Let’s make no bones about it, you have landed here looking for a red-hot Melbourne Cup betting tip.
The HorseBetting team have been keeping up-to-date with all the lead-in events coming into the race that stops a nation so if you are punting with our tips, you can do so with confidence.
Alongside our tip for the Melbourne Cup, we have provided our best long-shot runners of the day and a candidate we feel will be simply making up the numbers on that first Tuesday of November. Keep in mind our expert Melbourne Cup tips for race day betting will drop on the Sunday before November 3.
Historical tips to live by when betting on the Melbourne Cup
- Age matters
History suggests that the Melbourne Cup is won by horses aged four to five year’s old. In the history of the event 56 percent of horses in that age bracket have won the race.
- Where you jump from counts
In terms of barrier draws, five (eight wins) and ten (seven wins) have proven to be the most fruitful shoots to jump from in Melbourne Cup history.
More recently, the double figure alleys have been your best bet. In the period 2002-16, 10 winners have come from barriers 14 (three wins), while barriers 13, 10 and 22 have combined for six wins.
- Feminists, look away now
The Melbourne Cup is also a male dominated race.
Just 16 female horses have won the cup, three of which were fillies. Three of those victories belong to superstar mare Makybe Diva, which was also the last mare to win the race in 2005.
- Favourites fair well
Going in as a short-price in most races usually suggests a horse will run well, and the Melbourne Cup is no different. The top elect going into the Cup has won 34 times and has finished inside the placings on 73 occasions.
- Those who flew here are better than those who grew here
Since Irish invader Vintage Crop’s first-ever win as an international in 1993, overseas horses have made the Melbourne Cup their own.
If you include New Zealand-bred horses as overseas runners, just three horses (Rogan Josh in 1999, Viewed in 2008 and Shocking in 2009) have been an Australian-bred Melbourne Cup winners since Saintly saluted in 1996.
Top Bookies for the 2020 Melbourne Cup
Our Top Melbourne Cup Bookmakers
2020 Melbourne Cup Tips, Best Bets & Pen Jobs
As is always the case in the Melbourne Cup, it is a wide open affair and we have struggled to split the top two or three. There’s plenty of winning chances in the race, but we are going to side narrowly with Ashrun after his strong win in the Lexus on Saturday. We are putting plenty of faith in the camp who knows what it takes to train a Melbourne Cup winner, and we think the big weight relief will be huge. He’s rock-hard fit and ready to tackle 3200m.
Surprise Baby is our next pick in the race, considering he has been targetted towards this for a long time.
Warning is our roughie. Russian Camelot is a consistent horse who also has been set for this and is a huge chance, while Tiger Moth has that big unknown that we aren’t willing to ignore.
2020 Melbourne Cup Tips
|2020 Group 1 Melbourne Cup $100 Betting Strategy|
|$20 Win||Surprise Baby|
|$30 Boxed Trifecta||13-15-18-19-21 (50%)|
2020 Melbourne Cup Odds
Previous year’s Melbourne Cup tips
2019 Melbourne Cup Tips, Best Bets & Pen Jobs
Best bet – Mer De Glace
Trainer: Hisashi Shimizu Jockey: Damian Lane Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: On debut Current odds: $9 at Bet365 Colours:
Those old enough to remember will recognise the dominant Caulfield Cup win from Mer De Glace and reminisce about the big mare Empire Rose. Empire Rose went on to win the cup in a different era, after a similarly devastating trouncing of the Mackinnon Stakes field on the Saturday prior. That year Empire Rose had to hold off a determined Natski on the line over the extra journey but still got the job done.
This year the same doubts have abounded in the past few days about the Japanese horse running out the full 3200m, and a wet track has not helped allay those concerns. But Mer De Glace (pronounced Murder Glass) is all class and will prove dominant over a field that has evolved in 2019 in to a mediocre European staying race, slightly above bumper grade.
Mer De Glace is all class.
Best at odds – Twilight Payment
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien Jockey: Hugh Bowman Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: On debut Current odds: $41 at Neds Colours:
Twilight Payment races in those familiar colours that Rekindling carried to victory in the 2017 Melbourne Cup like so many before him, and comes from the all conquering O’Brien stables who are on an international major race heater, having just taken out the US Breeders Cup.
The horse just batted away at his last start at The Curragh in Ireland, but was on a firm track and had won the two prior starts impressively on rain affected ground. Gets the desired surface in this years cup off a six week freshen up, and is yet to be unplaced over this distance.
Horse – tick. Trainer – tick. Jockey – meh ….
Would have loved to have seen a different jockey on Twilight Payment other than Hugh Bowman who is still in Post Winx Distress Syndrome (PWDS). But we don’t own the horse and we can’t book the pilot, so we’re stuck with Hugh. Hugh doesn’t like it too tough these days, so here’s hoping the $8 Million is enough to get the best out of him. The horse is definitely good enough.
Don’t Discount – Prince Of Arran
Trainer: Charlie Fellowes Jockey: Michael Walker Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Third in 2018 Current odds: $19 at Sportsbet Colours:
Prince Of Arran was third over the line in the 2018 Melbourne Cup and will be aiming to do what no horse since Gold And Black has been able to achieve since 1977 – come back and win the cup after running second or third the year before. There has of course been horses that have won and then won the cup again like the mighty legend Makybe Diva; but no horse has run a place and come back and won the race for over 40 years.
There has of course been many a horse who has placed in the cup one year, and then placed again the following year or years; and none more so than the sentimental people’s champion Red Cadeaux, and more recently Max Dynamite – notably both internationals like Prince Of Arran.
Prince Of Arran comes in to the race this year after winning the Geelong Cup in impressive fashion, and although the race is no longer much of a form guide for the Melbourne Cup; the win was good enough to suggest the horse is going as well as last year when he won the Lexus prior to running third in the cup. Has no problems with the distance and goes well down under.
You can pen – Vow And Declare
Trainer: Dan O’Brien Jockey: Craig Williams Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: On debut in 2019 Current odds: $12 at BetEasy Colours:
Coming into the Melbourne Cup as one of Australia’s best hopes, Vow And Declare started well in the market in the 2019 Caulfield Cup mostly due to the lightweight, and although finishing second; the run of the winner was much better. The lightly raced 4yo gelding is out of his depth in this race, and absolutely no value at $12.
The Queensland Derby place getter won the 3000m Tattersall’s Cup at Eagle Farm which suggests the trip will be no obstacle, but Vow And Declare has never seen a heavy track on race day; and his only win on soft was in a 2300m maiden at Warrnambool against plodders. Craig Williams would have to produce the ride of the century to get this home.
You can disregard Vow And Declare in the 2019 Melbourne Cup.
Best bet – Marmelo
Trainer: Hughie Morrison Jockey: Hugh Bowman Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: 9th, 2017 Current odds: $16 at Ladbrokes Colours:
We loved last year’s favourite coming into the 2017 Melbourne Cup and this year presents as an even better hope heading into 2018.
Finishing an admirable eighth in last year’s Cup, Marmelo has finished inside the top-two in four runs in 2018, and in the race that stops a nation this year he gets arguably the world’s best jockey Hugh Bowman taking the ride, as he did last year.
Jumping from an ideal barrier, having last year’s quality run in the book and the trusted hands of Hughy taking the ride once again – we love Marmelo’s chances of delivering in the Melbourne Cup on the second attempt.
Best at odds – Finche
Trainer: Chris Waller Jockey: Zac Purton Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2018 Current odds: $26 at Ladbrokes Colours:
Many have put forwards Finche’s name as a stayer to watch in 2019, but we aren’t discounting the Waller import heading into the race that stops a nation.
Working home well to round out the placings in the Geelong Cup two weeks ago, Finche showed all the promise that you could expect from a horse making his Australian debut. The galloper displayed quality form overseas and looks like he could relish the wide expanses of Flemington.
Drawing barrier 15 should give Zac Purton plenty of options and don’t be surprised if Finche roars home to be right in contention in the race that stops a nation.
Don’t Discount – The Cliffsofmoher
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien Jockey: Ryan Moore strong>Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2018 Current odds: $16 at BetEasy Colours:
Running an admirable fourth in his Australian debut in the Caulfield Stakes, the Aidan O’Brien-trained runner rounded out the placings in the 2018 Caulfield Cup that suggested it has the staying prowess to be a quality runner in the Cup.
The two mile trip is a query, but The Cliffsofmoher is a prodigious talent that has the ability to take out a Group 1 race in Australia. Could the Melbourne Cup be the race?
You can forget about – Ace High
Trainer: David Payne Jockey: Tye Angland Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2018 Current odds: $71 at Ladbrokes Colours:
Coming into the Melbourne Cup as one of Australia’s best hopes, a horror draw on Saturday night put a line through Ace High’s chances.
The four-year-old drew barrier 22 heading into the 2018 race that stops a nation, and no other runner has won the race from a wide gate since Brew in 2000.
The 2017 Victoria Derby winner has never ran competitively in excess of the 2400m distance, and the lead-in run in the 2018 Caulfield Cup was highly disappointing.
You can disregard Ace High in the 2018 Melbourne Cup.
2017 Melbourne Cup betting market
Best bet – Almandin
Trainer: Robert Hickmott Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: 1st, 2016 Current odds: $6 at Ladbrokes Colours:
Almandin comes into the Melbourne Cup as the best elect to go back-to-back since the mighty mare Makybe Diva did the treble in 2003, 2004 and 2005. The eight-year-old has barely put a foot wrong since returning at Moonee Valley on August 26, recording a second on that day, a barnstorming win in the Japan Racing Association Trophy at Flemington before rounding out the first four in the Bart Cummings.
The win at Flemington was particularly astonishing given it won by over two lengths carrying 61kg. Given the defending champ carries 56.5kg into this year’s Cup we feel the horse goes into the 2017 edition as the horse to beat.
Best at odds – Tiberian
Trainer: Alain Couetil Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2017 Current odds: $21 at Ladbrokes Colours:
Beware the horse that will make its Australian debut in the biggest race of its life, but for all intents and purposes, six-year-old Tiberian could be the most credentialed horse coming into the Melbourne Cup.
The French galloper has won four of its past five starts, only one of which was not at group level, and all of those races were at a distance of, or in excess of 2400m.
The horse also possesses great versatility. The son of Tiberius Caesar typically likes to be on-pace, but in its Group Two Prix De Deauville victory, the horse settled back in the run before taking out the $116,000 feature. Tiberian will have no issues seeing out the distance and will be a contender at a big price.
Don’t Discount – Johannes Vermeer
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Debuting in 2017 Current odds: $10 at Ladbrokes Colours:
Following a terrific second in the Caufield Stakes, Johannes Vermeer – wrongly in our eyes – entered the Caulfield Cup as the favourite for group one glory. The horse rounded out the placings in the cup, overcoming numerous obstacles and hitting the line strongly in what was an eye-catching final 200m.
That was enough to convince us that the Melbourne Cup may not be beyond the five-year-old. The horse has yet to miss a placing since debuting in Australia and we believe it can break the winning duck in the race that stops a nation if things fall into place.
You can forget about – Boom Time
Trainer: Lindsay Park Best previous Melbourne Cup finish: Unraced Current odds: $26 at Ladbrokes Colours
Punters shouldn’t forget about 2017 Caulfield Cup winner Boom Time, which created a seismic blast a few weeks ago.
The Lindsay Park-trained six-year-old won the Caulfield Cup at odds of $51, which was value considering its effort for fourth in the Herbert Power. Not everything went his way in the Cup either, as he was held up approaching the turn.
Not many bets have come for Boom Time in the Melbourne Cup, but he’ll stay the distance and he has that dour attitude which could see him performance well again.