2022 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes preview & betting strategy | 17/9
| What | Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes 2022 |
| Where | Caulfield Racecourse |
| When | Saturday, September 17, 2022 | Race 7 | 4:15pm AEST |
| Prizemoney | $1,000,000 |
| Distance | 1400m |
| Status | Group 1 |
| Conditions | Handicap |
| 2021 Winner | Sierra Sue (8) | T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | J: Daniel Moor (52.5kg) |
The Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) is the headline event at Caulfield on Saturday afternoon and a capacity field of 16 (with four emergencies) set to do battle. Market favourite with online bookmakers I Wish I Win ($3.60) is need of a couple of scratchings as he is the second emergency in the race. Outside of that, Ayrton ($6.50) and Showmanship are the only other two runners in single figures.
Keep reading for HorseBetting’s full runner-by-runner preview and $100 betting strategy.
1. DALASAN (11)
6yoH | T: Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas | J: Jason Holder (58kg)
It had been a long time between drinks for the Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas-trained Dalasan who brought up a long overdue win in the Leon Macdonald Stakes. The six-year-old had to travel three wide, albeit with a back to follow, on that day and managed to show the racing public he still has what it takes. The query is whether he is up to Group 1 standard. He has a record of 19: 0-1-3 at the highest level and the fact he needs to lug 58kg in this and give weight to all of his rivals has us looking elsewhere.
2. LAWS OF INDICES (7)
4yoH | T: Annabel Neasham | J: John Allen (58kg)
The Annabel Neasham-trained has not tasted success in over 14 months and hardly fired a shot in his autumn company. Despite competing in Group 1 races up in Queensland, this looks to be much harder than those and at $31 with Ladbrokes, he looks to be massive unders at the price.
3. SINAWANN (3)
5yoH | T: Anthony & Sam Freedman | J: Ben Melham (58kg)
One we are willing to give a big push at a price is the Anthony & Sam Freedman-trained Sinawann. He resumed with a midfield finish in the Regal Roller Stakes at Caulfield on August 13 behind Uncommon James, but considering he has not won in six first-up runs, he clearly appreciates getting a run under his belt. He dramatically improves second-up having won three times from five starts, which included a win over I Am Superman and Streets Of Avalon in the Kevin Heffernan Stakes on November 11. He draws perfectly in barrier three and despite the draw, look for Ben Melham to have him settled midfield with cover. Armed with a devastating turn of foot on his day, look for Sinawann to be launching down the centre of the track late and at $26 with online betting sites is our top tip in the Sir Rupert Clarke.
4. CALLSIGN MAV (12)
6yoG | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Jamie Mott (57.5kg)
The Danny O’Brien-trained Callsign Mav faded badly late on in the Memsie Stakes when beaten 4.6 lengths behind Snapdancer. He settled on the girth of the eventual winner and upon turner simply couldn’t go with the two-time Group 1 winner. From barrier 12, with plenty of speed in this he maps trickily and we expect to see him start at a much bigger quote than the $35 currently being shopped.
5. I AM SUPERMAN (19)
6yoG | T: Peter & Paul Snowden | J: Mark Zahra (57.5kg)
Having his last start in Australia, I Am Superman was at his best when finishing second to Mr Brightside in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes first-up, but we can’t see him figuring in this. He draws barrier 19 and much the same as he six-length defeat in the Stradbroke Handicap earlier in the year, he looks to have too much to do from too far back.
6. JUST FOLK (5)
6yoG | T: Josh Julius | J: Harry Coffey (57.5kg)
The Josh Julius-trained Just Folk should have won the Leon Macdonald Stakes had he run straight but kept hanging out throughout the home straight. He is a runner who needs the rain to arrive, which he may get, but unless it gets too heavy, it is hard to see how the mudlark fights out the finish in Group 1 company.
7. GRACEFUL GIRL (4)
5yoM | T: Danny O’Brien| J: Jamie Kah (57kg)
On the quick seven-day backup from finishing fifth in the Bobbie Lewis Quality, the Danny O’Brien-trained Graceful Girl will need a sharp form reversal to be competitive in this. The tricky draw of barrier one has the five-year-old mare needing more luck than you could ask for and despite the booking of Jamie Kah, it is going to take a near miracle for Graceful Girl to triumph. She does improve third-up, but it is just a shame she has drawn the pole.
8. AYRTON (4)
5yoG | T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | J: Damian Lane (56.5kg)
Could Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr pick up a second Group 1 in a week? That will be the aim when Ayrton steps out in the Sir Rupert Clarke looking to replicate the feats of stablemate, I’m Thunderstruck. It is simply impossible to knock his record first-up and at Caulfield. He has four wins from as many starts at the track and has the exact same record first-up. He was beaten 4.45 lengths in the Stradbroke Handicap having travelled four wide with no cover and the start prior simply did not handle the heavy ground when chasing home Zaaki in the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes. If the rain stays away, the $6.50 looks inviting, but considering he has failed at his only start on rain-affected ground has us wary. There’s no questioning his class and on his record alone, Ayrton is almost a certainty to finish top three.
9. HILAL (20)
4yoH | T: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes | J: Jye McNeil (56.5kg)
Having finished fourth behind the likes of Anamoe and Fangirl in the Winx Stakes second-up, Hilal from the Hawkes stable comes to Melbourne looking for Group 1 glory. However, he has drawn horrendously wide in barrier 20 (16 following scratching’s) and with plenty of speed in the race, he may get trapped three or four wide the trip. There’s also a slight question as to whether he is up to it at this level under handicap conditions, considering he is only 1.5kg off the top weight. We’re looking elsewhere
10. SHOWMANSHIP (10)
7yoG | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Damien Oliver (56.5kg)
Having really knuckled down inside the final 100m in the Group 3 Show County Quality, Showmanship looks to have returned in fine form this campaign. He had to bide his time at Randwick for a run to come, but once he did, the Danny O’Brien-trained galloper was never going to beaten. He has an incredible record of eight wins from 10 starts, with a bombproof record of four wins from as many starts at the 1400m. He is undefeated on good ground and has three wins to his name on rain-affected going which screams out versatility. The son of Showcasing will be giving his rivals a start, but armed with a strong turn of foot, we expect Damien Oliver to have Showmmanship fighting out the finish on Saturday.
11. RED CAN MAN (17)
6yoG | T: Steve Wolfe | J: Luke Nolen (56kg)
The Steve Wolfe-trained Red Can Man is another who is on the quick backup from the Bobbie Lewis Quality and was ultra-impressive when beaten just over a length having raced up on speed. He will need to go forward once again on Saturday having drawn barrier 17, but much the same as a runner like Hilal, he may just get trapped wide throughout. If the rain does arrive, he may be one to come out and be saved for another day considering he has no wins on wet ground from seven starts.
12. BUFFALO RIVER (16)
6yoG | T: Mike Moroney | J: Daniel Stackhouse (55.5kg)
The Mike Moroney-trained Buffalo River must be one hell of a runner to own, but is extremely frustrating to back as a punting conveyance. The six-year-old gelding was engaged in a genuine speed battle throughout his last start at the track and trip and faded to finish 10th, beaten 7.5-lengths. He will certainly appreciate the cut out of the ground, but with plenty of speed influencers, we expect he will be softened up with 300m to go and struggle in the concluding stages.
13. AYSAR (9)
5yoH | T: Ben & JD Hayes | J: Craig Williams (55kg)
Aysar managed to break a massive run of outs when he saluted in the Listed Chautauqua Stakes at Moonee Valley on September 3. However, this is a massive step up in grade and unfortunately, he doesn’t quite look up to Group 1 level. The $41 on offer with Bet365 looks to be unders.
14. BANKERS CHOICE (18)
5yoG | T: Mike Moroney | J: Craig Newitt (54.5kg)
Former Kiwi Bankers Choice from the Mike Moroney yard has simply failed to fire a shot since coming to Australia. The five-year-old gelding was beaten close to seven-lengths behind I Wish I Win when simply not having the turn of foot over 1400m. If anything, his chances increase if the track stays dry, but we are happy to let him go around without our hard earned on.
15. TUVALU (13)
5yoG | T: Lindsey Smith | J: Jarrod Fry (54.5kg)
Tuvalu from the Lindsey Smith barn gets his chance at Group 1 level having progressed nicely throughout the grades last preparation. He looks to be a bit too tight in the markets considering this is his first crack at the highest level. However, with seven wins and four seconds from 11 starts, his record speaks for itself and must be respected. We anticipate he will start $20+ based on the unknown, but if Jarrod Fry can have him settled close to the speed with cover, anything is possible…
16. CHAILLOT (6)
6yoM | T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | J: Daniel Moor (53kg)
Now with the Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr yard, Chaillot presents a bit of the unknown when she steps out at Group 1 level for the first time. Despite not running a drum in her previous four starts at the elite level, the six-year-old mare has four wins from five starts when fresh and three wins from starts at 1400m to suggest on paper, she’s a chance. $19 is a fair price for her considering she will be close to last upon settling, but if the true Chaillot rocks up on Saturday, she has the ability to just blow her rivals away with just 53kg on her back.
2022 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Emergencies
17. DRAGON LEAP (15)
6yoG | T: Lance O’Sullivan & Andrew Scott | J: Michael Dee (54.5kg)
Arguably the eye-catcher from the Memsie Stakes was the Kiwi from the Lance O’Sullivan & Andrew Scott yard, Dragon Leap. He finished fourth on that day beaten 3.5 lengths to suggest he would be more than capable of taking out a Group 1 at his next start. He needs a scratching to get in which looks likely based on the weather, but the 1400m against some proven runners at the trip is a slight query. We expect to see him finish in the first half of the field if he gains a start, but whether he is a winning chance remains to be seen.
18. I WISH I WIN (14)
4yoG | T: Peter Moody | J: Jamie Kah (54kg)
Race favourite I Wish I Win needs two of the confirmed 16 to come out of the field to gain a start, and if he does…look out. He showed he is every bit of a Group 1 runner on his Australian debut when putting four-lengths on his rivals at this track trip and looked to have plenty left in reserve. He was $6.50 into a $2.90 favourite on his local debut and all the talk from the stable in the lead up to his dominant win was he is something to behold. If he gains a start, Jamie Kah (who will jump off Graceful Girl) will need to be at her best to have him in clear air approaching the home turn. If he is within striking distance at the furlong mark, he should prove too hard to hold out….but is $3.90 too short for a runner not guaranteed a start? We’ll need to wait and find out.
19. AGE OF CHIVALRY (8)
7yoG | T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | J: Ethan Brown (54kg)
The Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr-trained Age Of Chivalry has not won in close to a year, but the way he returned over 1200m in the Chautauqua Stakes suggests another win is not too far away. However, that will not be on Saturday even if by some miracle he gains a start in the field.
20. OPEN MINDED (2)
6yoG | T: Anthony & Sam Freedman | J: Damien Thornton (53.5kg)
The Anthony & Sam Freedman-trained Open Minded is going to need two miracles on Saturday. First one, four scratching’s are needed to gain a start and secondly, he needs each of his 16 rivals to be well below their best. He’s just not up to it at Group 1 level.
2022 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Selections & Best Bet
Selections:
-
3
SINAWANN
-
18
I WISH I WIN
-
8
AYRTON
-
10
SHOWMANSHIP
| Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes $100 betting strategy | |
|---|---|
| $50 Each-Way | SINAWANN ($27.00 / $7.00) |