Melbourne Cup Day betting tips & quaddie | November 2, 2021

Melbourne Cup betting

What Melbourne Cup Day 2021
Where Flemington Racecourse – 448 Epsom Rd, Flemington VIC 3031
When Tuesday, November 2, 2021
First Race 10:45am AEDT
Feature Race Melbourne Cup – Race 7

A bumper 10-part card is scheduled at Flemington on Tuesday afternoon for Melbourne Cup Day, and HorseBetting’s Victorian horse racing analyst presents his race-by-race preview, best bets and free quaddie numbers for Australia’s most famous race-day. The track is rated a Good 4, the rail is out 2m for the entire track, and the meeting is scheduled to start at 10:45am AEDT.

Race 1: Maribyrnong Plate (1200m)

The Maribyrnong Plate is the traditional opener of Melbourne Cup Day, and this year a field of 11 two-year-olds will compete over 1000m at Group 3 level. Having been pipped on the line on debut in the Listed Debutant Stakes at Caulfield on October 9, the Peter Moody-trained Brereton looks the one to be with on exposed form. Having settled up on speed, the Zoustar colt looked to be the winner on the line but was surprisingly outbobbed. He draws barrier two, which is an advantage for two-year-olds as they can follow the rail down the straight. If he brings anything close to what he showed on debut, he should break his maiden here, although it is a race to bet in with little confidence.

Selections: 1-3-2-4

Race 2: BM96 Handicap (2800m)

It may not be up to the calibre of the Melbourne Cup, but this 2800m event for the stayers looks to be a hotly contested affair. We have settled on the Chris Waller-trained Accountability, who will be hoping he can turn the tables on Wil John from the last time they met at Caulfield on October 13. His rival was off and gone with the prize early on, and despite Accountability pegging the margin back to 1.1 lengths, Wil John had too big of a break to run down. Look for Damien Oliver to have him settled close to the rear, but in the field of 12 he should not be too far from the speed. With a well-timed steer, he should prove too hard to hold out.

Selections: 10-8-13-3

Race 3: Greys BM90 Handicap (1400m)

The traditional 1400m race for grey horses is always a popular event, and this year it looks to be down to two main chances. We expect Housay to be a touch too good for Excelman, with the latter no doubt wanting further than the 1400m. The Shea Eden-trained Housay has three wins from seven starts and has only missed the top three on one occasion. The slight concern is how sharp Housay will be, having not been at the races since January 16. With a win to his name when first-up from a spell already, we anticipate Housay will kick off this campaign with a nice win here.

Selections: 3-4-1-7

Race 4: Melbourne Cup Day Plate (1800m)

The Listed Melbourne Cup Day Plate has attracted a strong field of nine, but we are hoping last-start Sale Cup winner Milton Park can bring up consecutive wins. The four-year-old son of Written Tycoon ran his rivals ragged at Sale on October 24 and held a two-length margin through the line. Jarrod Fry retains the ride, which is an added bonus, and in a race where he look to gain an uncontested lead, he should prove too hard to run down, especially with just 54.5kg on his back.

Selections: 3-6-7-8

Best ValueRace 4 – Milton Park (#3) $9 with Bet365

Race 5: BM90 Handicap (1400m)

Our best bet of the day comes up at the halfway point, as we think the Tony & Calvin McEvoy-trained Frankie Pinot can bounce back into the winner’s stall. We were with the Your Song gelding at Caulfield on October 13, but he got too far out of his ground that day and could not peg back the margin to Agreeable and Imperial Lad despite flying home late. He eventually went down by a half-length, and with the long straight that Flemington possesses, Kerrin McEvoy should have him poised to strike at the 300m mark before finishing right over the top of his rivals.

Selections: 11-4-2-9

Best BetRace 5 – Frankie Pinot (#11) $3.70 with Sportsbet

Race 6: Super Vobis 3YO Plate (1000m)

Profiteer has plenty of speed and looks to be the perfect 1000m straight-course sprinter. He gets to Flemington for just the second time in his career, and if he repeats his debut performance that saw him win by 2.5 lengths, he should be too quick for this lot. The market has it down to between two horses, he and Enthaar, but considering Profiteer is coming to this third-up from a spell, he should be simply too hard to run down. Despite being beaten by 3.75 lengths to Extreme Warrior last time out, he still managed to put three lengths of his own on Minsk Moment back in third during the Blue Sapphire Stakes. The in-form James McDonald hops on board, and we expect JMac will let a fast horse be a fast horse and run them ragged.

Selections: 1-4-8-9

Next BestRace 6 – Profiteer (#1) $2.50 with Bet365

Race 7: Melbourne Cup (3200m)

The race that stops a nation is finally here, and with a full field of 24 set to compete for the $7.75 million on offer, it is set to be one of the most-watched events of 2021. Following his five-length victory in the Caulfield Cup, the Peter Moody-trained Incentivise is one of the shortest pre-post Melbourne Cup favourites in history, paying a mere $2.30 with online bookmakers.

See our runner-by-runner preview and $100 betting strategy for the 2021 Melbourne Cup here.

Race 8: Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400m)

Agreeable managed to get the better of our best bet, Frankie Pinot, on October 13, and we think the Anthony & Sam Freedman runner can handle the step into Group 3 company. He chased home Flying Artist two starts back, and that horse came out and put in a massive performance during Saturday’s Group 1 Cantala Stakes, so the form around him is sound. From barrier 12, Jye McNeil will need a little bit of luck early on so they do not get trapped three wide without cover, but if Agreeable can be settled in the one-one on the back of a genuine speed, he is the one at a nice price we want to be with.

Selections: 6-11-10-1

Race 9: TAB Trophy Stakes (1800m)

Spirit Of Gaylard looks to be a horse on the up and has some nice races in his sights for the autumn. Having been the fourth emergency in Saturday’s Victoria Derby, Mitch Freedman clearly has a high opinion of him, but the Group 1 seemingly came around a touch too early in his career. He was the eye-catching run in the Moonee Valley Vase, where he was beaten 2.55 lengths after striking trouble at a crucial time. If he gets even luck in running this time round, the long straight of Flemington should give him ample space and time to build through the gears. Barring any disasters, Jordan Childs will have him roaring past his rivals in the final 100m.

Selections: 6-14-4-5

Race 10: MSS Security Sprint (1200m)

The final race of the day looks to be a genuine dartboard job as usual. We have settled on the Nick Ryan-trained Express Pass, who was running on steadily in the Moir Stakes last time out and drops right back in grade to Listed level. He was a dominant winner of the Chautauqua Stakes three starts back, before finishing off nicely in Bobbie Lewis Quality at his next start. Those form lines look to be worth following, and if he is able to gain clear air over the final 300m, Rhys McLeod will make sure he is fighting out the finish.

Selections: 5-13-10-12

Saturday quaddie tips for Melbourne Cup 2021

Flemington quadrella selections
Leg 1: 2
Leg 2: 6-10-11
Leg 3: 4-5-6-14
Leg 4: 4-5-6-8-10-12-13-14
Investment: $96 for 100%

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