It is Australian Cup Day on Saturday afternoon as the action returns to Flemington for the final Group 1 of the 2022/23 racing season in Victoria. Despite plenty of rain on Thursday morning, we expect to be racing on a Good 4, even though the track has come up as a Soft 5. Following plenty of racing at the track in recent weeks, the rail comes out 8m the entire circuit; however, we expect every runner to get their chance if good enough. Racing from Flemington gets underway at 12:25pm AEDT.
Keep reading for our free race-by-race preview and quaddie selections
Race 1: Mares Handicap (1100m)
A field of 10 mares are set to do battle down the Flemington straight and first-up off a five-month spell, Veranskova looks one of the better bets of the day on Saturday. The Cindy Alderson-trained mare was nothing short of impressive in stronger races last campaign and considering this looks to be an easier assignment that what she is used to in recent times, with just 54kg on her back, she looks the one to beat. She gets 6kg off the class horse in the race in Seradess and considering there looks to be plenty of pace to burn in this 1100m scamper, the race looks perfectly set up for Veranskova. Look for Daniel Moor to stalk the speed aboard this classy commodity and with a sharp turn of foot, Veranskova should prove too hard to hold out and get us off to a winning note on Saturday.
Race 2: Group 3 Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (1200m)
Hell Queen got her easy kill for a maiden win out of the way at Bendigo on March 9 and looks primed for Stakes success when she returns to Flemington on the weekend. The Ben Brisbourne-trained filly chased home the likes of Charm Stone and Empress Of Wonder in Group 3 company during the Melbourne Cup Carnival and returned with a narrow defeat to Maharba in the Talindert Stakes to suggest she will be hard to beat on the weekend. With Amazonian Lass expected to be the key speed influence drawn to her outside, we expect Blake Shinn will have his filly stalking the race favourite throughout. With a sharp turn of foot, we anticipate Hell Queen will prove too smart for her rivals and gain a deserved Group 3 win.
Races do not come much harder than this 2000m event and it is justified as online bookmakers have quoted the favourite Summerbeel at $4.60. We are opting to side with the Ben & JD Hayes-trained Independent Road who needs to turn the tables Sparkle who he was beaten by 1.4 lengths when they last met. However, with Laura Lafferty on board claim 3kg, he goes around with just 56kg and looks well-weighted compared to his rivals. The six-year-old gelding looks to lob in the one-one throughout and if he brings his best, then he may just break a winless drought that stretches back almost two years.
On The Lead did what he always does last time out in a similar field, got back in the field and flashed home late to finish a long neck off Kallos on March 4. He meets Kallos once again much better at the weights and with a 3.5kg advantage, we expect the Richard & Will Freedman-trained sprinter to turn the tables on his rival. Staying at the 1000m this deep into a campaign looks ideal, especially considering he has three wins and four minor placings at the trip. There looks to be much more speed in this race and if On The Lead is anywhere near his best, he should be powering home late and giving his rivals a beating.
Win and you are in to the 2023 Melbourne Cup, that is what is on offer for the winner of the Listed Roy Higgins on Saturday afternoon. There is without a doubt that Chris Waller has set Soulcombe for this race as his way to win himself into the Melbourne Cup. The way he won at the track and trip in the Group 3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes in last year’s Cup Carnival put the writing on the wall for potential Cup success in 2023 and despite his poor showings to begin his campaign, he gets his chance to shine on Saturday. This is the first time since that 2.25 length triumph that he returns to racing the “Melbourne way” and if Soulcombe is anywhere near his best, he is clearly the classy conveyance in the field and looks a clear on top selection in this year’s Roy Higgins.
There looks to be two genuine winning chances in the Listed Sunlight Classic, either What You Need or Benedetta. Benedetta is accepted to go around in the Group 1 William Reid Stakes on Friday night, but if she comes to Flemington, we expect she will get the better of her key rival. Her win in the Inglis Sprint was simply breathtaking when giving her rivals a start and a deadset smashing when putting three-lengths on her closest rival. The slight query on Saturday is drawing barrier one down the straight, but we expect her genuine class and untapped talent to overcome that issue and produce another stunning victory. She is currently $3.20 with online betting sites and if Benedetta brings anything like she did last time out, then she has what it takes to get the better of What You Need. (Note: If Benedetta goes to the William Reid, What You Need should give the rest of this field a galloping lesson.)
The time-honoured Group 1 Australian Cup headlines the action at HQ on Saturday and a capacity field of 16 horses are on the hunt for Group 1 glory. Cascadian ($3.60) is looking to secure his third win at the highest level, as is Mo’unga ($7.50). Whilst Nonconformist ($8) and Right You Are ($8.50) look to solidify themselves as genuine weight-for-age horses.
We are getting a ludicrous price about Pinstriped on Saturday, because with the withdrawal of Inundation, he simply looks a class above his rivals in the penultimate race of the day. He has a win and a second from two starts at the Flemington 1400m, including a win in the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes and should be building on that record here. He gains the services of the in-form Blake Shinn which looks to be a massive addition and if he can grab a tow into the race from the rear of the field, he looks a clear best bet of the day. He has a strong turn of foot and second-up at 1400m looks to be the recipe for success for Pinstriped.
If there has ever been a ‘field’ leg for the quaddie it is the final race at Flemington on Saturday. With it being $6 the field, there looks to be chances aplenty in this 1200m sprint, but we have sided with the in-form Bellinger. The five-year-old gelding was has strung together two nice wins at Morphettville at its last two starts and got the better of subsequent winner Chicago Storm in smart fashion. This may be a touch harder than those events, but with 57kg on his back following Laura Lafferty’s 3kg claim, Bellinger looks well placed to bring up a third straight win and can salute at a nice price.