|What||2021 Doncaster Mile|
|Where||Royal Randwick Racecourse – Alison Rd, Randwick NSW|
|When||Saturday, April 10, 2021 | 4:35pm AEDT | Race 9|
|Race Conditions||Handicap, Minimum Weight 49.5kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards|
|2020 Winner||#18 Nettoyer – 56.5kg (8) | Jockey: James Innes Jr | Trainer: Wendy ROche|
2021 Doncaster Mile Betting Preview
The 2021 Doncaster Mile is upon us this Saturday and what a cracking field it is to contest this $3M time honoured event. Run over 1600m at Group 1 Handicap conditions, a capacity field of 20 + 2EM has been assembled, including eleven Group 1 winners. The feature mile at Royal Randwick has been won by some genuine equine champions, including Sunline, More Joyous, Sacred Falls, Winx and Happy Clapper, with this year’s winner unlikely to look out of place on the honour roll.
It is a wide open betting affair as it usually is, with All-Star Mile winner, Mugatoo holding favouritism at $4.50, ahead of Mo’unga and Yao Dash the other runners in single figures at $9, while Think It Over and Aegon sit on the fourth line of betting at $11. Gai Waterhouse has won this race seven times and saddles up equal third favourite Yao Dash and Group 1 winning mare Shout The Bar in this year’s event.
As is always the case in these types of races, it will be run at a solid clip thanks to speed from Yao Dash, Samadoubt, I Am Superman, Best Of Days and Shout The Bar who will cross over from deeper out. Mugatoo and Aegon should get great runs in transit from their good barriers, while other market fancies Mo’unga, Think It Over and Avilius are going to have it all to do late. Horsebetting.com.au has covered every runner in the 2021 Doncaster Mile with reasons why they can and cannot win the $3M feature.
Doncaster Mile Formm Guide
1 – Mugatoo (4)
Trainer: Kris Lees | Jockey: Hugh Bowman (56kg)
Why he can win: The race favourite comes into this event off a career PB when winning the $5M All-Star Mile at The Valley on March 13. He was aided by Hugh Bowman on that occasion too, so the partnership has already reaped the benefits. Drawn perfectly in gate four, they won’t be too far away again and should be able to sprint off the four-week freshen up.
Why he can’t win: Of the leading fancies, this six-year-old European is yet to win his first Group 1, and with the top weight in one of Australia’s toughest races, it isn’t an easy one to start.
2 – Avilius (12)
Trainer: James Cummings | Jockey: James McDonald (56kg)
Why he can win: Avilius comes into this off a luckless third in the George Ryder last start when coming from last to be beaten by only two tenths of a length by Think It Over. After being set for Caulfield and Melbourne Cups in his past few campaigns, it is clear that Cummings has taken the ‘Hartnell approach’ with the seven-year-old and aiming him at these Handicap races at the mile. The strong tempo will aid his fast finishing pattern.
Why he can’t win: The three time Group 1 winner looks to be in his twilight years now and hasn’t found his best for some time with his last win coming in the George Main Stakes back in September 2019. ‘J-Mac’ will have his work cut out from near last.
3 – Samadoubt (14)
Trainer: Bjorn Baker | Jockey: Josh Parr (56kg)
Why he can win: The seven-year-old had a long time between his first-up run this campaign, so he should be reaching peak fitness now third-up and up to the mile where he has three wins from five attempts, including a Group 2. He will be up on the speed so bad luck should be taken out of the equation.
Why he can’t win: His best is well and truly behind him and he hasn’t come back as well as he was going in 2019. Tough ask to see him lead all the way with 56kg.
4 – Star of the Seas (9)
Trainer: Chris Waller | Jockey: Sam Clipperton (54kg)
Why he can win: Star of the Seas was runner up in this race last year was 53kg so he only rises 1kg for this edition and is drawn barrier nine which should see him settle a touch closer. His form hasn’t be too bad this time in either, and there is likely to be some cut in the ground which will suit.
Why he can’t win: He looked a genuine winning chance at the top of the straight in the George Ryder last time out and just didn’t sprint like we have seen before. He couldn’t fend off Nettoyer last year, hard to see him holding out the likes of Mugatoo, Mo’unga and Aegon with a kilogram more this year.
5 – Olmedo (5)
Trainer: Annabel Neasham | Jockey: Tommy Berry (54kg)
Why he can win: This French import was a winner of the Group 1 French 2000 Guineas back in 2018 over the mile and he finished only two and a half lengths off Yulong Prince in the Cantala Stakes on Derby Day last year.
Why he can’t win: The six-year-old entire just hasn’t fired a shot in three Australian starts and is poorly weighted considering.
6 – Shout The Bar (20)
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | Jockey: Tim Clark (53.5kg)
Why she can win: The four-year-old mare won the Vinery Stud Stakes this time twelve months ago and then backed that Group 1 win up with another in the Empire Rose Stakes against her own sex at Flemington in the Spring. She will be a forward position and the trainer/jockey combo strikes at 19%.
Why she can’t win: While she will go forward, she isn’t a leader per se, so from the carpark draw she could be caught out in no man’s land. Not sure she is up to this level.
7 – Gem Song (19)
Trainer: Kris Lees | Jockey: Jason Collett (53.5kg)
Why he can win: Gem Song made his long awaited race track return in February with a slashing fourth behind subsequent Group 1 winner Masked Crusader. Lees then took him to his home track, beating Bottega in the Newcastle Newmarket which is a race that often stacks up. He is going well enough.
Why he can’t win: Again, the wide barrier makes it hard for this five-year-old to breakthrough in his maiden Group 1. He looked to have every chance last start but just couldn’t go on with the job. He’d be better suited in a Group 2 or 3.
8 – Zaaki (22)
Trainer: Annabel Neasham | Jockey: Regan Bayliis (53.5kg)
Why he can win: The European import is having his first Australian start but showed some ability in two nice trials since arriving in the Neasham camp. He brings form from all over the world, including a win in the Queen Anne at Ascot where he defeated Barney Roy.
Why he can’t win: Barrier 22 was just the nail in the coffin for Annabel Neasham who has three runners in this race, with two of those taking up the outside two. The gate will make it very hard for the six-year-old who hasn’t won since August 2019.
9 – Aegon (7)
Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman | Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy (53kg)
Why he can win: This New Zealand three-year-old has a sense of X Factor about him with five wins from six career starts. He won the New Zealand 2000 Guineas at Group 1 level in November over the mile, and backed it up by beating Amarelinha in the Karaka Million 3YO Classic before decimating his rivals in the Hobartville in his first Australian start. Five weeks between runs, a good gate and cut out of the ground gives him every chance. He profiles very similarly to his sire Sacred Falls who won this race twice.
Why he can’t win: The three-year-old has to carry 53kg in this Handicap event, which is 3.5kg more than what the two other three-year-olds in the race have to carry. His only defeat on race day came at this track and distance last start albeit on a short turnaround which he didn’t handle.
10 – Cascadian (3)
Trainer: James Cummings | Jockey: Jamie Kah (53kg)
Why he can win: This flashy chestnut is now third up into his campaign with this race having been the target all along. He has drawn a good alley which could see him settle a touch closer and he gets the ultimate gear change – Jamie Kah First Time.
Why he can’t win: He is simply the ultimate tease. Cascadian always gets back and looks to threaten with his fast closing sectionals but he leaves his run too late. It has been over a year since his last win; we’ll be shocked if this is where he lobs.
11 – Dalasan (1)
Trainer: Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas | Jockey: Jason Holder (53kg)
Why he can win: The South Australian was on a SA Derby path this time last year which ultimately saw him finish second to Russian Camelot, so the fact that he has been trained as a miler this time around suggests he should be peaking third up. He had no luck last start in the George Ryder which would have kept him somewhat fresh for this.
Why he can’t win: The one time budding super star just hasn’t come on from his 2019 Spring 3YO season like we expected and now seems to just be ‘one of those milers’. He is likely to get buried away on the fence back in the ruck and will have too much to do.
12 – Think It Over (18)
Trainer: Kerry Parker | Jockey: Glen Boss (52.5kg)
Why he can win: Think It Over is peaking at the right time, winning two of his last three, including victory in the George Ryder Stakes a fortnight ago. He drops 6.5kg from his WFA win and gets Glen Boss again who has won the Doncaster numerous times. He loves Randwick and is absolutely flying.
Why he can’t win: The five-year-old son of So You Think is somewhat the new kid on the block this Autumn. It could also be argued that he didn’t beat much last start; Dreamforce and Avilius were genuine Group 1 performers once upon a time, but they are clearly past their best. Barrier 18 can’t help either.
13 – Funstar (17)
Trainer: Chris Waller | Jockey: Craig Williams (52.5kg)
Why she can win: Funstar was a forced to be reckoned with back in the spring of 2019, beating Probabeel three times, including in the Flight Stakes at this track and trip at Group 1 level by a comfortable three lengths. Craig Williams is one of the country’s best hoops and she should be aided by a genuine clip and Chris Waller declared her as the ‘flag bearer’ for his stable this year.
Why she can’t win: We might be singing to the choir, but we might be the only ones in the crowd too mind you, but she just isn’t THAT good. The daughter of Adelaide has won five of her sixteen starts including a Group 1, but that all came in her three-year-old season with her last win coming 55 weeks ago. She is another who is a victim of the wide gate.
14 – Best Of Days (15)
Trainer: James Cummings | Jockey: Rachel King (52.5kg)
Why he can win: This Group 1 winner nearly made it two in his most recent start, going down in a photo to Homesman in the Australian Cup at Flemington back on March 6. He carried 59kg that day, so dropping back down to 52.5kg will be a massive advantage. It is fair to say the mile is his best trip and he is racing really well this time around.
Why he can’t win: Barrier 15 is an awkward alley for any horse, but especially this bloke. Drawn out in the cheap seats, Rachel King will likely take him forward which will spell trouble for the seven-year-old who won’t have the tactical speed to win this. It wasn’t a strong Australian Cup either.
15 – I Am Superman (10)
Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden | Jockey: Andrew Adkins (52kg)
Why he can win: This five-year-old import is one of only five runners to come into this off a last start victory, so he should have plenty of well-needed confidence. He beat Think It Over in the Group 2 Ajax Stakes at Rosehill on March 13 who was a subsequent Group 1 winner and sits in the top four in the market, so that will no doubt count for plenty. Of the pacemakers in the race, he is probably drawn the best in barrier 10, so he will nearly box seat.
Why he can’t win: While he did beat Think It Over last time out, he meets that gelding 1kg worse off at the weight which will make it hard to hold on to the three-quarters of a length margin. He has had three shots at the highest level and is yet to place.
16 – Rock (8)
Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes | Jockey: James Innes Jr (52kg)
Why he can win: Rock has the guidance of last year’s Doncaster winning jockey James Innes Jr which will be advantageous in what is always a high pressure race, and he should be peaking third up off a seven day turnaround. He had a good hit-out at Rosehill on the weekend, finishing fourth to Yao Dash coming home well against the pattern of the day.
Why he can’t win: While this five-year-old son of Pierro is Group 1 placed, we don’t have him pegged as a Group 1 winner in waiting. He always runs home strongly and has a win in him most campaigns, but he hasn’t ever gone close at Randwick or over the mile. Not here.
17 – Nettoyer (6)
Trainer: Wendy Roche | Jockey: Michael Poy (51kg)
Why she can win: She did it last year. In what was the upset of the carnival, turned feel good story of the Autumn, Nettoyer defied the $41 quote to win the Doncaster 12-months ago. The pizza loving mare has drawn well in gate six and remarkably drops half a kilogram this year despite winning in 2020.
Why she can’t win: It has been 12 months since her last victory and she has been nothing but ordinary in every run, being beaten roughly 60 lengths in just nine starts. It was a fluke last year and it would be a miracle if she managed to go back to back.
18 – Yao Dash (11)
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | Jockey: Michael Dee (50.5kg)
Why he can win: Yao Dash has certainly turned his career around this campaign, winning three of his last eight starts, including a dominant victory on Saturday in the Doncaster Prelude in an all-the-way win over 1500m. The Waterhouse/Bott stable have won seven Doncasters between them and this is their leading chance this time around. Drawn outside I Am Superman, he should get a cart across the face of the field to find the front.
Why he can’t win: While he has won three races this time in, they came in the form of a Class 4 on the Gold Coast, a Benchmark 88 and a Group 3, so he would need to go to a whole new level to be able to lead them from barrier to box in a Donnie.
19 – Mo’unga (21)
Trainer: Annebel Neasham | Jockey: Robbie Dolan (49.5kg)
Why he can win: The three-year-old colt comes into this fourteen days after winning the Rosehill Guineas over 2000m. Dropping back to a mile looks to be his pet distance, and while the wide barrier is far from ideal, he is a get back, run on horse anyway, so Robbie Dolan shouldn’t have to think too hard about where he goes. 49.5kg is ultra-appealing too.
Why he can’t win: Dropping back from 2000m to 1600m is never our favoured recipe for success, and he will have a lot of horses to get past in the straight.
20 – Forbidden Love (13)
Trainer: Richard & Michael Freedman | Jockey: Dean Yendall (49.5kg)
Why she can win: Similarly to Mo’unga, she gets in on the minimum which will be highly advantageous, but her point of difference is where she will be in the run. From barrier 13, Yendall will take the filly forward and look to sit outside I Am Superman or Yao Dash and with the feather weight, she could just stick on to the task. She was dominant in winning the Group 1 Surround Stakes two starts back at this track too.
Why she can’t win: She might have to do a little bit of work early from barrier 13 which won’t make it easy for her, and three-year-old fillies don’t have a good record in this race. Her better form is over shorter trips.
21 EM1 – Icebath (2)
Trainer: Brad Widdup | Jockey: Jay Ford (50.5kg)
Why she can win: Brad Widdup’s mare has been knocking on the door for a while now and she gets in light should she gain a start. From barrier two, she will be in a forward spot and can be effective late with sting out of the ground.
Why she can’t win: She has seemingly had every chance in her last few runs and hasn’t been able to win and the track isn’t going to be heavy enough.
22 EM2 – Wheelhouse (16)
Trainer: Chris Waller | Jockey: TBA (49.5kg)
Why he can win: Chris Waller’s three-year-old colt was really good in both the Randwick and Rosehill Guineas, finishing fourth and fifth respectively. With no weight, he can be finishing off well again.
Why he can’t win: He has only won the one from seven which came in a pretty weak midweek race on the Kensington track. Gate 16 will see him caught off the track in the big field.
2021 Doncaster Betting Tips
The 2021 Doncaster Mile is set to be another terrific edition, with a number of live chances bringing differing form lines into the race. We will be backing both Aegon and Mugatoo, solely because of how well they are drawn compared to the majority of their main rivals. They should both get good runs in transit, they’ve both had a freshen up so they should be able to sprint quickly at the end of a brutally run 1600 metre race and any cut out of the ground is only going to aid them further. I Am Superman is the one at big odds who we will include in our numbers given how well he maps from barrier ten, while Mo’unga cannot be ignored despite drawing the carpark as he will be motoring home late if his run in the Randwick Guineas is anything to go by.
Best bets for 2021 Tancred Stakes
|$100 betting strategy|
|$30 each way||Aegon|
|$15 boxed trifecta||1-2-9-12-15-19|