Flemington Derby Day preview, betting tips & quaddie | 30/10/2021

What VRC Derby Day 2021
Where Flemington Racecourse – 448 Epsom Rd, Flemington VIC 3031
When Saturday, October 30, 2021
First Race 12:20pm AEDT
Feature Race Group 1 Victoria Derby – Race 6

A bumper nine-part card is scheduled on Saturday afternoon for VRC Derby Day to help kick start the Melbourne Cup Carnival. HorseBetting’s Victorian horse racing analyst presents his race-by-race preview, best bets and free quaddie numbers for one of the best days on the Australian racing calendar. The track is rated a Good 4, the rail returns to the true position, and the meeting is scheduled to start at 12:20pm AEDT.

Race 1: Carbine Club Stakes (1600m)

Derby Day kicks off with the traditional Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes over the Flemington mile, and we expect Fangirl to bring her impressive Sydney form and prove too good. The three-year-old Sebring filly has gone from smashing her rivals in a Goulburn maiden two starts back, to taking out the Listed Reginald Allen Quality last time out, to being favourite for the Carbine Club. It is a fair rise to fame for the Chris Waller-trained runner, and we do not expect that impressive run to stop here. James McDonald is in town and will retain the ride, and if Fangirl is anywhere near the level of her last-start win, she may just blow her rivals away and get favourite punters off to the best start possible. She was looking for a run early on in the home straight at Randwick, but when it came, she exploded through a gap and made up some 3.5 lengths in no time to go on and win in pretty soft fashion. It may be the opening race of the Melbourne Cup Carnival, but she is a clear best bet for us on Derby Day.

Selections: 11-3-8-1

Best BetRace 1 – Fangirl (#11) $2.60 with Sportsbet

Race 2: Hotham Handicap (2800m)

Win and you are in to the 2021 Melbourne Cup – that is what is on offer for the winner of the Hotham on Saturday. Following a fifth-place finish in the Caulfield Cup, Great House looks to be one of the better bets on Derby Day. Getting beaten 5.5 lengths by Incentivise is not necessarily the worst form, but more importantly, he was 0.3 lengths off Persan in third place in the Caulfield Cup. The booking of James McDonald is a massive bonus, and with the likes of Knights Order and Le Don De Vie set to provide a genuine tempo, the race should be set up perfectly for a backmarker like Great House to finish over the top and book a spot in Tuesday’s great race.

Selections: 4-2-7-1

Next BestRace 2 – Great House (#4) $2.60 with Sportsbet

Race 3: Wakeful Stakes (2000m)

The run by Kapalua Sunset in the Group 3 Ethereal Stakes was too bad to be true, striking trouble every time Brett Prebble tried to get her into clear air. Without a doubt we would have liked her to run even when winning was out of the equation, but we are happy to forgive a bad day and take the $10 on offer. Her seven-length maiden win at Kyneton two starts back saw her rocket into VRC Oaks calculations, and with a win on Saturday in the Wakeful Stakes, she should be well and truly back in the Oaks conversation. Despite Thousand Guineas winner Yearning and the impressive Daisies, El Patroness and Barb Raider all being involved, the double-figure quote for Kapalua Sunset is too good to pass up.

Selections: 10-1-2-3

Best ValueRace 3 – Kapalua Sunset (#10) $10 with Sportsbet

Race 4: Linlithgow Stakes (1200m)

It may not be the deepest edition of the Linlithgow Stakes this year, but there is still plenty of quality set to contest the famous ‘Flemington Six’. He may be an enigma, but Kemantari looks to have a strong case on Saturday on his way to a run in some of the Group 1s in WA. He was a hard watch in Group 3 Sydney Stakes last time out when only seeing clear air in the final 50m to go down by 1.5 lengths to the likes of Big Parade and Standout. He managed to take out the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes at this track and distance two starts back when defeating Kemalpasa, who is set to go around as a $3.70 second-elect on Saturday, whilst $14s are available for Kementari. Look for Jye McNeil to have him settled in the second half of the field, where he can have the last look at them over the final 50m and ultimately prove too hard to hold out.

Selections: 1-2-7-4

Race 5: Empire Rose Stakes (1600m)

The first Group 1 of Derby Day is the Empire Rose Stakes for the fillies and mares over 1600m, and as always, it shapes to be a cracking edition of the time-honoured race. Stradbroke Handicap winner Tofane leads the market as a $3.70 chance, whilst Mystic Journey will be looking to add a second Group 1 to her CV and has seen early support to make her a $5.50 second-elect. Colette ($7), Flying Mascot ($9.50) and Still A Star ($11) have all been given a chance at an each-way quote.

See our in-depth preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2021 Empire Rose Stakes here

Race 6: Victoria Derby (2500m)

The Group 1 Victoria Derby is the feature event on Saturday’s card at Flemington, with a capacity field of 16 three-year-olds set to duke it out over 2500m. Gunstock and Forgot You share top billing in the market with online bookies, with odds of $4.20 available for the pair to claim Group 1 glory. Hitotsu ($6.50), Tutukaka ($9) and Alegron ($10) have all been given a chance by the market as well.

See our extensive runner-by-runner preview and betting tips for the 2021 VRC Derby here

Race 7: Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m)

The Coolmore Stud Stakes holds a key to all future breeding careers of these three-year-olds set to compete over 1200m, and this year’s edition looks to be as wide open as ever. Extreme Warrior is a popular $4.20 favourite following his win in the Blue Sapphire Stakes, whilst proven Sydney sprinter In The Congo is a $4.40 second-elect following his win in the Golden Rose Stakes. Paulele ($7.50), Artorius ($8.50), Kallos ($11) and Home Affairs ($11) have all seen early market support, and a win is certainly within their grasp in a race likes this.

See our in-depth preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2021 Coolmore Stud Stakes here

Race 8: Cantala Stakes (1600m)

The Cantala Stakes is always one of the more hotly contested Group 1 events throughout the Melbourne Spring Carnival, and this year’s edition looks to be no different. The progressive Mr Brightside is a $4.20 market-elect for this year’s race and will be looking to make it seven wins in a row this campaign, whilst the Archie Alexander-trained Chaillot is an $8 second-favourite having bypassed the Empire Rose Stakes to compete in this. Aramayo ($9), Superstorm ($10) and the winner of last week’s The Invitation, Icebath ($11), are all in with a chance.

See our in-depth preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2021 Cantala Stakes here

Race 9: Begonia Belle Stakes (1100m)

Derby Day concludes with a massive field of 18 set to compete down the Flemington 1100m, and we are giving the Chris Waller-trained September Run one last chance. With three wins and a second-placing to Nature Strip from five goes down the Flemington straight, she clearly loves it, and she is two wins from two starts at the track and distance. Her run in the Group 2 Shillaci Stakes was too bad to be true, and we expect that she will bounce back with a win here. She will need to lug 59kg, but with Luke Nolen hopping on board for the first time, we expect to see September Run charging home and sending us home winners on Derby Day at a nice price.

Selections: 1-6-7-5

Saturday quaddie tips for Derby Day 2021

Flemington quadrella selections
Leg 1: 1-4-6
Leg 2: 4-5-6-7-9
Leg 3: 5-6-11-14
Leg 4: 1-5-6-7-11
Investment: $300 for 100%

All horse racing tips

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