The 2022 Hong Kong Vase (2400m) is the first of four Group 1 races on Hong Kong International Race-day and it’s for the stayers over the 2400m. It’s been a race traditionally dominated by the international raiders from both Europe and Japan, with last year’s champion Glory Vase looking to defend his crown and chalk up his third win in the race.
Online bookmakers have opened in favour of the previous year’s winning combination of Joao Moreira and Tomohito Ozeki with Glory Vase ($2.70) heading the market. The second line of betting we find shared between Aiden O’Brien-trained three-year-old Stone Age ($5) making the trek from America after running second in the breeder’s Cup Turf, and Japan’s Win Marilyn ($5) who is Group 1 placed in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Hanshin. The best of the Hong Kong chances seems to lie with the former Australian galloper Senor Toba ($6.50) who finds itself in the single digits as well after a career peak running in behind Romantic Warrior in the Group 2 Jockey Club Cup.
There seems to be enough speed on paper for the backmarkers to get into the race late with the likely speed coming from French galloper Botanik (Barrier-five) and Broome drawn to his outside in barrier-six. These two should be pressing forward allowing race favourite Glory Vase to slot in behind from barrier-four with Stone Age and Win Marilyn doing something similar. It looks pretty ugly for the Hong Kong trio however, with Senor Toba, Panfield and Butterfield all likely to be switched off at the back of the field or press forward with the unfortunate likelihood of being cast wide without cover.
Continue reading for HorseBetting’s preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Hong Kong Vase.
The ultra-consistent three-year-old for Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore has found his way to our top selection with Stone Age in this year’s edition of the Hong Kong Vase. His Breeder’s Cup Turf effort last start at Keeneland on November 5 was outstanding, and just ran into a future star in Rebel’s Romance on that occasion. He box-seated in behind the leaders before producing late as the eventually winner flew down his outside to beat him home by 2.3 lengths. One thing we know about this horse is the 2400m on a Good surface shouldn’t be an issue at all as he should be getting the exact same run in transit on Sunday as he did in America. His form behind horses like Luxembourg and Bay Bridge back in the UK rates extremely well here and provided star jockey Ryan Moore can get clear running turning for home from barrier-one, Stone Age should be right in the finish here.
Win Marilyn looks the best of the Japanese hopefuls for us as she comes here after a strong performance in the Group 1 QEII Cup at Hanshin on November 13. She was beaten by Geraldina who looks another superstar on the rise in Japan, so we’ve got to think the form is strong enough here in the Vase. If you go two starts back in her form as well, she beat home race favourite Glory Vase in the Group 2 Sapporo Kinen quite comfortably and has a fitness edge on her key rival here. She’s the only mare in the race, so she gets a slight weight allowance against the boys, plus in-form hoop Damian Lane sticks with her after taking the reins in the QEII.
Botanik looks the one at the big overs quote with online betting sites heading into the weekend, as William Buick takes the ride for team Godolphin and Andre Fabre. This son of Golden Horn looks to be the obviously leader from barrier five and we think there’s a slight possibility Broome continues his nasty habit of missing the start. He’ll give a strong kick and he loves the firmer surface on offer after failing at Longchamp on October 1 on ground that was bottomless. Prior to that he’d won three in a row, and if he can produce at that level here, he’ll give a great sight.
No disrespect to the reining champion Glory Vase he’s just under the odds coming here first-up and we feel isn’t going as well coming into the race as he did in the 2021 edition. His best form is clearly up to these and if you’re playing Trifecta’s and First Four’s you’d be hard pressed to leave him out. Joao Moreira looks to return to the saddle in Hong Kong a Group 1 winner as well, so this guy will just continue to firm.