2022 Caulfield Cup preview & betting strategy | October 15
| What | 2022 Caulfield Cup |
| Where | Caulfield Racecourse – 22 Station St, Caulfield East VIC 3145 |
| When | Saturday, October 15, 2022 | 5:15pm AEDT | Race 9 |
| Prizemoney | $5,000,000 |
| Distance | 2400m |
| Race Conditions | Handicap |
| 2021 Winner | Incentivise (20) | Jockey: Brett Prebble (55.5kg) | Trainer: Peter Moody |
The 2022 Caulfield Cup is the first of the big three races in the Melbourne Spring Carnival and a capacity field of 18 stayers have accepted to battled it out for the $5 million on offer on Saturday.
Online bookmakers have last start Turnbull Stakes winner Smokin’ Romans as a $4.40 favourite to claim the Caulfield Cup, whilst Benaud ($9.50) and Gold Trip ($9.50) are the only other two runners at a single figure quote for Saturday’s Group 1. Duais, Knight’s Order, Nonconformist, Numerian and Alegron have all had backing since the barrier draw was completed on Wednesday night, meaning this year’s Caulfield Cup is an open one.
Knight’s Order from the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott yard will look to take up the running, with Smokin’ Romans and Numerian expected to be close to the speed upon settling. We expect Duais, Nonconformist and Gold Trip to all settle midfield and make their moves approaching the home turn.
Keep reading for our full runner-by-runner preview of the 2022 Caulfield Cup and $100 betting strategy.
Gold Trip
1. Gold Trip (12)
5yo H | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Mark Zahra (57.5kg)
Carrying the top weight of 57.5kg in Saturday’s Caulfield Cup is the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained Gold Trip. He is a tough runner to get a proper read on considering he has always been highly touted since arriving on these shores from Europe, but in three starts in Australia has yet to set the world on fire. Two starts back in the Naturalism Stakes he was given the run of the race in similar conditions he faces on Saturday but peaked on his run when chasing home Smokin’ Romans. He then went to Flemington and endured a wide run throughout the Turnbull Stakes and the fact he was beaten by 1.5-lengths off the tough run suggests he must be respected in Saturday’s Group 1. He draws barrier 12, so Mark Zahra will need to be at his best to have the five-year-old settled with cover in the back half of the field. He will stay all day and in conditions that should suit him perfectly, Gold Trip is certainly a trifecta/first four hope.
Duais
2. Duais (9)
5yo M | T: Edward Cummings | J: Joshua Parr (55.5kg)
It is simple; if the Edward Cummings-trained Duais is anywhere near her best, she simply wins the Caulfield Cup. The Australian Cup and Tancred Stakes winner from the autumn has long been aimed towards the Melbourne staying features and is arguably the best staying mare in the country. However, in three runs this campaign, she has hardly set the world on fire. She was always going to find the Memsie Stakes (1400m) and George Main Stakes (1600m) too sharp for her liking, but her midfield effort in the Turnbull left many scratching their head. The other query is in four runs on Heavy going, she is yet to finish in the top three. However, no other stayer has gotten near her rating that she produced in the Tancred earlier in the year on a Soft 6 and if we are racing on an improving track, then Duais simply looks the one to be with. From barrier nine, she will be settled in the second half of the field under Joshua Parr and considering it will be a day for those drawn to the middle-outside, it sets up perfectly for Duais to make her run out wide and ultimately prove too hard to hold out.
Knights Order
3. Knights Order (18)
7yo G | T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | J: Tim Clark (55.5kg)
Will anyone be able to chase down the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained Knights Order? The Sydney Cup winner from the autumn gets out to a distance that will suit him perfectly in conditions that he will simply relish. The seven-year-old gelding looks to be the sole speed influence in the race and if he gains an uncontested lead throughout, jockey Tim Clark will have him in the right ground throughout the race. Barrier 18 is offset by his early speed out of the gates and considering he has a career record of 5: 2-1-1 on Heavy ground, he will be in this for a long way. His win in the Sydney Cup came on Heavy going when leading throughout and with two wins from four starts at 2400m and based on his recent form, we expect Knights Order to look like the winner at one point or another.
Montefilia
4. Montefilia (16)
5yo M | T: David Payne | J: Jason Collett (55.5kg)
The David Payne-trained Montefilia is back for another crack at Caulfield Cup glory but is in desperate need of a form reversal if she is to be prevalent in Saturday’s feature. The five-year-old mare was sent around as a $2.20 favourite in the Hill Stakes at Randwick on October 1 but was only plodding late when finishing third beaten just over five-lengths to Cascadian and Numerian. She meets the latter once again on Saturday and considering her recent form and the fact this is much harder than her last start effort, we are happy to let Montefilia going around.
Numerian
5. Numerian (10)
6yo G | T: Annabel Neasham | J: Tommy Berry (55.5kg)
The Annabel Neasham-trained Numerian has been in solid enough form this campaign to suggest he is a genuine chance in Saturday’s Group 1. First-up he chased home Knight’s Order over 1600m in the Chelmsford Stakes when producing the race best last 600m and then went to the Hill Stakes where he was simply no match for Cascadian after leading the field up. He will be close to the speed throughout on the weekend and with Tommy Berry sticking on board, we know he will be given a peach of a steer throughout. He has a win and four minor placings from seven starts on Heavy ground and despite this being just his second start going the “Melbourne way”, Numerian simply cannot be discounted. We o not have him in our top four, but we can’t have them all at the end of the day.
Nonconformist
6. Nonconformist (15)
6yo G | T: Grahame Begg | J: Jordan Childs (54.5kg)
Grahame Begg’s Nonconformist has been low flying this campaign according to his trainer and was far from disgrace in last weeks Might And Power and looked like he was doing his best work late. He finished second in this race last year behind Incentivise and has always had a strong affiliation with Caulfield. The slight query is how he goes on Heavy ground having not yet started on a track any worse than a Soft 7. From barrier 15, Jordan Childs will need to be at his best to have Nonconformist in a prominent position throughout and if he does not get trapped wide, Nonconformist will stay all day if we get an improving track. Considering he has not finished any better than sixth and with concerns around the conditions, we are happy to let Nonconformist to go around without our hard earned.
Vow And Declare
7. Vow And Declare (17)
7yo G | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Blake Shinn (54kg)
The 2019 Melbourne Cup champion Vow And Declare has been nothing short of impressive this campaign and equally unlucky. The Danny O’Brien-trained galloper was held-up for a run two starts back when finishing third behind High Emocean and it was a similar story last start in The Bart Cummings when beaten just over a length. He was looking for clear air until the final 250m of the event, but once out, he absolutely flew home and should have finished even closer than what he did. He has not win since that first Tuesday in November back in 2019, but the way he has been racing this campaign suggests he is back near his best. From barrier 17, it would be no surprise to see Blake Shinn have the big boy settled in a forward position. If he does do that and can avoid traffic approaching the home turn, Vow And Declare has the staying credentials and form behind him to suggest he can be a knockout hope in the 2022 Caulfield Cup.
No Compromise
8. No Compromise (13)
6yo G | T: Chris Waller | J: Craig Newitt (53.5kg)
The Chris Waller-trained No Compromise was a smart winner of The Metropolitan last time out when aided by a gun ride by Tommy Berry. He had plenty of things go his way that day when placegetters Le Don De Vie and Realm Of Flowers had many an excuse throughout the event. However, the Chris Waller-trained runner did produce the best last 600m of the race and considering he is a genuine mudlark he must be respected heading into Saturday. He has a record of 13: 3-3-4 on Heavy ground which is easily the best record in the race. Barrier 13 is a touch tricky and from the draw he will be another looking for cover midfield. He needs to make up a couple lengths on the likes of Alegron, Benaud and Knights Order from the Kingston Town Stakes two runs back, but if he replicates his turn of foot that he showed in The Metrop, then No Compromise cannot be ruled out at a nice price.
Alegron
9. Alegron (14)
4yo G | T: James Cummings | J: Ethan Brown (53kg)
The James Cummings-trained Alegron is four weeks between runs having last been seen taking out the Group 3 Kingston Town Stakes. He managed to get the better of Benaud and Knights Order who he meets again on Saturday and based on his win in the VRC St Leger earlier in the year, he is going to eat up every bit of the 2400m on Saturday. However, based on his record he looks to be every bit of a dry tracker and with just one win and a minor placing from four starts on wet ground, he doesn’t necessarily have the runs on the board like his rivals. You have to respect the stable based on current form and a win certainly wouldn’t shock. However in the testing conditions in arguably his hardest test to date, the $11 with Ladbrokes looks to be a touch too short for our liking.
Benaud
10. Benaud (20)
4yo G | T: John O’Shea | J: Regan Bayliss (53kg)
The John O’Shea-trained Benaud is another one who is a touch too short for our liking, with Neds marking him a $9 chance in the Caulfield Cup. He wasn’t exactly hitting the line with great intent in the Might And Power last weekend, with Mr Brightside arguably savaging the line better than what he was. He has just one win from 10 starts on rain-affected ground and considering he has not won in over a year now, we’d be wanting a bigger price to launch into for this Reliable Man gelding. He has drawn barrier 20, so will be giving his rivals a big start and with a few too many queries about how he handles the going and where he settles from the draw, Benaud is another one we can let go.
Great House
11. Great House (11)
6yo G | T: Chris Waller | J: Brett Prebble (53kg)
The Chris Waller-trained Great House was doing his best work late in the Turnbull Stakes, but considering he is a $21 chance with Bet365 he is hard to have. He has not tasted success since The Hotham on VRC Derby Day last year and on recent form he looks like he will need to go to a whole new level to even finish in the first eight in the Caulfield Cup. One thing on his side is his wet track record of 13: 3-2-4, but with a few of his rivals in much better form and are proven at Group 1 level, Great House is hard to have.
Inspirational Girl
12. Inspirational Girl (1)
7yo M | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Jye McNeil (53kg)
Safe to say when the barrier draw was announced on Wednesday night connections of Inspirational Girl let out a collective groan when drawing barrier one. She was last seen finishing a respectable seventh in the Turnbull when held up for a run for the majority of the home straight and was arguably doing her best work late. This will be her first start at the 2400m and considering her one start on Heavy going in the Doncaster Mile during the autumn saw her finish 14th – beaten 6.5-lengths – it is hard to make too much of a case for Inspirational Girl.
Maximal
13. Maximal (19)
4yo H | T: John O’Shea| J: Ben Melham (53kg)
Despite being a $21 chance with Palmerbet, the John O’Shea-trained Maximal is a genuine dry-tracker and is hard to make a case for him on a Heavy track on Saturday. The four-year-old son of Galileo enjoyed the soft run in transit when finishing second in the Turnbull behind Smokin’ Romans to suggest if the Caulfield Cup was on a Good 4, he would be a big chance. However, the conditions will not be to his liking on the weekend and we expect his price to blow out dramatically closer to the jump.
Sound
14. Sound (4)
9yo H | T: Mike Moroney | J: Blaike McDougall (53kg)
You would love to own Sound, having earnt $1.8 million in his 50 start career. However he is $101 for a reason, having been beaten the best part of eight-lengths in the JRA Cup which on paper is a much easier race.
Chapada
15. Chapada (11)
7yo G | T: Mike Moroney | J: Daniel Stackhouse (52kg)
Much like Sound, Chapada is a $51 chance with Unibet for a reason having not won in over two years and outside of a third in the Turnbull Stakes 12-months ago has simply not looked like the Chapada of old.
Crystal Pegasus
16. Crystal Pegasus (2)
5yo G | T: Chris Waller | J: Damien Thornton (52kg)
Crystal Pegasus gained a start in the Caulfield Cup by winning the Mornington Cup earlier in the year, but since then has hardly looked like a winning prospect. In three starts this campaign, he has not finished any better than ninth and has been beaten on all three occasions by big margins. He can handle soft going, but on exposed form, Heavy ground is just simply not his go.
Smokin’ Romans
17. Smokin’ Romans (5)
6yo G | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Jamie Kah (51.5kg)
The Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained Smokin’ Romans roared into Caulfield Cup favouritism with a dazzling win in the Turnbull Stakes. He was aided by the on-pace dominated affair with just 55.5kg on his back and managed to convincingly beat a field where he meets a majority of his rivals in this once again. He draws perfectly on Saturday from barrier five and we expect he will be on the girth of Knights Order throughout the event. He drops 4kg from his Turnbull success and despite losing Ethan Brown as his jockey, he gains the services of the superstar which is Jamie Kah. The six-year-old gelding is just as good on rain-affected ground as he is on top of the ground and based on his last two starts he is a deserving favourite in the Caulfield Cup. However, at $4.40 compared to some of the prices available for runners who will only improve as they get out to 2400m, Smokin’ Romans will need to go to a whole new level once again. We have him in our top four, but we would be wanting a better price before diving into him.
Tralee Rose
18. Tralee Rose (8)
6yo M | T: Symon Wilde | J: Dean Yendall (51.5kg)
Symon Wilde’s Tralee Rose has always been a stayer with plenty of potential but has been sent throughout the ringer recently with a couple of injury scares. She has not been at the races since August 27 and despite having plenty of upside, we’re happy to let her go around at a big price.
2022 Caulfield Cup Emergencies
Durston
19. Durston (1E) (6)
6yo G | T: Chris Waller | J: Michael Dee (51.5kg)
If there is a scratching, the Chris Waller-trained Durston is a genuine chance down on the light weight. He strung together two smart wins in the Wyong Cup and then in the Newcastle Gold Cup, before a massive run in The Metrop which saw him beaten 1.25-lengths after needing to cover ground throughout. With a nicer run in transit and considering he has a win to his name at 2900m, we expect he will handle what is in front of him with great aplomb if he can gain a start.
Makram
20. Makram (2E) (7)
5yo G | T: Ben & JD Hayes | J: TBC (50kg)
Makram will need a minor miracle to gain a start in the Caulfield Cup and will need to produce a career peak to be competitive in the race. He finished second behind the impressive Saracen Knight in the Herbert Power Stakes last weekend, but prior to that was a big flop in the JRA Cup. $34 is the right price if he gains a start based one the fact he will be on the minimum weight, but it is hard to see how he gains a start unless we are on a bottomless Heavy 10.
2022 Caulfield Cup betting tips
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2
DUAIS
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3
KNIGHTS ORDER
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7
VOW AND DECLARE
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17
SMOKIN’ ROMANS
| $100 betting strategy | |
|---|---|
| $70 win | Duais (#2) @ $13 with Bet365 | $30 win | Knights Order (#) @ $14 with Bet365 |