Grafton Carnival racing tips & best bets – Sunday, 5 July 2020

Grafton horse racing

It’s Day 1 of the Grafton Carnival this Sunday, with the South Grafton Cup the feature event on a seven-race card that kicks off at 12:10pm AEST. The track is rated a Soft 5 and the rail is in the true position for the entire circumference of the course.

Free betting tips for Grafton Carnival – Day 1

Best Bet
Race 5 – Bugalugs @ $3.50 Sportsbet

The brilliantly named Bugalugs bolted in by nearly five lengths at Casino last start, leading from barrier to box, and we see no reason why the gelding can’t do that again here. Drawn well in barrier four, classy country jockey Ben Looker will take him to the front and hope to hold out his 12 rivals. Looker partnered the horse last start and has retained the ride, which is a promising sign for a jockey of his calibre. Dropping 1.5kg for this 1400m handicap, the four-year-old will be very hard to beat. He is a winner at this trip and has placed second twice at Grafton. His Casino win came on rain-affected going, so that is another tick in his box. Bugalugs will no doubt have a lot of support on raceday.

Next Best
Race 6 – Jazzland @ $6 Sportsbet

We like the chances of five-year-old gelding Jazzland in the feature race on the program. He was pulled up at Randwick last time out to run 12th of 12 in Saturday grade at what was an unsuitable distance at 1200m on a very heavy track. We are putting a line through his first-up run, however, and drawing our attention to his three wins from five runs in his last campaign, including a Kensington win on Melbourne Cup Day as a very well backed favourite over the 1550m trip. He placed in his only previous start at Grafton and holds a formidable record over the mile journey (4:2-1-0), so we expect him to improve a lot here. Koby Jennings, who is another very good country hoop, takes the ride and will give him every opportunity up on the speed from barrier seven. He has placed three times on a soft track, including a win, so the sting out will not be an issue. This looks to be the perfect race for Jazzland.

Best Value
Race 2 – Quizzical Deel @ $18 Sportsbet

We are siding with Quizzical Deel in this 1400m maiden plate. The two-year-old gelding has had just the one run at Hawkesbury over 1500m when placed seven of eight. He’s now had a month off racing and drops back 100m in trip, which will suit first up, being by Dundeel. Despite the first-start effort on a Soft 5, we think he should handle the give in the ground and improve lengths off his debut run. Jockey Noriyuki Masuda and trainer Ethan Ensby have a 12% win rate together and a 95.7% ROI, which is worth following here. Quizzical Deel will likely go forward from barrier nine and look to settle just off the leading trio. Two-year-olds often go well against the older horses in maiden races later in the year, so we are happy to have something each way at the $18 quote.

Quaddie Tips

R4. 1-4-5
R5. 4
R6. 1-3-4-9-10-13
R7. 1-2-10

$54 for 100% Sportsbet