Group 1 Tattersall’s Tiara betting guide, market and tips
THE Tattersall’s Tiara is the final group 1 of the Brisbane winter carnival and it runs at Eagle Farm this Saturday.
The $500,000 feature over 1400m has attracted a field of 16 runners and we have given our thoughts on all horses involved, complete with a form guide and updated odds.
Bookmakers have sided with Azkadellia which is looking to rebound after a poor Stradbroke Handicap performance and even rival trainers are pumping its tyres.
“I think you can be forgiving of Azkadellia’s Stradbroke run,” said David Pfieffer, trainer of Cradle Me. “You can’t deny what she’s done already. She’s the proven horse in the field and clearly the one to beat. From our point of view, you can look for chinks and they’re all there to be beaten.”
Sportsbet.com.au has Azkadellia at $2.25, but there are a host of value chances with all but four runners at double-figure odds.
Tattersall’s Tiara updated market
1. Azkadellia – $2.25 at Sportsbet.com.au
2. Danish Twist – $6.50
3. Precious Gem – $8
4. Cradle Me – $8.50
5. Miss Cover Girl – $34
6. Jessy Belle – $26
7. Sultry Feeling – $26
8. Press Report – $51
9. Scarlet Billows – $18
10. Echo Gal – $51
11. Artistry – $15
12. Palazzo Pubblico – $41
13. Onemorezeta – $41
14. Beatniks – $67
15. Blueberry Hill – $21
16. My Poppette – $21
Tattersall’s Tiara betting guide and tips
1. Azkadellia – $2.25
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Nick Hall
Form: 123120
Maher is looking for back-to-back Tatt’s Tiara victories with current favourite Azkadellia. The four-year-old mare finished 10th in the Stradbroke Handicap, but its form prior included a placing in the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 and it also won the Group 1 Queen of the Turf Stakes during The Championships. It has drawn in barrier 11 which won’t be an issue and it should be able to get on the right part of the track this week.
The current price isn’t overly attractive, but it has drifted out from $2.20 and it might settle around the $2.50 mark.
2. Danish Twist – $6.50
Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Form: 231111
There was no early support for Danish Twist which drifted out to $7.50, but the late money has come for the Kris Lees mare. It has now posted four consecutive victories which kicked off with the Provincial Championships at Randwick and it hasn’t looked back. Back-to-back stakes victories have brought it into contention, but the inside draw might come as a disadvantage on the new Eagle Farm track.
It will look to drift in the early stages and try get a drag into the clear around the home turn. Looks a strong each way chance at $6.50 with Crownbet.com.au.
3. Precious Gem – $8
Trainer: Henry Dwyer
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Form: 0x2116
Previous Gem came over from Victoria with solid form which included a win in the Anniversary Vase at Caulfield and it backed that up with a win in the Sangster at Morphettville. Its run for sixth in the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap was impressive as it got back in the field and flashed home late.
It is a three-time winner at this distance and Blake Shinn is riding in career-best form. It has drawn ideally in barrier four and it has the class to take home the prize.
4. Cradle Me – $8.50
Trainer: David Pfieffer
Jockey: Zac Purton
Form: 450321
The seven-year-old mare is in incredible form after winning the Dane Ripper last time out. It pushed the potential top-liner Ghisoni close in the Glenlogan Park Stakes two starts back and that form should stand up nicely for this.
It is an 11-time winner which has won on this track and although it has drawn wide in barrier 13, it’s an adaptable type which makes its own luck.
5. Miss Cover Girl – $34
Trainer: Kelly Schweida
Jockey: Damien Browne
Form: 35×274
Its opening price of $26 has drifted significantly and it doesn’t look a winning chance. The four-year-old tried hard in the QTC Cup with only 53kg on its back, but this is much harder and it hasn’t crossed the line first in some time now.
It will have it supporters, but we’ll wait till it starts in something easier.
6. Jessy Belle – $26
Trainer: Luke Oliver
Jockey: Chris Symons
Form: 453763
The form line would suggest it has no chance, but it could offer some value at the $26 with Sportsbet. It ran on well for third in the Dane Ripper and it didn’t have much luck in the straight. The seven-time winner has been flying home in all of its Queensland starts and it should be respected in an even field.
The $6.50 to place at Sportsbet is a good value option.
7. Sultry Feeling – $26
Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: James Orman
Form: 4×1170
Sultry Feeling looked good to kick off the campaign with consecutive victories. It then flashed home behind Two Blue in the Sapphire at Randwick, but this is another level and it got found out behind Precious Gem last time out.
It does rely on luck in the running and the pace will need to be strong. Can’t see it winning on the weight scale so don’t include in bets.
8. Press Report – $51
Trainer: Lee Curtis
Jockey: Ryan Wiggins
Form: 495339
Odds suggest it shouldn’t be winning this and it would be one of the biggest upsets of the year. Hasn’t won for an age and its record of two wins from 30 starts is hardly inspiring. There are better value bets at big odds in this race.
9. Scarlet Billows – $18
Trainer: Darren Weir
Jockey: Jack Hill
Form: 571084
Can’t rule out a Darren Weir-trained runner, despite his record in Queensland. Scarlet Billows flashed home late behind Blueberry Hill in the Gai Waterhouse Classic last start, but its form prior in tough races doesn’t look strong for this.
It ran eighth behind Music Magnate in the Doomben 10,000 and it looked flat when 17th in the Sangster at Morphettville. We wouldn’t rule out a win, but others look better at the double-figure price.
10. Echo Gal – $51
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Jockey: Tegan Harrison
Form: 09×063
Wasn’t far behind Blueberry Hill in the Gai Waterhouse Classic, but we’re not convinced that is the best form guide for this. It hadn’t shown much in its recent form and after looking like a promising type as a three-year-old, it just hasn’t come back in good order.
Punters are growing weary of backing Echo Gal, but it won’t take much support at $51.
11. Artistry – $15
Trainer: Peter and Paul Snowden
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Form: 418552
The four-year-old is a chance at good odds in this. It got going late in the Dane Ripper last start when it finished second and that should be a good form guide. It has won and placed over this distance and although it’s suited over the mile, it looks well-primed for a good effort.
Tricky barrier draw of 12, but watch for it late and the $4.20 to place at WilliamHill.com.au is a solid selection.
12. Palazzo Pubblico – $41
Trainer: Matthew Smith
Jockey: Michael Cahill
Form: 418552
Showed some ability when winning the Bright Shadow two starts back, but it defeated Serenade which is only a two-win horse. It wasn’t overly poor when running sixth behind Danish Twist last start and connections will be encouraged by that effort.
A win at group 1 level would certainly surprise many punters and it’s a thin top-four chance at best.
13. Onemorezeta – $41
Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Jeff Lloyd
Form: 702224
Desperately unlucky to not have won this campaign, but those efforts came at midweek and in weak Saturday-grade races. It has looked a little one-paced throughout the campaign and although it showed plenty of ability as a youngster, the zip has disappeared and it shouldn’t play any part in the finish.
Drawing barrier 15 will only make its job that much harder. Prepared to risk at the odds.
14. Beatniks – $67
Trainer: Steven O’Dea
Jockey: Paul Hammersley
Form: x12636
Flashed home late in the Dane Ripper which gives it some chance in this, but it would need to produce a career-best performance just to feature in the money.
It goes best at this distance which is encouraging and it can handle both dry and wet tracks. The five-year-old mare tries hard in most of its races, but it should be targeting something easier and we will wait till it does.
15. Blueberry Hill – $21
Trainer: Liam Birchley
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Form: x68781
Turned its form around last start in the Gai Waterhouse Classic where it won impressively. The Liam Birchley-trained filly gets a nice weight of 55.5kg and Byrne is more than capable of pulling off the upset win, but it would need a rain-affected track and it’s unlikely to get one.
We used to be a fan and it did think it would run well last start, but it’s stepping up to another level and it should struggle.
16. My Poppette – $21
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
Jockey: Chris Parnham
Form: 17×340
Looked good when beating Bengal Cat at Moonee Valley five starts back, but its form since hasn’t been impressive and we think it should be paying at least $41.
Drawing barrier 16 will make it tough and it shouldn’t play a part in the finish. Punters should be getting better odds so if you like My Poppette, wait till start time where its price should have drifted.