Melbourne Cup favourites
Melbourne Cup favourites are anointed in the hours after the running of the 3200m feature each year. As time progresses and more staying races are run, the form is assessed and the Melbourne Cup favourite might be changed. Read on to learn about the Melbourne Cup favourites for 2025 and the historical results of the bookies pick in the race that stops a nation.
2024 Melbourne Cup favourite
For a second straight year, The Willie Mullins-trained Vauban will be the favourite in the Melbourne Cup.
Betting on Melbourne Cup favourites
THE Melbourne Cup is the one time of the year that the casual fan opens up the wallet and has a flutter.
Naturally the average punter is going to turn to the horses that feature towards the top of the market, and if there’s an outright favourite that horse is going to see the majority of the once-a-year money.
We’ve taken a look at how the favourites have fared in recent Melbourne Cup history to see if the short price is justified.
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2024 Melbourne Cup Field
1. Vauban (11)
- T: Willie Mullins
- J: William Buick
- W: 55.5kg
- F: 21342
- Age: 7YO
- Colour: Chestnut
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Galiway (GB)
- Dam: Waldfest (GB)
2. Buckaroo (21)
- T: Chris Waller
- J: Joao Moreira
- W: 54.5kg
- F: 22118
- Age: 6YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Fastnet Rock
- Dam: Roheryn (IRE)
3. Circle Of Fire (24)
- T: Ciaron Maher
- J: Mark Zahra
- W: 54.5kg
- F: 098×1
- Age: 5YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Horse
- Sire: Almanzor (FR)
- Dam: Fiery Sunset (GB)
4. Warp Speed (3)
- T: Noboru Takagi
- J: Akira Sugawara
- W: 54.5kg
- F: 0x523
- Age: 5YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Horse
- Sire: Drefong (USA)
- Dam: Deep Love (JPN)
5. Kovalica (17)
- T: Chris Waller
- J: Damian Lane
- W: 53.5kg
- F: 6243x
- Age: 5YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Ocean Park (NZ)
- Dam: Vitesse (NZ)
6. Sharp ‘N’ Smart (15)
- T: Graeme & Deborah Rogerson
- J: Michael Dee
- W: 53.5kg
- F: 3020x
- Age: 5YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Redwood (GB)
- Dam: Queen Margaret (NZ)
7. Just Fine (13)
- T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
- J: Jye McNeil
- W: 53kg
- F: 01050
- Age: 7YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Sea The Stars (IRE)
- Dam: Bint Almatar (USA)
8. Land Legend (18)
- T: Chris Waller
- J: Zac Purton
- W: 53kg
- F: 3160x
- Age: 5YO
- Colour: Chestnut
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Galileo (IRE)
- Dam: Landikusic (IRE)
9. Absurde (7)
- T: Willie Mullins
- J: Kerrin McEvoy
- W: 52.5kg
- F: x14x1
- Age: 7YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Fastnet Rock
- Dam: Incroyable (USA)
10. Athabascan (2)
- T: John O’Shea & Tom Charlton
- J: Zac Lloyd
- W: 52kg
- F: 1008x
- Age: 6YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Almanzor (FR)
- Dam: Alzubra (GB)
11. Knight’s Choice (6)
- T: John Symons & Sheila Laxon
- J: Robbie Dolan
- W: 51.5kg
- F: 5009x
- Age: 5YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Extreme Choice
- Dam: Midnight Pearl
12. Okita Soushi (10)
- T: Ciaron Maher
- J: Jamie Kah
- W: 51kg
- F: 1208x
- Age: 7YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Horse
- Sire: Galileo (IRE)
- Dam: Amicus
13. Onesmoothoperator (12)
- T: Brian Ellison
- J: Craig Williams
- W: 51kg
- F: 1471x
- Age: 7YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Dialed In (USA)
- Dam: Sueno D’Oro (USA)
14. Zardozi (4)
- T: James Cummings
- J: Andrea Atzeni
- W: 51kg
- F: 54256
- Age: 4YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Mare
- Sire: Kingman (GB)
- Dam: Chanderi (GB)
15. Sea King (1)
- T: Harry Eustace
- J: Hollie Doyle
- W: 50.5kg
- F: 1×631
- Age: 6YO
- Colour: Brown
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Sea The Stars (IRE)
- Dam: Pamona (IRE)
16. Valiant King (22)
- T: Chris Waller
- J: Craig Newitt
- W: 50.5kg
- F: 906×6
- Age: 5YO
- Colour: Grey
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Roaring Lion (USA)
- Dam: Assembly (USA)
17. Fancy Man (19)
- T: Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald
- J: Ron Stewart
- W: 50kg
- F: 635×0
- Age: 7YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Pride of Dubai
- Dam: Fancy (IRE)
18. Interpretation (14)
- T: Ciaron Maher
- J: Teo Nugent
- W: 50kg
- F: 26800
- Age: 7YO
- Colour: Brown
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Galileo (IRE)
- Dam: Daldiyna (FR)
19. Manzoice (8)
- T: Chris Waller
- J: Declan Bates
- W: 50kg
- F: 7032x
- Age: 5YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Almanzor (FR)
- Dam: Choice (NZ)
20. Mostly Cloudy (16)
- T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
- J: Karis Teetan
- W: 50kg
- F: 044×2
- Age: 6YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Harzand (IRE)
- Dam: Clarinda (FR)
21. Positivity (20)
- T: Andrew Forsman
- J: Winona Costin
- W: 50kg
- F: 8712x
- Age: 4YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Mare
- Sire: Almanzor (FR)
- Dam: Pussy O’Reilly (NZ)
22. Saint George (9)
- T: Ciaron Maher
- J: Tyler Schiller
- W: 50kg
- F: 5948x
- Age: 5YO
- Colour: Grey
- Sex: Horse
- Sire: Roaring Lion (USA)
- Dam: Lady Dragon (IRE)
23. The Map (23)
- T: Dan Clarken & Oopy MacGillivray
- J: Rachel King
- W: 50kg
- F: 6509x
- Age: 6YO
- Colour: Bay
- Sex: Mare
- Sire: Alpine Eagle
- Dam: This Moment
How have the most recent Melbourne Cup favourites fared?
It may be surprising to punters to find out that just one horse in the last 10 years has registered a win as the favourite in the Melbourne Cup.
Fiorente all the way back in 2013 as a $7 favourite at top horse racing bookmakers was the only time this decade a top elect has got the win, with Incentivise (2021) next best with a second place finish and Hartnell (2015) and So You Think (2010) having third-placed finishes.
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How often do favourites win the Melbourne Cup?
As of 2024, the starting favourite has won 34 of 163 Melbourne Cups, which works out to be just under a 1/4 shot.
Typically any horse in a 24-horse field is going to jump at long odds, but these odds shorten considerably when the once-a-year backers place their bets on whatever is on top of the betting market.
Fiorente in 2013 was the last time a favourite saluted in the Melbourne Cup, which means we’re overdue for another top elect to win in the race that stops a nation.
Recent Melbourne Cup favourites & their finishing order
| Horse | Year | Finished | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deauville Legend | 2023 | 14th | $5.50 |
| Deauville Legend | 2022 | 4th | $4.40 |
| Incentivise | 2021 | 2nd | $2.50 |
| Surprise Baby | 2020 | 13th | $6 |
| Finche | 2019 | 7th | $8.50 |
| Yucatan | 2018 | 11th | $7 |
| Marmelo | 2017 | 9th | $8.50 |
| Hartnell | 2016 | 3rd | $5.50 |
| Fame Game | 2015 | 13th | $5 |
| Admire Ratki | 2014 | Retired | $5.50 |
| Fiorente | 2013 | 1st | $7 |
| Dunaden | 2012 | 14th | $7 |
| Americain | 2011 | 5th | $5 |
| So You Think | 2010 | 3rd | $3 |
| Alcopop | 2009 | 6th | $4.80 |
| Mad Rush | 2008 | 7th | $5.50 |
Shortest Melbourne Cup Favourites by Odds
| Year | Favourite(s) | Place |
|---|---|---|
| 1930 | Phar Lap (8/11, $1.70) | 1ST |
| 1929 | Phar Lap (Evens, $2) | 3rd |
| 1912 | Duke Foote (6/4, $2.50) | Unplaced |
| 1901 | Revenue (7/4, $2.70) | 1ST |
| 1917 | Lanius (7/4, $2.70) | 6th |
| 1925 | Manfred (7/4, $2.70) | 2nd |
| 1940 | Beau Vite (7/4, $2.70) | 4th |
| 1948 | Howe (7/4, $2.70) | 5th |
| 1956 | Redcraze (7/4, $2.70) | 2nd |
| 1971 | Gay Icarus (7/4, $2.70) | 9th |
| 2021 | Incentivise ($2.90) | 2nd |
| 1862 | Archer (2/1, $3) | 1ST |
| 1863 | Musidora (2/1ef, $3) & Rose of Denmark (2/1ef, $3) | 2nd & 3rd |
| 1869 | Circassian (2/1, $3) | Unplaced |
| 1874 | Goldsborough (2/1, $3) | 7th |
| 1955 | Rising Fast (2/1, $3) | 2nd |
| 1969 | Tails (2/1, $3) | 7th |
| 2010 | So You Think ($3) | 3rd |
| 1908 | Alawa (9/4, $3.20) | 5th |
| 1924 | Spearfelt (9/4, $3.20) | 3rd |
| 1926 | Pantheon (9/4, $3.20) | 3rd |
| 1928 | Strephon (9/4, $3.20) | 2nd |
| 1958 | Yeman (9/4, $3.20) | 4th |
| 1963 | Summer Regent (9/4, $3.20) | 22nd |
| 1970 | Voleur (9/4, $3.20) | 6th |
| 1992 | Veandercross (9/4, $3.20) | 2nd |
Melbourne Cup Favourites Under $5 since 1960
| Year | Favourite(s) | Place |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Deauville Legend ($4.40) | 4th |
| 2021 | Incentivise ($2.90) | 2nd |
| 2010 | So You Think ($3) | 3rd |
| 2009 | Alcopop ($4.80) | 6th |
| 2007 | Master O’Reilly ($3.80) | 8th |
| 2005 | Makybe Diva ($4.40) | 1ST |
| 2004 | Makybe Diva ($3.60) | 1ST |
| 1999 | Sky Heights (7/2, $4.50) | 17th |
| 1997 | Might And Power (7/2, $4.50) | 1ST |
| 1995 | Double Trigger (7/2, $4.50) | 17th |
| 1992 | Veandercross (9/4, $3.20) | 2nd |
| 1991 | Let’s Elope (3/1, $4) | 1ST |
| 1980 | Hyperno (3/1, $4) | 7th |
| 1979 | Dulcify (3/1, $4) | FTF |
| 1977 | Gold and Black (7/2, $4.50) | 1ST |
| 1975 | Suleiman (11/4, $3.70) | 4th |
| 1974 | Leilani (7/2, $4.50) | 2nd |
| 1973 | Glengowan (5/2, $3.50) | 2nd |
| 1972 | Magnifique (7/2, $4.50) | 2nd |
| 1971 | Gay Icarus (7/4, $2.70) | 9th |
| 1970 | Voleur (9/4, $3.20) | 6th |
| 1969 | Tails (2/1, $3) | 7th |
| 1964 | Sir Dane (3/1, $4) | 24th |
| 1963 | Summer Regent (9/4, $3.20) | 22nd |
| 1962 | Even Stevens (3/1, $4) | 1ST |
| 1960 | Tulloch (3/1, $4) | 7th |
Melbourne Cup Guides
- Melbourne Cup Odds Comparison
- Melbourne Cup Finishing Order
- Melbourne Cup Betting Guide
- Melbourne Cup Order of Entry
- Melbourne Cup Betting Tips
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