracking. In our eyes, he is the best each-way play in the Melbourne Cup.
The pen job of the Melbourne Cup, believe it or not is reigning champ, Gold Trip. The reigning Melbourne Cup champion is deserving of being allowed the 57.5kg based on how easily he disposed of his rivals in last year’s race. This doesn’t look to be as difficult as last year, but he will not be getting the conditions that suited him perfectly 12 months ago. In nine starts on Good tracks, he has just one win and three minors to his to his name, but that sole victory did come three runs back when making a mess of his rivals in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m). His run in the Cox Plate (2040m) was a perfect Melbourne Cup trial when finishing on the heels of the the first four, beaten 1.4 lengths. Gold Trip is obviously proven at the trip and with James McDonald on board, will be there or thereabouts when the whips are cracking. The 58.5kg shouldn’t be too much of an issue, but the firm deck has us worried about his winning chances. We’re leaving Gold Trip out of our top four, at our own peril.
Melbourne Cup – #3 Without A Fight (16)
7yo Gelding | T: Anthony & Sam Freedman | J: Mark Zahra (56.5kg)
Melbourne Cup – #9 Vow And Declare (19)
8yo Gelding | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Billy Egan (53kg)
Melbourne Cup – #1 Gold Trip (2)
6yo Horse | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: James McDonald (58.5kg)
2023 Melbourne Cup Field
Previous year’s Melbourne Cup tips
- The race that stops the nation, the 2022 Melbourne Cup looks to be a an open event outside of race favourite Deauville Legend. We are happy to side with the Anthony & Sam Freedman-trained Realm Of Flowers following her run in The Metrop. Whilst the likes of Vow And Declare, Gold Trip and Deauville Legend cannot be ignored.
One runner you can put the pen through at a short quote is Montefilia. There’s no doubting her ability, but only superstar mares can carry a big weight and win the Melbourne Cup (Makybe Diva & Elleegant).
Put A Pen Through
Race 7 – #4 Montefilia (11)
5yo Mare | T: David Payne | J: Jason Collett (55.5kg)
Race 7 – #24 Realm Of Flowers (5)
6yo Mare | T: Anthony & Sam Freedman | J: Damien Thornton (50kg)
Race 7 – #10 Vow And Declare (4)
7yo Gelding | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Blake Shinn (54kg)
- The race that stops the nation, the 2021 Melbourne looks to be a formality for the Peter Moody-trained Incentivise. He was as dominant a winner as you could see in the Caulfield Cup and the success story looks set to continue here. Brett Prebble will need to be patient from barrier 16 to slot in up on speed with cover and similar to the Caulfield Cup, we expect Incentivise to be pulling away from the likes of Tralee Rose and Persan.Melbourne Cup Best BetIncentivise $2.40 with SportsbetMelbourne Cup Next BestTralee Rose $16.00 with SportsbetMelbourne Cup Best ValuePersan $26.00 with Sportsbet
Best bet – Mer De Glace
Trainer: Hisashi Shimizu Jockey: Damian Lane Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: On debut Current odds: $9 at Bet365 Colours:
Those old enough to remember will recognise the dominant Caulfield Cup win from Mer De Glace and reminisce about the big mare Empire Rose. Empire Rose went on to win the cup in a different era, after a similarly devastating trouncing of the Mackinnon Stakes field on the Saturday prior. That year Empire Rose had to hold off a determined Natski on the line over the extra journey but still got the job done.
This year the same doubts have abounded in the past few days about the Japanese horse running out the full 3200m, and a wet track has not helped allay those concerns. But Mer De Glace (pronounced Murder Glass) is all class and will prove dominant over a field that has evolved in 2019 in to a mediocre European staying race, slightly above bumper grade.
Mer De Glace is all class.
Best at odds – Twilight Payment
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien Jockey: Hugh Bowman Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: On debut Current odds: $41 at Neds Colours:
Twilight Payment races in those familiar colours that Rekindling carried to victory in the 2017 Melbourne Cup like so many before him, and comes from the all conquering O’Brien stables who are on an international major race heater, having just taken out the US Breeders Cup.
The horse just batted away at his last start at The Curragh in Ireland, but was on a firm track and had won the two prior starts impressively on rain affected ground. Gets the desired surface in this years cup off a six week freshen up, and is yet to be unplaced over this distance.
Horse – tick. Trainer – tick. Jockey – meh ….
Would have loved to have seen a different jockey on Twilight Payment other than Hugh Bowman who is still in Post Winx Distress Syndrome (PWDS). But we don’t own the horse and we can’t book the pilot, so we’re stuck with Hugh. Hugh doesn’t like it too tough these days, so here’s hoping the $8 Million is enough to get the best out of him. The horse is definitely good enough.
Don’t Discount – Prince Of Arran
Trainer: Charlie Fellowes Jockey: Michael Walker Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Third in 2018 Current odds: $19 at Sportsbet Colours:
Prince Of Arran was third over the line in the 2018 Melbourne Cup and will be aiming to do what no horse since Gold And Black has been able to achieve since 1977 – come back and win the cup after running second or third the year before. There has of course been horses that have won and then won the cup again like the mighty legend Makybe Diva; but no horse has run a place and come back and won the race for over 40 years.
There has of course been many a horse who has placed in the cup one year, and then placed again the following year or years; and none more so than the sentimental people’s champion Red Cadeaux, and more recently Max Dynamite – notably both internationals like Prince Of Arran.
Prince Of Arran comes in to the race this year after winning the Geelong Cup in impressive fashion, and although the race is no longer much of a form guide for the Melbourne Cup; the win was good enough to suggest the horse is going as well as last year when he won the Lexus prior to running third in the cup. Has no problems with the distance and goes well down under.
You can pen – Vow And Declare
Trainer: Dan O’Brien Jockey: Craig Williams Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: On debut in 2019 Current odds: $12 at BetEasy Colours:
Coming into the Melbourne Cup as one of Australia’s best hopes, Vow And Declare started well in the market in the 2019 Caulfield Cup mostly due to the lightweight, and although finishing second; the run of the winner was much better. The lightly raced 4yo gelding is out of his depth in this race, and absolutely no value at $12.
The Queensland Derby place getter won the 3000m Tattersall’s Cup at Eagle Farm which suggests the trip will be no obstacle, but Vow And Declare has never seen a heavy track on race day; and his only win on soft was in a 2300m maiden at Warrnambool against plodders. Craig Williams would have to produce the ride of the century to get this home.
You can disregard Vow And Declare in the 2019 Melbourne Cup.
Best bet – Marmelo
Trainer: Hughie Morrison Jockey: Hugh Bowman Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: 9th, 2017 Current odds: $16 at Ladbrokes Colours:
We loved last year’s favourite coming into the 2017 Melbourne Cup and this year presents as an even better hope heading into 2018.
Finishing an admirable eighth in last year’s Cup, Marmelo has finished inside the top-two in four runs in 2018, and in the race that stops a nation this year he gets arguably the world’s best jockey Hugh Bowman taking the ride, as he did last year.
Jumping from an ideal barrier, having last year’s quality run in the book and the trusted hands of Hughy taking the ride once again – we love Marmelo’s chances of delivering in the Melbourne Cup on the second attempt.
Best at odds – Finche
Trainer: Chris Waller Jockey: Zac Purton Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2018 Current odds: $26 at Ladbrokes Colours:
Many have put forwards Finche’s name as a stayer to watch in 2019, but we aren’t discounting the Waller import heading into the race that stops a nation.
Working home well to round out the placings in the Geelong Cup two weeks ago, Finche showed all the promise that you could expect from a horse making his Australian debut. The galloper displayed quality form overseas and looks like he could relish the wide expanses of Flemington.
Drawing barrier 15 should give Zac Purton plenty of options and don’t be surprised if Finche roars home to be right in contention in the race that stops a nation.
Don’t Discount – The Cliffsofmoher
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien Jockey: Ryan Moore strong>Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2018 Current odds: $16 at BetEasy Colours:
The second of two Lloyd Williams’ chances this Melbourne Cup, The Cliffsofmoher is a better hope in our eyes than $5.50 favourite Yucatan.
Running an admirable fourth in his Australian debut in the Caulfield Stakes, the Aidan O’Brien-trained runner rounded out the placings in the 2018 Caulfield Cup that suggested it has the staying prowess to be a quality runner in the Cup.
The two mile trip is a query, but The Cliffsofmoher is a prodigious talent that has the ability to take out a Group 1 race in Australia. Could the Melbourne Cup be the race?
You can forget about – Ace High
Trainer: David Payne Jockey: Tye Angland Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2018 Current odds: $71 at Ladbrokes Colours:
Coming into the Melbourne Cup as one of Australia’s best hopes, a horror draw on Saturday night put a line through Ace High’s chances.
The four-year-old drew barrier 22 heading into the 2018 race that stops a nation, and no other runner has won the race from a wide gate since Brew in 2000.
The 2017 Victoria Derby winner has never ran competitively in excess of the 2400m distance, and the lead-in run in the 2018 Caulfield Cup was highly disappointing.
You can disregard Ace High in the 2018 Melbourne Cup.
Best bet – Almandin
Trainer: Robert Hickmott Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: 1st, 2016 Current odds: $6 at Ladbrokes Colours:
Almandin comes into the Melbourne Cup as the best elect to go back-to-back since the mighty mare Makybe Diva did the treble in 2003, 2004 and 2005. The eight-year-old has barely put a foot wrong since returning at Moonee Valley on August 26, recording a second on that day, a barnstorming win in the Japan Racing Association Trophy at Flemington before rounding out the first four in the Bart Cummings.
The win at Flemington was particularly astonishing given it won by over two lengths carrying 61kg. Given the defending champ carries 56.5kg into this year’s Cup we feel the horse goes into the 2017 edition as the horse to beat.
Best at odds – Tiberian
Trainer: Alain Couetil Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2017 Current odds: $21 at Ladbrokes Colours:
Beware the horse that will make its Australian debut in the biggest race of its life, but for all intents and purposes, six-year-old Tiberian could be the most credentialed horse coming into the Melbourne Cup.
The French galloper has won four of its past five starts, only one of which was not at group level, and all of those races were at a distance of, or in excess of 2400m.
The horse also possesses great versatility. The son of Tiberius Caesar typically likes to be on-pace, but in its Group Two Prix De Deauville victory, the horse settled back in the run before taking out the $116,000 feature. Tiberian will have no issues seeing out the distance and will be a contender at a big price.
Don’t Discount – Johannes Vermeer
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2017 Current odds: $10 at Ladbrokes Colours:
Following a terrific second in the Caufield Stakes, Johannes Vermeer – wrongly in our eyes – entered the Caulfield Cup as the favourite for group one glory. The horse rounded out the placings in the cup, overcoming numerous obstacles and hitting the line strongly in what was an eye-catching final 200m.
That was enough to convince us that the Melbourne Cup may not be beyond the five-year-old. The horse has yet to miss a placing since debuting in Australia and we believe it can break the winning duck in the race that stops a nation if things fall into place.
You can forget about – Boom Time
Trainer: Lindsay Park Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Unraced Current odds: $26 at Ladbrokes Colours
Punters shouldn’t forget about 2017 Caulfield Cup winner Boom Time, which created a seismic blast a few weeks ago.
The Lindsay Park-trained six-year-old won the Caulfield Cup at odds of $51, which was value considering its effort for fourth in the Herbert Power. Not everything went his way in the Cup either, as he was held up approaching the turn.
Not many bets have come for Boom Time in the Melbourne Cup, but he’ll stay the distance and he has that dour attitude which could see him performance well again.