Makybe Diva Stakes betting tips, form and odds, September 16
THE Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup betting picture will take shape after the races are completed at Flemington this Saturday.
The Makybe Diva Stakes features some of the best weight-for-age thoroughbreds in Australia with Hartnell going up against the likes of Black Heart Bart, Le Romain and Kiwi contingent Jon Snow and Humidor.
The Japan Racing Trophy features 2016 Melbourne Cup winner Almandin which is coming off a great performance at The Valley and it will be sure to attract plenty of interest in futures markets after the race.
There is great racing across the board at Flemington this Saturday and punters can get a bonus bet (up to $50) if your runner finishes second or third in the first five races with CrownBet.com.au.
Race 1 – Cap D’Antibes Stakes (1100m)
Jorda is a talented type for James Cummings which scored a win in the Gimcrack Stakes on debut before resuming and running third behind Pariah last start. The filly by Exceed And Excel finished off well on that occasion and it should be able to cope with running down the Flemington straight. Bookmakers are keeping it safe at $2.75, but it is drifting in the market.
The money has come Roomooz which defeated a handy field at Moonee Valley last start. The Tony McEvoy-trained filly returned to the form that saw it winning on debut and it didn’t lose many admirers when running in the Blue Diamond series behind Catchy. It looks to have strengthened up nicely since then and it has been backed in from $4.60 to $4.
Race 1 tip: Roomooz to win ($4) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 2 – Pin & Win 3YO Plate (1400m)
Muraahib has been well-supported at $5.50 after showing good form in some tough races. The Lindsay Park-trained colt was a stunning 5.5-length winner at Sale before running sixth in the Blue Diamond. It has since placed twice at stakes level and it didn’t have much luck last start behind Merchant Navy in the McNeil. It represents good betting value in this.
It’s tough to look past the form of Royal Symphony which has won all three starts in impressive fashion. The McEvoy-trained three-year-old has won all three races by more than three lengths and it put over four lengths on the talented Anchor Bid last start. We’re concerned about the betting drift from $2 to $2.15, but we’ll take the better odds on offer.
Race 2 tip: Royal Symphony to win ($2.15) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 3 – The Sofitel Handicap (1400m)
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Mr Sneaky is a professional winner of five from 12 starts and it couldn’t have been more impressive when winning at Caulfield last start. The Anthony Freedman-trained son of High Chaparral has won and placed on this track and despite rising in grade it drops right down in weight to 54kg which makes the current $3.40 favourite tough to beat.
Darren Weir lines up Chocolate Holic which looked good in Perth before switching stables. Its best run came last start when running second to Grande Rosso at Caulfield and a replication of that run takes it close here. It appreciated the firmer racing surface like it received in Perth, so keep an eye on conditions and back this runner if the track is good.
Race 3 tip: Chocolate Holic to place ($1.80) at Topbetta.com.au
Race 4 – Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m)
Scales of Justice has been steadily backed in from $7.50 to $6 and punters should respect that betting move. The Lindsey Smith-trained Perth runner won the Railway Stakes last year and its form since has been solid. It’s never easy to win first start in Melbourne and it has never won over this distance, but follow the market moves closely.
Redkirk Warrior is being touted as a possible Everest contender and a good showing here could confirm that. The Lindsay Park-trained import struggled in the heavy tracks last preparation, but it looked lethal when winning the Newmarket Handicap on a dry track. If the track stays dry it should go close to winning.
Race 4 tip: Redkirk Warrior to win ($3.10) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 5 – Danehill 3YO Stakes (1200m)
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Jukebox is an unbeaten colt which had to work for the win last start. The Ciaron Maher-trained son of Snitzel scored two wins to start its career which included a romp in the Inglis 2YO and its win in the Vain Stakes showed some class. It brings a fair amount of class to this field and the $5 odds on offer will be quickly snapped up by some punters, but this is a red-hot field.
Catchy might have been beaten by Crown Witness when fresh up in the Quezette Stakes, but it lost no admirers. Coming off a tough showing in the Golden Slipper, a run below par was to be expected, but it will be ready to fire in this. The Blue Diamond winner has beaten some tough fields over its career and getting $4 seems generous from bookmakers. Drawing barrier eight should give it all favours down the straight.
Race 5 tip: Catchy to win ($4) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 6 – Let’s Elope Stakes (1400m)
Oregon’s Day showed why punters were confident last start, but it has been given another wide draw which will make it tough. The Mick Price-trained four-year-old has drawn barrier 16 for this, but Mark Zahra will likely drag it back and use the entire Flemington straight to get warmed up. It’s the best track for it and the $5 could be worth the risk.
I Am a Star made good ground late in the Memsie Stakes last start and it’s a course specialist at Flemington. The Sunline Stakes winner has won three of its four starts at Flemington and despite wanting a little more distance, it looks ready to fire here and it has drawn to receive all favours. The current price of $4.80 should hold steady.
Race 6 tip: Oregon’s Day to place ($2) at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 7 – Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m)
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Hartnell is dominating the market at $1.75 and rightfully so. The Cummings-trained superstar scored an easy win in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes at Caulfield last start and running second-up has never been a worry for the former import. The son of Authorized has been successfully avoiding Winx this campaign, which is a wise move, and its confidence should be getting bolstered. The money looks well placed.
Black Heart Bart produced a game effort behind Vega Magic in the Memsie Stakes and punters will always come for this tough customer. The Weir-trained winner of 16 races might be past its best, but it keeps producing good efforts and conditions look ideal for this. Getting onto the back of Hartnell could be the key, but it might need a superior turn-of-foot to reel it in.
Race 7 tip: Hartnell to win ($1.70) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 8 – Japan Racing Association (2500m)
Crocodile Rock has been hammered in the betting from $6 to $4.40. The Lloyd Williams-owned import was beaten in a rating 78-graded race last start, but has attracted the most attention of any runner in the field. That’s a good sign as it could be stable money and Kerrin McEvoy is in the saddle, which is another good sign.
Almandin might suffer from second-up syndrome here, but it was impressive in running second last start. The Melbourne Cup returned in great order and it returns to the track where it scored its most famous victory to date. Stablemate to Crocodile Rock, Almandin has drifted in the betting, but it goes well second up and that should instil some confidence.
Race 8 tip: Crocodile Rock to win ($4.40) at WilliamHill.com.au
Race 9 – Sofitel Girls Day Out (1700m)
Tiamo Grace had no luck in the Heatherlie Handicap last start after getting shut out in the straight at a vital stage. The Weir-trained four-year-old won its only start at Flemington in the Wakeful Stakes and that form should be strong for this. The light weight helps and the $6.50 has been backed in from $7.
Amelie’s Star looks set for a win after two pleasing runs this campaign. The Weir-trained six-year-old won the Queen of the South in Adelaide before running fourth in the Doomben Cup. It made good late ground behind Hell or Highwater last start and that form looks best for this. It has attracted plenty of attention at $3.60.
Race 9 tip: Amelie’s Star to win ($3.60) at Bet365.com