The Follow Files: Oaks contender emerges at Morphettville

HorseBetting blackbook tips

Day 2 of The Championships provided a real ‘grand final’ type of vibe with loads of quality racing. The team at The Follow Files won’t be adding any horses from Randwick into our blackbook this week; instead we will be looking to find a few future winners from Caulfield, Doomben and Morphettville, as the latter two have their carnivals just around the corner.

Caulfield | Track: Good 4 | Rail: True Entire Course

Race 8: Benchmark 84 Handicap (1600m) | Time: 1:38.10

  • Horse to follow: AIN’TNODEELDUN (4th)

One horse who has always shown plenty of ability is the Anthony & Sam Freedman-trained AIN’TNODEELDUN. The four-year-old son of Dundeel has won three of his nine races – two of which were at Listed level – and he now looks ready to win again. After missing the 2021 calendar year due to injury, the entire resumed at Flemington on March 12 behind Kissonallforcheeks in the Group 3 Shaftesbury Avenue Stakes (1400m), before dropping back in grade on Saturday to Benchmark 84 company over the mile. Despite being well found in betting, he looked to our eye that he needed the run again, so we were pleased to see him working home well.

When to bet: We expect to see Ain’tnodeeldun either stay at the mile or step out to 1800m next start, where he will have the fitness on his side to be able to win. Whether or not the classy animal has a big prep remains to be seen; the Queensland is an option, or else they might choose to be soft on him and set him up for the Melbourne Spring Carnival.

Doomben | Track: Soft 5 | Rail: +3m Entire Course

Race 1: Two-Year-Old Handicap (1200m) | Time: 1:10:49

  • Horse to follow: NETTUNO (1st)

When horses win by a combined nine lengths in their first two career starts at an average starting price of $1.50, they don’t exactly scream “back me next start” from a value perspective. In saying that, the Tony Gollan-trained two-year-old NETTUNO is only going to get better. The son of I Am Invincible has led all of the way in his two career starts, winning by 4.5 lengths on both occasions. In this one he had to do a bit of work early on before finding the front and coasting through his gears to win by an absolute space under a tight hold. He also ran a time that was three-quarters of a second faster than the Benchmark 72 which featured Go Wandji. CLASS, CLASS and MORE CLASS!

When to bet: Gollan is one of the best trainers in Brisbane, so we can rest assured that this colt will be well managed, but we really do think he can be a major player throughout the Brisbane Winter Carnival in races like the BRC Sires’ Produce Stakes, Champagne Classic and Group 1 J.J. Atkins.

Race 6: Benchmark 78 Handicap (1350m) | Time: 1:20.11

  • Horse to follow: MONTEZ (4th)

Despite being a touch slower than the Open Handicap later on in the program, this Benchmark 78 served up one of the better losing runs of the day. MONTEZ drifted in betting as if he had lost a leg in the mounting yard ($9 to $19), and while the punters did get it right on this occasion, they nearly had egg on their faces. The Maryann Brosnan-trained galloper resumed over 1350m, which was never really going to be his go, but after being ridden out the back of the field, he was one of a only a handful of horses to make ground all day as he stormed home into fourth under Jaden Lloyd, going down by just two lengths.

When to bet: Montez tends to do his best racing over a touch further, with arguably his two best wins coming over 1600m at Doomben. He does have a pretty average second-up record, so be careful diving into him next start, with his third-up run likely to be where he peaks this time in. We can follow him throughout this preparation.

Morphettville | Track: Good 4 | Rail: +8m 1200m – Winning Post, +6m Remainder Sectional 610m

Race 7: Group 3 Auraria Stakes (1800m) | Time: 1:51.69

  • Horse to follow: MORRISSETTE (7th)

In one of the Group 3 features at Morphettville on Saturday, the Simon Ryan-trained MORRISSETTE caught our eye late as she worked home into seventh, just three lengths behind My Whisper, Bon’s A Pearla and Mac ‘N’ Cheese in the Auraria Stakes over 1800m. The time the winners ran was quicker than the boys in the Port Adelaide Guineas, so that is worth noting also. At the top of the straight, Kayla Crowther went for a run which closed pretty quickly thanks to the eventual winner shooting through, while Mac ‘N’ Cheese then kept her in a pocket for a bit longer, which put an end to her winning chances. She broke her maiden status the start prior when first-up over 1400m at Warrnambool, which came after her VRC Oaks campaign in the spring when sixth as a $15 chance.

When to bet: She is likely to have the Group 1 Australasian Oaks (2000m) as her target race on April 30. Connections will likely then push on towards either the SA Fillies’ Classic (2500m) against her own sex, or they could look to run her in the South Australian Derby (2500m) on May 14. She looks to be a pretty dour stayer, so we think she can be competitive in either of those races.

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