Group One Betting Guide
|Location:||Flemington Racecourse – Victoria, Australia|
Flemington hosts the Group 1 Lightning Stakes which has since been renamed the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes after the champion mare dominated the race for three successive years.
Black Caviar made the Lightning Stakes its own, but the winners list also features some of Australia’s other sprinting champions and it is firmly one of the biggest races of the year. The Black Caviar Lightning Stakes will next be run on February 13, 2021.
The Group 1 weight-for-age sprint has a purse of $750,000 and due to the timing of the race in February, it gains all the attention from the betting public.
The Lightning Stakes is the first of three big sprint events in Melbourne for the Autumn carnival, with the Oakleigh Plate at Caulfield and the Newmarket Handicap at Flemington in the weeks following the Lightning Stakes.
2021 Lightning Stakes betting odds
With markets released during the week of the race, bookmakers tend to leave all-in markets on the sidelines for the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes.
Best Lightning Stakes bookmakers
All of our listed bookmakers will offer all-in and fixed odds betting on the Lighting Stakes.The sprint is one of the most popular betting races on the Australian racing calendar so the bookmakers know how important framing the best value market is.
Lightning Stakes History
- Dates back to 1955 with Group One status since 1987
- Named after the champion, and unbeaten mare Black Caviar who won the race in 2011, 2012, 2013
- Other Notable Winners: Todman (1960); Sky High (1961/62); Dual Choice (1971); Maybe Mahal (1977/78); River Rough (1984/85); Placid Ark (1987); Shaftesbury Avenue (1991); Schillaci (1992/93); Mahogany (1995/97); General Nediym (1998); Testa Rossa (2000); Choisir (2003); Fastnet Rock (2005); Takeover Target (2006); Apache Cat (2008); Nicconi (2010); Lankee Rupee (2015); Chautauqua (2016)
- Leading Trainer: The late Bart Cummings holds the record with seven wins. Lee Freedman won six with Miss Andretti (2007) the most recent.
- Leading Jockey: Damien Oliver holds the record with five wins.
Lightning Stakes betting guide
The Lightning Stakes has not been a good betting race for favourites punters in recent history. Three of the past four winners of the Lightning Stakes have come in at double figure odds, with the exception being In Her Time in 2019 when saluting at $4.40
Black Caviar won at minuscule odds from 2011-2013 and other favourites include Miss Andretti in 2007 and Chautauqua in 2016.
The likes of Lankan Rupee, Apache Cat and Nicconi were all well-favoured in the betting with Scenic Blast and Gytrash the only runners to cause an upset in the last 10 years when it won paying $20.
There has been some beaten favourites which have given punters a headache. Quality sprinters Alinghi, Schillaci and Show County all finished second as the favourite.
Also included in the beaten favourites list was the highly-touted Deep Field, Weekend Hussler and Hareeba which ran as the $1.36 elect. Nature Strip also went around as a $1.35 favourite in 2020 but could do no better than a fourth placed finish.
There have been only six double-figure odds winners in the last 30 years so backing the well-favoured runners usually seen as a smart Lightning Stakes strategy.
Fillies and mares have a good record in the Lightning Stakes with recent winners including Black Caviar, Miss Andretti, In Her Time, Snitzerland, Regimental Gal and Spinning Hill.
Running down the Flemington straight doesn’t suit every sprinter in Australia, so it’s best to make note of which runners have experience running down the straight. Some horses often need a turn to produce their best turn-of-foot, whereas others can sprint when asked.
The best barrier to jump from is barrier two. Seven of the last 37 winners have jumped from barrier two with the next best barriers being five and one.
Damien Oliver is a rider to follow with five wins in the Lightning Stakes including consecutive wins in the race aboard Schillaci. The champion jockey has had a great record in the race and he knows how to ride Flemington better than any other current Victoria rider.
Recent Lightning Stakes winners
It looked to be a one act affair in the 2020 Lightning Stakes with superstar sprinter Nature Strip jumping as a $1.35 favourite. However, it was the Gordon Richards trained Gytrash who produced an electric turn of foot to claim the 2020 Lightning Stakes and put to bed a small field of proven Group 1 superstars. Nature Strip was in strife early on after racing keenly throughout, and with the leader Redzel there for the taking over the final furlong, Gytrash stormed past the former Everest champion and got the job done quite comfortably in the end by a length.
The market was having a tough time discerning who should be the 2019 Lightning Stakes favourite, with Sunlight jumping as the $3.20 top elect. The fav made the early pace too, looking to lead from start to finish but as the champion filly wilted in the final stages it was In Her Time that took the front and ran strongly to the line. Godolphin sprinter Osborne Bulls charged home late and only narrowly missed out as In Her Time gripped on for a powerful win.
Terravista won the Lightning a year ago and was arguably unlucky not to win in 2016 when beaten in a photo finish. The eight-year-old gelding flies fresh and loves the Flemington straight. He has also won a Group One Darley Classic and placed in two others, including his second to Redzel last spring.
It was one of the more eventful Lightning Stakes in the race’s history with Terravista ($15) coming from last to first to win the group 1 race. Another Sydney horse Spieth ($6) finished second, but it was a pre-race incident that added to the drama. The usually quiet horse The Quarterback threw his jockey off and went to the ground and lashed out at horses around him, with the large crowd holding its breath only for jockey Matt Allen to jump to his feet fine. Subsequently The Quarterback, Faatinah and Orujo were all withdrawn from the race. Star Turn ($4) managed to hold on for third. It was a brilliant result for Terravista, who at one time was regarded as the world’s best sprinter, but has been beset by injury woes in the last few years. Read full report.
Chautauqua solidified its status as one of the world’s best sprinters when taking out the 2016 Lightning Stakes. The Hawkes-trained start was the short favourite to win the sprint and it only narrowly scored the prize by a nose over Terravista and Japonisme in third. It ran a quick time of 57.02 for the 1000m and it would later win the T.J. Smith Stakes and The Chairman’s Sprint Prize in Hong Kong.
Lankan Rupee scored one of the most impressive Lightning Stakes wins in 2015. The Mick Price-trained gelding exploded in the straight to win by almost three lengths over the likes of Brazen Beau and race-favourite Deep Field. The son of Redoute’s Choice was a well-backed runner at $2.60 and it gave jockey Craig Newitt his second win in the race.
The 2014 edition of the Lightning Stakes was one of the most even betting fields where Snitzerland was victorious. The Gerald Ryan-trained mare jumped well for jockey Brenton Avdulla before being taken on in the lead. It was pushed forward at the 300m and it had a big enough break to hold off the closing Shamexpress and Samaready. Snitzerland paid $5 with bookmakers with the disappointing effort coming from third favourite Bernabeau which finished last.
The mighty Black Caviar made it three consecutive Lightning Stakes wins in 2013. The six-year-old mare controlled the race from the outset before jockey Luke Nolen asked the champion to extend. Black Caviar burst clear at the 200m and put 2.5 lengths on the rest of the field at the finish. The Lightning Stakes was one of Black Caviar’s last races and although punters didn’t get rich taking the $1.10 on offer, the victory will remain one of the greatest in the sprint’s history.
The 2012 Lightning Stakes was one of the best fields assembled and Black Caviar made them look second rate. The daughter of Bel Esprit won by 1.8 lengths at short odds of $1.10 and it defeated the likes of Hay List, Buffering, Foxwedge, Temple Of Boom and Golden Slipper winner Phelan Ready. Black Caviar also won in 2011 which kicked off a three-year domination.
Lightning Stakes winners list
|2019||In Her Time|
|1982||He’s A Haze|
|1973||Make Mine Roses|