2022 Melbourne Cup full preview & betting tips | November 1
| What | 2022 Melbourne Cup |
| Where | Flemington Racecourse – 448 Epsom Rd, Flemington, VIC 3031 |
| When | Tuesday, November 1, 2022 |
| Prizemoney | $7,750,000 |
| Distance | 3200m |
| Status | Group 1 |
| Conditions | Handicap |
| 2021 Winner | Verry Elleegant (19) | Jockey: James McDonald (56.5kg) | Trainer: Chris Waller |
The Melbourne Cup, the race that stops the nation is finally upon us.
24 horses, 24 jockeys, 17 trainers and a plethora of connections will be looking to etch their name into equine immortality on Tuesday at Flemington and claim their fair share of the $7.75 million on offer.
Online bookmakers have the import from the James Ferguson yard, Deauville Legend as a $3.90 favourite for the Cup, whilst Montefilia ($11), Without A Fight ($11), Gold Trip ($12) and Realm Of Flowers ($14) are the best of the rest in what looks to be an open edition of the Cup outside of the favourite.
Knights Order was always going to be the key speed influence in the Melbourne Cup and having drawn barrier 24, it made his job to get across the front of the field a touch harder. Look for Point Nepean, Smokin Romans and Serpentine to all be in a prominent position upon settling.
Whilst the likes of Realm Of Flowers, Duais, Montefilia and Daqiansweet Junior will be settled in the second-half of the field.
Keep reading for our full runner-by-runner preview of the 2022 Melbourne Cup and $100 betting strategy.
Gold Trip
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Horse
- Sire: Outstrip (GB)
- Dam: Sarvana (USA)
1. Gold Trip (14)
5yo H | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Mark Zahra (57.5kg)
The topweight in the 2022 Melbourne Cup is the Caulfield Cup runner up, Gold Trip. The five-year-old from the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace yard was a hard watch for those who backed him in the Cox Plate at his previous start, but his run in the Caulfield Cup has him right in a race like the Melbourne Cup. The five-year-old looks set to handle the rain-affected track with great aplomb and with Mark Zahra on board from barrier 14 is sure to be given a peach of a steer. The standout fault in Gold Trip coming into a race like this is he has won just once in 15 attempts and been placed on eight other occasions. It seems the wetter the better for Gold trip and if Mark Zahra can have settled with cover in the moving line, his second career victory might just come in a Melbourne Cup.
Duais
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Mare
- Sire: Shamus Award
- Dam: Meerlust
2. Duais (10)
5yo M | T: Edward Cummings | J: Hugh Bowman (55.5kg)
Edward Cummings will be looking to follow in the footsteps of his grandfather Bart Cummings, when he saddles up Duais in the Melbourne Cup. The five-year-old mare was simply set too much of a task from the rear of the field in the Caulfield Cup and did well enough to suggest the 3200m she gains on Tuesday will be right up her alley. The big concern is the track conditions she will face, she handled the Soft 6 at Caulfield well enough, but certainly does not want it any worse than that in the Cup. She is arguably one of the leading hopes in terms of the locals and if Hugh Bowman can have Duais settled two pairs closer than what she was in the Caulfield Cup, on talent alone she is right up to the standard required to win a Melbourne Cup.
Knights Order
- Age: 7YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: So You Think (NZ)
- Dam: Lamanka Lass
3. Knights Order (24)
7yo G | T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | J: Tim Clark (55.5kg)
The Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained Knights Order stuck on gamely in the Caulfield Cup after leading the field up on a moderate tempo and looked to still be hitting the line with great intent over 2400m. He is proven at 3200m having won the Group 1 Sydney Cup during the autumn and the Brisbane Cup in June 2021. He was always going to be one of the key speed influencers in the race, but from barrier 24 Tim Clark will have no other alternative but to roll forward and take up the running. He has two wins and two minor placings to his name on Heavy ground which he might get on Tuesday. We expect he will make this a genuinely run two-mile event and despite not having him in our top four, Knights Order has the runs on the board to take out the Melbourne Cup.
Montefilia
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Mare
- Sire: Kermadec (NZ)
- Dam: Banu Wu
4. Montefilia (11)
5yo M | T: David Payne | J: Jason Collett (55.5kg)
Montefilia was arguably the eye-catching run out of the Caulfield Cup having settled alongside Duais in the running and putting 1.5-lengths on her when finishing fourth. She is without a doubt one of the best staying mares Australia has at the moment and from barrier 11, she should gain a similar run in transit to what she did in the Caulfield Cup. She is proven on rain affected ground and despite this being her first crack at 3200m, she has always shown she has the potential to stay at the two miles and will be one of the runners hitting the line hard from the rear of the field. Her turn of foot is elite for a stayer and if somehow, we are on an improving track, her chances will only get better in the Melbourne Cup.
Numerian
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Holy Roman Emperor (IRE)
- Dam: Delicate Charm (IRE)
5. Numerian (7)
6yo G | T: Annabel Neasham | J: Tommy Berry (55.5kg)
Numerian is set to give trainer Annabel Neasham her first ever runner in the Melbourne Cup and despite finishing fifth in the Caulfield Cup would need to improve dramatically to win the Melbourne Cup. He managed to stick on nicely having raced up on speed last time out, but with a hotter tempo and a much harder race this time round, Numerian looks to be one of those runners who will be struggling towards the back end of the 3200m journey.
Without A Fight
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Teofilo (IRE)
- Dam: Khor Sheed (IRE)
6. Without A Fight (18)
5yo G | T: Simon & Ed Crisford | J: William Buick (55.5kg)
Without A Fight is the first of the international runners in the Melbourne Cup field and on exposed form, he is hard to knock. He won comfortably over 2800m at York earlier in the year on firmer ground, but has the runs on the board in terms of wins on rain-affected tracks to be prominent in this. This is obviously his first start on these shores and if we somehow get an improving track, his chances further increase. He has two wins and two minor placings on Heavy ground earlier in his career, but there looks to be a handful of other runners who will appreciated the expected Heavy 9/10 track come the running of the Cup. From barrier 18, look for William Buick to have this bloke up on speed with cover from the tricky draw and as long as he handles the occasion, Without A Fight is a key trifecta/first four player.
Camorra
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Zoffany (IRE)
- Dam: Mauralakana (GB)
7. Camorra (17)
5yo G | T: Ben & JD Hayes | J: Ben Melham (55kg)
Ben & JD Hayes will have their second ever Melbourne Cup starter as the reigning Curragh Cup champion Camorra makes his Australian debut. The five-year-old gelding brings elite level formlines throughout the Curragh Cup and has shown in his career that he can sustain a long-sustained run which he may have to do having drawn out in barrier 17. He will need a tonne of luck from the draw as he has never won a race when not settling in the first four and with plenty of key speed influencers drawn further out than he, we’re happy to let Camorra go around without our hard-earned on.
Deauville Legend
- Age: 3YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Sea The Stars (IRE)
- Dam: Soho Rose (FR)
8. Deauville Legend (9)
3yo G | T: James Ferguson | J: Kerrin McEvoy (55kg)
The 2022 Melbourne Cup favourite Deauville Legend drew perfectly in the barrier draw and from gate nine, Kerrin McEvoy will have a plethora of options at his disposal as to where to go with this import. The James Ferguson-trained northern hemisphere three-year-old is a proven stayer and brings a similar profile to what Cross Counter bought to the race when he won it in 2018 and has a devastating turn of foot for a stayer. The massive concern is that he has not seen a rain-affected track in his short seven-start career, but on class alone he has to be included in every exotic/tip for this year’s Melbourne Cup. The unknown on rain-affected ground has us taking him on, but with 3x Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy on board, Deauville Legend has to be seriously respected and is a deserving favourite.
Stockman
- Age: 6YOG
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Tavistock (NZ)
- Dam: Crimson (NZ)
9. Stockman (2)
6yo G | T: Joseph Pride | J: Sam Clipperton (54kg)
The Joseph Pride-trained Stockman has continually been there or thereabouts so far this campaign and managed to put close to two-lengths on Melbourne Cup rival Arapaho in the ATC St Leger Stakes at Randwick two starts back. He was massive in The Metropolitan three runs back on a similar surface to what he gains on Tuesday and with a more than handy enough record on Heavy ground cannot be discounted at a big price. A win is not completely out of the equation, but we have a few ahead of him in this year’s Cup.
Vow And Declare
- Age: 7YO
- Color: Chestnut
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Declaration Of War (USA)
- Dam: Geblitzt (NZ)
10. Vow And Declare (4)
7yo G | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Blake Shinn (54kg)
Vow And Declare is back to try and become the first horse to win two Melbourne Cups since the legendary Makybe Diva. The Danny O’Brien-trained seven-year-old has been racing in fantastic form this campaign but has continually found himself in traffic jams when it matters most. He was forced to cover plenty of ground in the Caulfield Cup and his effort reads much better than what his sixth, beaten two-lengths suggests it should. He is obviously proven at 3200m and with the in-form Blake Shinn on board who can discount him? He has only raced once on Heavy going when unplaced, but his effort three runs back behind High Emocean on a Soft 7 suggests he can handle the conditions in front of him. From barrier four, he should lob into a beautiful spot throughout and as long as he doesn’t run in to any “speed humps” Vow And Declare is in more than good enough form to bring up his first win since that glorious day in 2019. The $21 on offer with Neds is a perfect price to find out if he is good enough to win the 2022 Melbourne Cup.
Young Werther
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Tavistock (NZ)
- Dam: Romantic Time
11. Young Werther (21)
5yo G | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Damian Lane (54kg)
Barrier 21 was a real knockout blow for the chances of the Danny O’Brien-trained Young Werther in the Melbourne Cup. The five-year-old gelding has shown that his best racing is usually done when allowed to settle in the first six and with just one win to his name and an unreal amount of speed in the race, the $29 being bet on Bet365 will drift significantly for Young Werther.
Hoo Ya Mal
- Age: 3YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Colt
- Sire: Territories (IRE)
- Dam: Sensationally (IRE)
12. Hoo Ya Mal (15)
3yo C | T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | J: Craig Williams (53.5kg)
Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott have been confident a long way out from the Melbourne Cup that Hoo Ya Mal will stack up perfectly in the race that stops the nation. He brings the right form to a race like this and managed to finish within a half-length of Deauville Legend when they met in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood on July 28. We are getting a much bigger price with the top Melbourne Cup betting sites for this runner, despite the fact he also is a query on soft-heavy going. His run in the St Leger at Doncaster on September 11 was just awful and with the added query on heavy ground, we are happy to let this bloke go around without our hard-earned despite the booking of the in-form Craig Williams.
Serpentine
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Chestnut
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Galileo (IRE)
- Dam: Remember When (IRE)
13. Serpentine (23)
5yo G | T: Robert Hickmott | J: Blaike McDougall (53.5kg)
Prior to his second placed finished in the heavily reduced Archer Stakes field, the Robert Hickmott-trained Serpentine had been in shocking form since arriving in Australia. The result reads better than it should and despite likely being up on speed, his form is just too hard to ignore and we expect to see him finish towards the rear of the field.
Daqiansweet Junior
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Sweet Orange (USA)
- Dam: Paulette
14. Daqiansweet Junior (13)
5yo G | T: Phillip Stokes | J: Daniel Moor (53kg)
The form that Daqiansweet Junior brings to the Melbourne Cup this campaign just isn’t good enough to take out the Melbourne Cup. Despite finishing third in the Sydney Cup on a Heavy 10, he has only been placed on one other occasion from eight starts on rain-affected ground in much easier races than this. With a Heavy track expected, Daqiansweet Junior simply cannot win.
Grand Promenade
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Champs Elysees (GB)
- Dam: Zacchera (USA)
15. Grand Promenade (1)
6yo G | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Harry Coffey (53kg)
Despite drawing the rail, the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained Grand Promenade just isn’t quite up to it this campaign. The winner of the 2021 Bart Cummings is a shadow of his former self having risen through the staying ranks this time last year and despite having the Maher & Eustace polish, Grand Promenade cannot be entertained.
Arapaho
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Lope de Vega (IRE)
- Dam: Alzubra
16. Arapaho (19)
5yo G | T: Bjorn Baker | J: Rachel King (52.5kg)
To be fair to the Bjorn Baker-trained Arapaho, we have seen worse $101 shots going around in the Melbourne Cup. He managed to beat the dominant Moonee Valley Gold Cup winner Francesco Guardi five runs back at Newcastle in the Group 3 Premiers Cup on August 20 and has been racing in decent enough form in Sydney to suggests a first-half finish is not beyond him. He produced the best last 600m of the ATC St Leger Stakes when chasing home Stockman and was arguably doing his best work late. He will beat a few of these home on recent form.
Emissary
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Kingman (GB)
- Dam: Soviet Man (USA)
17. Emissary (3)
5yo G | T: Mike Moroney | J: Patrick Moloney (51.5kg)
The Mike Moroney and Patrick Moloney have been known to cause an upset at Flemington this year, but Emissary does not seem to be the next one of those. Despite being an impressive winner of the Geelong Cup last time out, the five-year-old gelding hardly beat any worth Melbourne Cup opponents other than Interpretation who he meets again and subsequent Archer Stakes winner Surefire. This is a massive step up in class and with only a Soft 5 win to his name on rain-affected going, it is hard to make too much of a case for Emissary.
Lunar Flare
- Age: 7YO
- Color: Brown
- Sex: Mare
- Sire: Fiorente (IRE)
- Dam: My Fair Lago
18. Lunar Flare (12)
7yo M | T: Grahame Begg | J: Michael Dee (51.5kg)
The Grahame Begg-trained Lunar Flare’s last two starts have been nothing short of impressive and gets her chance to claim the coverted Melbourne Cup. The seven-year-old mare was impressive when winning The Bart Cummings two starts back and was impressive when finishing a distant third behind Francesco Guardi in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time out. She is proven on rain-affected ground and has a strong affiliation with Flemington. Michael Dee sticks on board and will be looking to complete the rare Caulfield Cup / Melbourne Cup double as a jockey. She is another we would love to have in our numbers, but we cannot pick them all.
Smokin’ Romans
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Chestnut
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Ghibellines
- Dam: Inferno (NZ)
19. Smokin’ Romans (16)
6yo G | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Jamie Kah (51.5kg)
Arguably, Smokin Romans should have finished much closer in the Caulfield Cup than what he did, considering he is a much better on-pace runner than one who wants to take a sit off the tempo. Jamie Kah will look to be much more aggressive this time round and have this bloke testing Knight’s order and the like for the lead. If he settles in the first four, he is a big winning hope based on what he produced in the Turnbull Stakes victory two runs back, but with a few of his rivals looking to settle in a prominent position, it is hard to see where even the great Jamie Kah can fit him in close to the lead.
Tralee Rose
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Mare
- Sire: Tavistock (NZ)
- Dam: Star Of Tralee (NZ)
20. Tralee Rose (22)
6yo M | T: Symon Wilde | J: Dean Yendall (51.5kg)
12 months ago, the Symon Wilde-trained Tralee Rose started a shorter price in the Melbourne Cup than what Verry Elleegant did when winning. However, the six-year-old mares form has been putrid this time in and despite being held up for a run in the Caulfield Cup when finishing 13 of 18, she deserves to be the rank outsider in the 2022 Melbourne Cup.
Point Nepean
- Age: 4YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Horse
- Sire: Camelot (GB)
- Dam: Sea Goddess (IRE)
21. Point Nepean (20)
4yo H | T: Robert Hickmott | J: Wayne Lordan (51kg)
The second of the Robert Hickmott runners Point Nepean is just nowhere near the form that saw him claim The Andrew Ramsden during the autumn to book a spot in the Cup. He was beaten by five-lengths when first-up over 2500m and only beat one runner home in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) last time out. Point Nepean will be lucky to beat a runner home on exposed form.
High Emocean
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Mare
- Sire: Ocean Park (NZ)
- Dam: High Joy (IRE)
22. High Emocean (8)
6yo M | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Teo Nugent (50kg)
Having claimed the Group 3 Bendigo Cup on a Heavy 10 on October 26, there is little doubting the fitness of High Emocean heading into the Cup. The six-year-old mare was oinly beaten 1.4-legnths in The Bart Cummings the start prior and before that managed to get the better of Vow And Declare over 2500m here at Flemington. He only just got the job done in the Bendigo Cup, but winning form is good form and at $61 looks to be one who is over the odds. It is hard to see him winning, but a top 10 finish would not surprise.
Interpretation
- Age: 4YO
- Color: Brown
- Sex: Horse
- Sire: Galileo (IRE)
- Dam: Dalydiyna (GB)
23. Interpretation (6)
4yo H | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Craig Newitt (50kg)
Interpretation has been nothing short of disappointing this campaign, having been well supported in all four starts, only to produce a third-place finish in The Bart Cummings as her best result. The Maher & Eustace runner has not won a race in his career other than when he has been the leader in the race and from barrier six looks set to be up on speed. However, with Knights Order expected to zoom across the front of the field, it is unlikely Interpretation leads and on that fact alone, he cannot win.
Realm Of Flowers
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Brown
- Sex: Mare
- Sire: So You Think (NZ)
- Dam: Astral Flower (IRE)
24. Realm Of Flowers (5)
6yo M | T: Anthony & Sam Freedman | J: Damien Thornton (50kg)
We save the best until last. Our on top selection in the 2022 Melbourne Cup is the Anthony & Sam Freedman-trained Realm Of Flowers. This six-year-old mare is coming off a devastating third in The Metropolitan where she beat home subsequent Caulfield Cup winner Durston with ease off a horrid run. She was forced to cover more ground than other runner in the race, a majority of the time without cover. She then had the audacity to keep finding throughout the home straight to go down by a pimple in a tight three way go. With a better run, she wins. She draws barrier five on Tuesday and with just 50kgs on her back, an impressive wet track history and a minor placing to her name over 3200m, we’re happy to side with Realm Of Flowers here. If Damien Thornton can have her settled just worse than midfield, we know she will handle the occasion and conditions and with a strong turn of foot, we expect Realm Of Flowers to be the one to etch her name into equine immortality.
2022 Melbourne Cup betting tips
-
24
REALM OF FLOWERS
-
10
VOW AND DECLARE
-
8
DEAUVILLE LEGEND
-
1
GOLD TRIP
| $100 betting strategy | |
|---|---|
| $50 win | Realm Of Flowers (#10) @ $14.00 with Bet365 |
| $50 win | Vow And Declare (#10) @ $18.00 with Bet365 |