The Everest race preview & betting strategy | October 15, 2022
| What | 2022 Everest |
| Where | Randwick Racecourse – Alison Rd, Randwick NSW 2031 |
| When | Saturday, October 15, 2022 | 4:15pm AEDT | Race 7 |
| Prizemoney | $15,000,000 |
| Distance | 1200m |
| Race Conditions | Weight For Age |
| 2021 Winner | Nature Strip (10) | Jockey: James McDonald (58.5kg) | Trainer: Chris Waller |
The richest turf race in the world, The Everest, will be run and won on Saturday, with the winner taking home $6.2 million. The 2022 Everest field on paper looks to be one of the best ever assembled for the $15 million race. Of the 12 runners in this year’s field, six are Group 1 winners, while the other six are Group 2 winners.
Online bookmakers have opened up the Everest market with the winner of last year’s Everest, Nature Strip, as the odds-on favourite at $1.90. Lost And Running is the only other horse in single figures at $7, while Jacquinot ($11), Masked Crusader ($12) and Eduardo ($12) sit on the next lines of betting.
The speed map for this year’s Everest could be quite messy as we have Eduardo, Nature Strip, Overpass, Joyful Fortune and Giga Kick who like to lead in their races; however, we think that Eduardo and Nature Strip will pair off as the leaders. Meaning that Joyful Fortune and Giga Kick should receive great runs behind the leaders from handy barriers, while the likes of Jacquinot, Ingratiating, Private Eye and Masked Crusader will get towards the rear of the field and be swooping down the outside late in the piece.
Keep reading for our full runner-by-runner preview of the 2022 Everest and $100 betting strategy.
Nature Strip
1. Nature Strip (12)
8yo G | T: Chris Waller | J: James McDonald (58.5kg)
Last year’s winner and our race favourite, Nature Strip, will once again be very hard to beat in the 2022 Everest. Bookmakers have opened him up as the shortest favourite we have ever seen for an Everest, at $1.90, and given his recent form, there is no reason to suggest that he shouldn’t be as short as he is. This eight-year-old gelding has done it all this year, taking out the T.J Smith Stakes in April, before going over to Ascot in the UK and destroying the world’s best in the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes. This son of Nicconi seems to be ageing like a fine wine and getting better with age, as he showed in his first race as an eight-year-old in The Shorts at Randwick on September 17 when he toyed with his rivals first-up over 1100m. If any horse in this field wants to take out this year’s Everest, they would have to go to a new career peak and run out of their skin to beat the number one sprinter in the world.
Eduardo
2. Eduardo (9)
9yo G | T: Joseph Pride | J: Nash Rawiller (58.5kg)
One of the dangers to the race favourite would have to be the Joseph Pride-trained Eduardo, who actually beat Nature Strip in the 2021 edition of The Shorts. However, at every meeting since that win, Eduardo has always finished behind this Nature Strip, making it hard to make a case as to why this nine-year-old gelding could win the Everest at his third attempt in as many years. If Eduardo gets a sole-lead of the race he could be very hard to get past so with him currently $3.20 to run a place, it represents great value for an on-pace runner who is proven at this level.
Lost And Running
3. Lost And Running (7)
6yo G | T: John O’Shea | J: Hugh Bowman (58.5kg)
The second favourite with bookmakers is the John O’Shea-trained Lost And Running at $7, who will be tackling the richest horse race on turf for the second time in as many years, after finishing fourth in the race last year. This six-year-old gelding is coming off a very good win in the Group 2 Premiere over 1200m at Randwick on October 1, beating Mazu and Masked Crusader. However, this son of Per Incanto has never won a race when third-up in a preparation before, he has a record of 2:0-1-0. After winning the Premiere last start, it is easy to see why the market likes this guy and why he is the second favourite.
Masked Crusader
4. Masked Crusader (10)
6yo G | T: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes | J: William Pike (58.5kg)
After running second by a short half-head in last year’s edition of the Everest behind Nature Strip, somehow Masked Crusader has still opened up as a $13 outsider for the Hawkes team. This six-year-old gelding normally finds that he is his own worst enemy with his “get back and run on” racing style as a sprinter, but if there is enough pace on in this year’s Everest, don’t be surprised if he goes close again. Drawing barrier 10 shouldn’t be a worry, nor should a Soft or Heavy track, so if he doesn’t get too far back in the running, this son of Toronado could be worth a play at $13 with online bookmakers.
Mazu
5. Mazu (11)
4yo G | T: Peter & Paul Snowden | J: Sam Clipperton (58.5kg)
The Peter & Paul Snowden-trained Mazu will be looking to record his eighth win at start 14, as he takes on the Everest for the first time. This four-year-old gelding enjoyed a very good three-year-old season, highlighted by his win in the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 over 1200m on May 14. This son of Maurice was beaten by many of his rivals in The Shorts when he was first-up this preparation, while he was beaten by Lost And Running in the Premiere where he actually beat home Masked Crusader in the Group 2 a fortnight ago. We cannot knock the form and the ability of this guy, but it may just be a year too early for Mazu in the 2022 Everest.
Private Eye
6. Private Eye (3)
5yo G | T: Joseph Pride | J: Brenton Avdulla (58.5kg)
The Joseph Pride-trained Private Eye was one of the last horses to gain a slot for the 2022 Everest, after he was heavily backed first-up at Flemington over 1200m on October 1 where he smashed his rivals down the straight. Even though this six-year-old gelding has won a Group 1, it was the Epsom over 1600m with 51kg on his back and he could be looking for 1400m second-up. Private Eye will go back from his draw and he will be flying home late, but we think he will find a few of these two sharp.
Overpass
7. Overpass (6)
4yo H | T: Bjorn Baker | J: Rachel King (58.5kg)
One of the two Bjorn Baker-trained runners will be Overpass, who will go around as a $34 outsider in this year’s edition of the $15 million Everest. After trialling up a treat before this campaign, this four-year-old son of Vancouver put his name up in lights, however, after his first two runs this preparation he would need to improve dramatically to finish top four here.
Ingratiating
8. Ingratiating (4)
4yo H | T: James Cummings | J: Glyn Schofield (58.5kg)
The James Cummings-trained Ingratiating was the last selected runner for the Everest in the Godolphin slot, after running second to his stablemate Paulele at Caulfield over 1100m last Saturday. James Cummings and his team have chosen to back this son of Frosted up after running seven days prior. Ingratiating was beaten by Paulele last start and Kementari is an emergency in this year’s Everest, and we believe that the two former horses would have been a better chance this year.
Joyful Fortune
9. Joyful Fortune (1)
6yo G | T: Mark Newnham| J: Tom Sherry (58.5kg)
The Mark Newnham-trained Joyful Fortune will tackle his strongest race by a fair distance on Saturday when he takes his place in the Everest. Although his win at Flemington when he was first-up in Australia was impressive, this all could be a bit too soon for this lightly raced six-year-old.
Shades Of Rose
10. Shades Of Rose (8)
4yo M | T: Bjorn Baker | J: Kerrin McEvoy (56.5kg)
The second of the Bjorn Baker-trained horses in this race, Shades Of Rose, is one of the more interesting runners in this year’s Everest. This four-year-old mare has won seven from her first nine starts, while at her most recent start she won her first Group race taking out the Group 2 Sheraco Stakes for fillies and mares on September 10 over 1200m. You can’t knock the form of this obviously talented mare, as she has jumped every hurdle that the Baker team have thrown at her, but this hurdle could be just a little too steep on this occasion.
Jacquinot
11. Jacquinot (2)
3yo C | T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | J: Damian Lane (53kg)
The first of the two three-year-olds in this year’s Everest, Jacquinot, will be looking to emulate Yes Yes Yes who took out the 2019 Everest after running in the Group 1 Golden Rose Stakes the start prior. The Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr team have chosen to have a crack at the Everest and step this colt back in distance from 1400m to 1200m, which can be a worry for some punters in big races. However, the trainers obviously know their horse better than we do, so there must be something they know that we don’t. Keep him safe and throw him into any exotic plays for the race.
Giga Kick
12. Giga Kick (4)
3yo C | T: Craig Williams | J: Clayton Douglas (53kg)
The unbeaten Clayton Douglas-trained Giga Kick will be the second of the three-year-olds who will take on the Everest, after winning the Group 2 Danehill Stakes at Flemington over 1100m on October 1. This gelding has been very good at all of his four career starts to date, with his most recent win being the smallest margin of his four wins. This son of Scissor Kick has been very impressive so far but he has never seen a field that has this quality attached to it, so we think he may struggle in the 2022 Everest.
2022 Everest emergencies
Forbidden Love
13. Forbidden Love (TBC)
5yo M | T: Michael Freedman | J: TBC (56.5kg)
Forbidden Love for Michael Freedman is the first emergency, who would have to be the most likely of the four emergencies to gain a start, if one horse was scratched due to wet weather or a mishap during the lead up to the race. If this five-year-old mare gets into the race on a Heavy track, she is a minor chance at odds.
Apache Chase
14. Apache Chase (TBC)
5yo G | T: Desleigh Forster | J: TBC (58.5kg)
As the second emergency, the Desleigh Forster-trained Apache Chase will be very unlikely to gain a start, similarly to his chances of taking out the 2022 Everest.
Kementari
15. Kementari (TBC)
8yo G | T: James Cummings | J: TBC (58.5kg)
The James Cummings-trained Kementari will be the third emergency and the second Godolphin horse in the Everest field for 2022. This eight-year-old gelding is $67 with online bookmakers and if he somehow gets a start in the $15 million race, he is worth a play in exotics.
In The Congo
16. In The Congo (TBC)
4yo H | T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | J: TBC (58.5kg)
The four-year-old Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained In The Congo will be the last emergency for the 2022 Everest, who would be very lucky to get a run. If this son of Snitzel does get a run, he may find this field too hot at this stage of his career.
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1
NATURE STRIP
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4
MASKED CRUSADER
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2
EDUARDO
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3
LOST AND RUNNING
2022 Everest betting tips
| $100 betting strategy | |
|---|---|
| $70 win | Nature Strip (#1) @ $2 with Bet365 | $15 each way | Masked Crusdaer (#4) @ $12 / $3.30 with Bet365 |