Lees believes Lucia’s best chance will come in the Cox Plate
TRAINER Kris Lees will line up current second favourite Lucia Valentina ($5.50 at Sportsbet) in the Group 2 Warwick Stakes at at Randwick on Saturday, but while he isn’t conceding defeat to champion Winx, he believes Lucia Valentina’s best chance will come in the Cox Plate.
The Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner is showing positive signs leading into the Warwick Stakes and there looks to be only one horse that can beat the mare, but that happens to be 2015 Cox Plate winner Winx which holds a firm grip on the market at $1.40.
Lees admits that Winx could well be unbeatable this spring, but says Lucia Valentina’s best chance of toppling the star will come in the Cox Plate as opposed to this Saturday. The lack of pace expected in the Warwick Stakes, which without Winx and Lucia Valentina could be confused for a Caulfield Cup, is concerning Lees and when asked if Lucia Valentina could beat Winx, he replied honestly.
“Probably not at 1400m in a race where there’s probably no tempo and Winx is so adaptable and can be put anywhere, where Lucia is more one-dimensional and she will be quiet and strong late,” Lee said.
“She races well first up but they’ve probably been in bigger fields with genuine tempos and they probably won’t go quick enough for her to be honest.”
Lees is confident about Lucia Valentina’s condition coming into its spring campaign and it’s currently a $17 chance at Sportsbet in the 2016 Cox Plate.
“She’s certainly bigger than what she was coming into the autumn because she’d been to Hong Kong late last year but I’d say she’s where she needs to be for her first-up run,” Lees said.
“It’s going to be a trot and canter which won’t suit her but everything I’ve seen at home and in her trials tell me she’ll run well.”
The only time Lucia Valentina has met Winx was when it finished eighth behind Winx in the Epsom Handicap. Lees isn’t sure whether the time is right for Lucia Valentina to turn the tables, but hopes he’s the one that can change the tide.
“If someone can knock her off I hope it’s me but I don’t think she has too many chinks in her armour,” Lee said. “I don’t know if she can be beaten (Winx), but I know my mare will be at her best when she gets to 2000m (in the Cox Plate).”
Stablemate Le Romain also resumes this Saturday in the Group 3 Show Quality. The Group 1 Randwick Guineas winner looks in good shape leading into the weekend and four-year-olds have won the last nine of 15 Show Quality races.
“I’m pretty happy with him, he’s in really good order,” Lees said. “His trials have been great. He’s come along really well.
“He’s got a good fresh up record and I think he’s made a good progression since we last saw him.
“Saturday’s naturally a test for him stepping outside the comfort of his own age group but it’s a lovely race for him to kick off life as a four-year-old.”
Warwick Stakes market:
Winx – $1.40 at CrownBet.com.au
Lucia Valentina – $5.50
Rebel Dane – $9
Dibayani – $10
Hartnell – $10
Vanbrugh – $17
Preferment – $34
Grand Marshal – $81
Who Shot Thebarman – $81