Warnambool Racing Carnival Day 3 betting – free jumps tips & form
Racing starts at 11.15am on Thursday, May 4 at the Warrnambool Race Club.
THE third and final day of the Warrnambool Racing Carnival is headlined by the Warrnambool Cup, which is always a highlight on the Australian winter racing calendar.
If day one of the carnival is any indication we are in for an action-packed second day of racing down in Victoria’s south.
We have form, odds and free tips for every race so sign up with Sportsbet.com.au for some of the best Warrnambool odds available.
Race 1 – Hammonds Paint Champ. Novices Hurdle (3200m)
We have a jumps race to kick off the final day down at the ‘Bool and a pair of Weir runners look to be the standouts here.
Waxing is a runner that looks like it will relish the jumps conditions here. Last week it won an open hurdles race at Warnmbool, proving it has what it takes to negotiate the obstacles. A strong performance from the seven-year-old is expected.
The other galloper we like the look of is Try Four. Like its stablemate, the six-year-old went well over an open hurdle race a week ago and has a great winning and place strike-rate across its career. If it can overcome the additional weight it should be right in the mix.
Race 1 tip: Try Four to win at Bet365.com
Race 2 – No Fuss Event Hire 2.yo Handicap (1200m)
In a field of nine runners we have just two horses that have raced competitively before, so we can’t, in good faith deliver a tip in this race.
However, there are two runners that could fight it out if the breeding and bloodlines ring true.
Main Stage trailed well at Cranbourne just over a week ago and comes into the race as one of the main elects. The market can sometimes be the best indicator in a field that has a number of first starters so the short odds available across all bookmakers has caught our eye.
Hecta is a colt that has not had any public trials, but comes highly credentialed out of the Symon Wilde stable. Wilde also has a stake in the two-year-old colt which is always a great marker that the horse could have an immense amount of talent.
Race 2 tip: Hecta to win at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 3 – Mercedes Benz Open Handicap (1400m)
Plein Ciel looks to be the standout runner in a smaller field. The German import could not have been more impressive for the Weir stable since arriving in Australia back in late 2016. The horse is yet to taste defeat on Australian soil and we are not expecting that trend to discontinue on Thursday.
Moss ‘N’ Dale is the next best horse in the field and the biggest rival to the German. The only issue is the horse has not won since September of last year. The run at Mornington first up in March was uninspiring but the market has maintained faith in the talented horse.
We are taking Plein Ciel though. It is our best bet of the third day at Warnmbool.
Race 3 tip: Plein Ciel to win at CrownBet.com.au
Race 4 – Schweppes BM78 (1400m)
Ciaron Maher-trained Lady Effort has raced well in its 10 start career to date and will be suited by the weight relief it has on the rest of the field. The mare is racing for the first time at Warrnambool but it has missed the placings just one in four attempts over the distance so we are expecting a solid performance.
Powerossa is an outsider in a smaller field but we have seen enough from the mare to know it will be a contender under these conditions. At the start of the year the five-year-old won over course and distance, but has failed to win since. We think it gets the perfect opportunity to bounce back on Thursday.
The dominating duo of Weir and Yendall combine on I’ll Fly Away, which is looking to return to its early career form. The mare had won three and placed once from its opening four races but as subsequently failed to place since. This race will be a great indicator of exactly where the five-year-old is at.
Race 4 tip: Powerossa to place at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 5 – Ludeman Real Estate BM64 (2000m)
In a field of 13 winning form is always going to be important and Volcan De Fuego is looking to make it three in a row on Thursday. The five-year-old is looking to make it two-from-two at the ‘Bool too.
Marcks Maha is another horse that brings in tremendous form. We are forgiving last month’s run at Sandown where it failed miserably. Prior to that the four-year-old had won three races and placed third from four races. The gelding has never missed a placing at the distance.
Vanilla Gold carries bottom weight here and is looking to maintain a 50 percent placing strike-rate. The second placing was encouraging at Hamilton two weeks ago and we think it can sneak into the placings at the ‘Bool.
Race 5 tip: Vanilla Gold to place at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 6 – The Standard BM78 (1100m)
The Weir and Yendall combination look to be the best option heading into the sixth race on the card with Nikitas. The three-year-old colt has raced almost exclusively outside Victoria so far in its career but has shown promise along the journey.
Five-year-old Sovereign Duke has been in great form recently. The gelding has finished in the quinella placings three times in its last five starts and if it can maintain that level of racing it will be right in the finish.
Marwood has been racing well recently without getting the chocolates. The six-year-old has not finished beyond three and half lengths of the winner in its last four races. Any luck in the run will see the top weight competing here.
Race 6 tip: Nikitas to win at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 7 – Waterfront By Lyndoch G.N Steeple (5500m)
After a number of flat races we return to the obstacles and we are looking to a set of last start winners to maintain their quality form.
I’ll’ava’alf was a stylish winner on day one of the Warrnambool carnival which saw its odds shorten significantly in this race. If it is able to replicate anything close to that run it will be the horse to beat here.
Lucky Tonight won excellently in steeplechase conditions two-weeks-ago at Pakenham and will look to emulate that on Thursday. The eight-year-old hammered the field to win at $6.50, so we were surprised to see it in double figures on Tuesday, but we expect the price to tighten.
Slowpoke Rodriquez is a horse that has raced almost exclusively over the obstacles for its career and is the justified favourite coming into this one. The six-year-old failed miserably in the race that Lucky Tonight took out but will benefit from the run.
Race 7 tip: Lucky Tonight to win at Bet365.com
Race 8 – Warrnambool Cup (2350m)
There are some absolute superstars running around in the feature event on the card, and a pair of very familiar names should fight out the Cup.
High Church is a runner that has always shown plenty of promise for Weir over the journey, but it is now time for the experienced runner to step up and get the job done. The Irish import comes in as one of the main fancies in the market and we are thinking it will be hard to beat.
Grey Lion has shown plenty of promise in Australia but has failed to actually register a win. A second placing in the Geelong Cup last year proved it has what it takes to salute in a race down under and any show of form would see the import go well on Thursday.
Observational is looking to make it three wins in a row. The gelding is in the best form of any horse in this race and will be hard to run down if it can recapture the winning runs of its last two starts.
Any three of these runners could take this one out but High Church is our pick. Weir will have set the horse for this one.
Race 8 tip: High Church to win at CrownBet.com.au
Race 9 – N Wilson Series Final BM70 (1700m)
Weir mare My Obsession has been in glittering form recently without winning over its last four races. The six-year-old has not missed a placing in four races and has finished within a length of the leader in two of those races. We would not be surprised to see it break through here.
Savvy Bandit is only a lightly-raced four-year-old but it has placed in exactly half of its six starts to date and won two of those. Last time out at Pakenham it dominated the field, but that was over a shorter distance. On ability it has claims here.
Lady Provocateur is a mare in good stead. Since returning this year the four-year-old has not missed the quinella placings and won in slashing fashion at Pakenham three weeks ago. Comes off the short spell and will be hard to beat.
Race 9 tip: Lady Provocatuer to win at Bet365.com
Race 10 – Scania Australia BM64 (1300m)
A huge field of 16 runners closes out the massive Warrnambool Carnival in fitting fashion over the sprint distance.
Magna Rossa at its best would torch this field, but unfortunately it has been awhile since the talented mare has saluted. The Williams runner has ran around in much better races than this though and will be fighting out the finish.
Zamboanga is looking to back up its last start win at Pakenham on Thursday. It was only a maiden victory but it was stylish enough to catch our eye. We are thinking it was a watershed moment for the gelding.
Weir three-year-old Rocket Along has the class to overcome this field here. The $5 chance at Crownbet.com.au looks to be a progressive type which can go on to bigger and better things.
Race 10 tip: Rocket Along to win at Sportsbet.com.au