2021 Melbourne Cup runner-by-runner preview & betting tips
| What | 2021 Melbourne Cup |
| Where | Flemington Racecourse – 448 Epsom Rd, Flemington VIC 3031 |
| When | Tuesday, November 2, 2021 | 3pm AEDT | Race 7 |
| Prizemoney | $7,750,000 |
| Distance | 3200m |
| Status | Group 1 |
| Race Conditions | Handicap | Three-Year-Olds & Up |
| 2020 Winner | Twilight Payment (12) | Trainer: Joseph O’Brien | Jockey: Jye McNeil (52.5kg) |
| Watch Live | |
The Melbourne Cup is one the biggest races in the world, and HorseBetting’s Victorian form analyst presents his runner-by-runner preview, top selections and betting strategy for $7,750,000 two-mile handicap. Caulfield Cup winner Incentivise is a dominant $2.30 favourite, whilst import Spanish Mission is an $8 chance to take out the race that stops a nation.
Twilight Payment
- Age: 9YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Teofilo
- Dam: Dream On Buddy
1. Twilight Payment (2)
9yo G | T: Joseph O’Brien | J: Jye McNeil (58kg)
The 2020 Melbourne Cup winner is back to defend his crown 12 months on and is arguably in good enough form to be competitive here. Twilight Payment seemingly struggled upon his return to the UK initially, but with a win to his name in the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes and second-place finish behind Sonnyboyliston at his last start on September 12, he will be here in tip top shape and could prove hard for race-favourite Incentivise to run down. From barrier 2, Jye McNeil will want to have the reigning champ settled in the first four, especially if the likes of Knights Order, Incentivise and Delphi want to roll forward and contest for the lead. He needs to lug 2.5kg more this year, with 58kg on his back, but if he can handle the big weight who is to say he cannot cause a boilover?
Incentivise
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Stallion
- Sire: Savabeel
- Dam: The Glitzy One
2. Incentivise (16)
5yo G | T: Peter Moody | J: Brett Prebble (57kg)
The 2021 Melbourne Cup favourite Incentivise could not be in better condition heading into his grand final. The Peter Moody-trained runner was a dominant winner in the Caulfield Cup at his last start adding a third Group 1 to his name following his successes in the Makybe Diva Stakes and Turnbull Stakes earlier in the spring. He draws barrier 16 here on Tuesday and much like how he drew out wide in the Caulfield Cup, we expect Brett Prebble to take his time in finding Incentivise a nice spot upon settling. With even luck he gains cover in the moving line and as he showed last time out, he will look to catch his rivals napping at the 600m mark and go for home, where he will ultimately prove too good and continue the great story of Incentivise.
Spanish Mission
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Stallion
- Sire: Noble Mission
- Dam: Street Cry
3. Spanish Mission (14)
6yo H | T: Andrew Balding | J: Craig Williams (57kg)
Usually, the Melbourne Cup is littered with international runners, but Spanish Mission will be one of very few challengers from abroad this year. He brings some top-tier form with him across from the UK, having run the great Stradivarius to within a half-head in his last start in the Lonsdale Cup. He has been aimed towards this race for the best part of 12 months, and with Craig Williams on board, who is to say Spanish Mission cannot take out Australia’s most famous race? Having won at 3600m in his career, the 3200m will not be an issue, it will be whether he is sharp enough following a weekend where he was under constant scrutinity from Racing Victoria vets.
Verry Elleegant
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Brown
- Sex: Mare
- Sire: Zed
- Dam: Opulence
4. Verry Elleegant (19)
6yo M | T: Chris Waller | J: James McDonald (57kg)
Verry Elleegant comes off a massive run in the Cox Plate following a poor showing in the Turnbull Stakes. She’s arguably one of Australia’s best horses still in work, in the hands of one of our best trainers in Chris Waller, so she has to be a genuine top three hope. Despite not troubling State Of Rest or Anamoe in the finish of Cox Plate, we expect the mare to be at peak form heading into her second Melbourne Cup. She came seventh in this race last year and if she is at her very best, there is no reason why she cannot trouble the likes of Incentivise and Spanish Mission.
Explosive Jack
- Age: 4YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Stallion
- Sire: Jakkalberry
- Dam: Extra Explosive
5. Explosive Jack (4)
4yo H | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: John Allen (54kg)
Having won the Tasmanian Derby, ATC Derby and SA Derby as a three-year-old, Explosive Jack looked to have the world at his feet. However, the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained runner has failed to set the racing world alight in his three runs back this campaign and is coming off a rather poor performance in the Caulfield Cup. He retains the services of recent Cox Plate winner John Allen, but in a race where he is coming up against genuine Group 1 stars, he may struggle to finish in the top six.
The Chosen One
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Stallion
- Sire: Savabeel
- Dam: The Glitzy One
6. The Chosen One (5)
6yo H | T: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman | J: Damian Lane (57kg)
The six-year-old entire was not at his best when finishing 14th of 18 in the Caulfield Cup. He had run home with great intent in the Herbert Power Stakes the start before, but just simply didn’t measure up in the Caulfield Cup. He finished in this race last year, so we know he will handle the 3200m, but with a horse like Incentivise in the race, it is hard to see him as a winning chance in the race that stops the nation.
Delphi
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Stallion
- Sire: Galileo
- Dam: Bye Bye Birdie
7. Delphi (3)
5yo H | T: Anthony & Sam Freedman | J: Damien Oliver (54kg)
The Herbert Power Stakes winner from two starts back, Delphi, comes to the Melbourne Cup on the back of a disappointing effort in the Caulfield Cup. Having been sent around as the second favourite, he faded badly at the turn for home to finish 13th, beaten by 11-lengths. The Anthony & Sam Freedman stable are in top form so far this spring and with the great Damien Oliver on board, there is no doubt Delphi will run a big race on the first Tuesday in November.
Ocean Billy
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Chestnut
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Ocean Park
- Dam: Cool Storm
8. Ocean Billy (13)
6yo G | T: Chris Waller | J: Damien Thornton (53.5kg)
Ocean Billy, the Group 1 Auckland Cup winner, is set to have his first run in the Melbourne Cup this year — the first time over 3200m as well. He finished midfield in the Caulfield Cup when finishing ninth, beaten nine lengths to Incentivise in a run that showed he may struggle to compete with these.
Selino
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Champs Elysees
- Dam: Air Kiss
9. Selino (24)
6yo G | T: Chris Waller | J: Ron Stewart (53.5kg)
Selino was an impressive winner of the Sydney Cup earlier this year and is capable of springing a surprise on any given day. However, the Melbourne Cup is a completely different beast and the Chris Waller-trained son of Champs Elysees will need to overturn a last start 11.75-length defeat to Incentivise in the Caulfield Cup. You cannot rule out any Waller runner completely in Group 1 events, but this may be one of his biggest achievements if Selino can somehow win the Melbourne Cup, especially because he jumps from the widest barrier of 24.
Johnny Get Angry
- Age: 4YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Tavistock
- Dam: Luninova
10. Johnny Get Angry (22)
4yo G | T: Denis Pagan | J: Lachlan King (53kg)
How 12 months can change a horse’s fortunes. Since winning the 2020 VRC Derby, Johnny Get Angry has struggled to live up to the expectations that comes with being a Group 1 winner. His spring campaign so far has been nothing short of dismal, being beaten by an accumulative 64.45 lengths in four runs this spring and his fortunes do not look like changing anytime soon. Trainer Denis Pagan was known in the AFL for being able to lift his team for the big moments and moments do not come much bigger than the Melbourne Cup.
Knights Order
- Age: 7YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: So You Think
- Dam: Lamanka Lass
11. Knights Order (9)
7yo G | T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | J: Daniel Stackhouse (53kg)
Knights Order put the writing on the wall during the Brisbane Winter Carnival when taking out the Group 2 Brisbane Cup over 3200m in June. However, his spring campaign thus far has been nothing short of disappointing. In four starts this campaign, he has not finished closer than 4.15-lengths to the eventual winner and in the Hotham handicap was beaten convincingly by Great House by 5.85 lengths in his last run leading into the Melbourne Cup. It hard to see how he measures up in this.
Persan
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Brown
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Pierro
- Dam: Ofcourseican
12. Persan (11)
5yo G | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Luke Currie (53kg)
Persan has arguably been one of the most consistent stayers in Australia over the past 18 months and the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained runner is looking to build on his fifth-place finish in the 2020 Melbourne Cup. He was impressive when finishing third in the Caulfield Cup, but was beaten some 5.25 lengths by Incentivise. The step up to 3200m third-up is ideal and we expect a forward showing from Persan once again and at the price is one of the better roughies in the race.
Carif
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Brown
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: So You Think
- Dam: Norzita
13. Carif (8)
6yo G | T: Peter & Paul Snowden | J: Blaike McDougall (52.5kg)
The Peter & Paul Snowden-trained Carif is one of the rank outsiders in the 2021 Melbourne Cup field. Having won three races from 37 career starts, the son of So You Think is one of the least credentialed runners in the field, having not won a Group race in his career. He was last seen being beaten 12.81 lengths in the Listed City Tatts Cup at Randwick and we think he will struggle against this lot.
Master Of Wine
- Age: 7YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Maxios
- Dam: Magma
14. Master Of Wine (17)
7yo G | T: Team Hawkes | J: Fred Kersley (52.5kg)
Master Of Wine has long been known as a Group 1 standard of horse; however, in 10 starts at the level he is yet to run a placing and is a frustrating runner to follow in a betting sense. He was well beaten last time out in the Caulfield Cup, but his start prior in The Bart Cummings when finishing in third place on the heels of Grand Promenade and Tralee Rose suggests he is capable of a big run in the 2021 Melbourne Cup. He is in the right stable with the Hawkes family and at a big price could be a trifecta/first four player.
Pondus
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Sea The Moon
- Dam: Diablerette
15. Pondus (1)
6yo G | T: Robert Hickmott | J: Rachel King (52.5kg)
Pondus has been a long range Melbourne Cup horse for the best part of 15 months. Having not made the final field in the 2020 Cup, he has made the 2021 final field and if he brings his best to Flemington, he is sure to run a nice race. With form behind the likes of Japan and Addeybb in his career, he clearly has the class behind him, but the question remains whether he is still at that level or has dropped off a peg or two.
Grand Promenade
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Champs Elysees
- Dam: Zamindar
16. Grand Promenade (21)
6yo G | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Kerrin McEvoy (52kg)
The rise of Grand Promenade into market contention for the 2021 Melbourne Cup has been overshadowed by the remarkable progression of Incentivise. Grand Promenade is live a chance of finishing in the top four of this year’s Melbourne Cup considering the lack of depth heading into the race. He claimed the golden ticket by winning The Bart Cummings at his last start, bringing his record to three wins in his past five races. While this is his first crack at Group 1 level, the booking of multiple Melbourne Cup-winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy further strengthens his case.
Miami Bound
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Mare
- Sire: Reliable Mare
- Dam: Arapaho Miss
17. Miami Bound (21)
5yo M | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Harry Coffey (52kg)
Miami Bound is one of those horses who took out a VRC Oaks as a three-year-old and since then has been lumped with a high rating and goes around in races such as the Melbourne Cup supremely out of her depth. She was last seen running fifth to Lunar Flare in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup beaten over five lengths and she has not tasted success in over 12 months. Connections will be hoping she can somehow improve on her 14th-place finish here and if she does, they can deem it a success.
Port Guillaume
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Le Havre
- Dam: Keira
18. Port Guillaume (21)
5yo G | T: Ben & JD Hayes | J: Harry Coffey (52kg)
Port Guillaume was acquired from France by Ben & JD Hayes in a bid to have him ready for a run in the Melbourne Cup, but has failed to reach some of the heights he go to in his home country. He has a win over Gold Trip last year who was suppose to be a genuine Cox Plate/Melbourne Cup contender this year, but this five-year-old son of Le Havre has struggled to go on with the job here in Australia. It is unlikely Port Guillaume gives the Hayes brothers their first Group 1 win as a training partnership.
She’s Ideel
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Mare
- Sire: Dundeel
- Dam: Ana’s Mail
19. She’s Ideel (20)
6yo M | T: Bjorn Baker | J: Craig Newitt (52kg)
The Bjorn Baker-trained She’s Ideel is a six-year-old mare on the rise in the staying ranks and managed to finish one length off Persan in third place in the Caulfield Cup. We are not saying she is an out and out winning chance but considering her effort in the Caulfield Cup she simply cannot be ruled out as a top three hope on Tuesday. If the rain comes, her chances increase dramatically having won four races from eight starts on rain-affected ground, but unfortunately for the Dundeel mare, we look set to be racing on firmer going this time out.
Future Score
- Age: 7YO
- Color: Black
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Cape Cross
- Dam: Theola
20. Future Score (15)
7yo G | T: Matt Cumani | J: Dean Yendall (51kg)
Future Score from the Matt Cumani yard is set to take the massive rise in grade when he steps out in the Melbourne Cup on the first Tuesday in November. He has seemingly been out of his grade in races like the Naturalism Stakes, Herbert Power Stakes and Moonee Valley Gold Cup this campaign. Future Score is set to go around as one of the biggest priced runners in Melbourne Cup history.
Tralee Rose
- Age: 5YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Mare
- Sire: Tavistock
- Dam: Star Of Tralee
21. Tralee Rose (12)
5yo M | T: Symon Wilde | J: Dean Holland (51kg)
Tralee Rose is a stayer on the way up and coming off a win in the Geelong Cup is set to go around as one of Incentivise’s main dangers in the Melbourne Cup. The Geelong Cup has quickly become a strong form reference for the race that stops the nation over the past couple of years with the likes of Prince Of Arran using it as their final run into a Melbourne Cup. She has two wins and two placings from four starts at Flemington showing that the long straight suits her want to build through the gears and hit the line with intent.
Floating Artist
- Age: 6YO
- Color: Bay
- Sex: Gelding
- Sire: Nathaniel
- Dam: Miss Kenton
22. Floating Artist (10)
6yo G | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Teo Nugent (50kg)
Floating Artist from the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace stable has arguably one of the better stayers in Victoria over the past couple of months, but has found himself in trouble during his runs in the Coongy Cup and then the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. He is in the best stable in terms of producing out and out stayers with Maher & Eustace and despite this being his first run at Group 1 level, he has shown with even luck that he can handle a field like this outside of Incentivise.
Great House
- Age: 5YO
- Color:Bay
- Sex:Gelding
- Sire:Galileo (IRE)
- Dam:Anja (IRE)
23. Great House (7)
5yo G | T: Chris Waller | J: Michael Dee (50kg)
Having run a tough race only on October 30 in the Hotham Handicap, unfortunately Great house will only have a three days’ rest to get ready for his toughest race to date. Although the five-year-old old gelding came fifth in the Caulfield Cup behind Melbourne Cup favourite Incentivise and Persan, he was still finishing in front of other Melbourne Cup horses. Jumping out of barrier seven Great House’s biggest threat will be getting stuck at the back of the pack and not finding the right opening to make his run down the Flemington straight.
Sir Lucan
- Age: 4YO
- Color:Bay
- Sex:Horse
- Sire:Camelot (GB)
- Dam:Sparrow (IRE)
24. Sir Lucan (18)
4yo C | T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | J: Glen Boss (50kg)
As we have seen in previous years, any horse is able to win the Melbourne Cup with the right run and the right jockey on their back. With veteran Glen Boss being known for riding Makybe Diva to three consecutive Melbourne Cups from 2003 to 2005 and being given the set weight of 50kg for the race, there will be every chance he can claim his fourth Melbourne Cup with Sir Lucan. With Sir Lucan’s current form and being his first proper race in Australia and coming up against 23 other Melbourne Cup horses it will be a tough time for him to be finishing the race in first. Punters seem to think the same opening at $21 odds with the online bookmakers and slowly drifting out as the hours go on.
2021 Melbourne Cup betting tips
The race that stops the nation, the 2021 Melbourne looks to be a formality for the Peter Moody-trained Incentivise. He was as dominant a winner as you could see in the Caulfield Cup and the success story looks set to continue here. Brett Prebble will need to be patient from barrier 16 to slot in up on speed with cover and similar to the Caulfield Cup, we expect Incentivise to be pulling away from the likes of Tralee Rose and Persan.
Selections: 2-21-12-1
| $100 betting strategy | |
|---|---|
| $100 win | Incentivise |