Is the current Melbourne Cup favourite overrated?
THE 2016 Melbourne Cup weights were released by Racing Victoria’s chief handicapper Greg Carpenter on Tuesday and the betting market changed significantly.
Recent Irish St Leger winner Wicklow Brave tumbled in the betting with Order Of St George drifting after being allotted top weight of 58kg and trainer Aidan O’Brien stating it would not line up if it was given a big weight.
Also firming in the market was Signoff ($17 at CrownBet.com.au), but are punters getting a fair price for this potentially overrated gelding?
Trainer Darren Weir will be looking to train back-to-back winners of the Melbourne Cup after Prince Of Penzance prevailed at odds of $101 last year, but bookmakers are suggesting stablemate Signoff is the better betting prospect, despite its biggest career win coming at only group three level.
The six-year-old son of Authorized started its career with bang by winning its first six from seven starts, but winning hasn’t come naturally since. It won the Group 3 Lexus Stakes in 2014 before subsequently running fourth in the 2014 Melbourne Cup behind Protectionist, but it has won only one race since which came at Morphettville against some very moderate stayers.
We’re not discounting its run for fourth in the Melbourne Cup as that was an incredible effort, but that came after a strong campaign which included a second placing behind Big Memory in the Group 2 Herbert Power and a third-placed finish behind Contributer in the David Jones Cup.
Signoff owns a handy record of eight wins from 20 starts, but only two of those wins came at stakes level and it could be well-past its best years. It has had two starts this campaign for an 11th fresh up at Morphettville in a listed race before running 13th in the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley.
It will improve over more ground and its best efforts have come over 2400m and beyond, but that’s only some consolation for punters prepared to take the $17 available.
Greg Carpenter has offered Signoff’s backers a lifeline, however, as it will carry only 53.5kg in the 2016 Melbourne Cup. Carpenter said he wasn’t surprised with its most recent efforts, but does believes its opportunity to win a Melbourne Cup is coming to an end.
“Until he gets over 2000m and beyond you are not going to see the best of him,” Carpenter said.
“What I will be looking for whether it’s Signoff, Tarzino or Tavago, is that once they get to 2000m, is pretty significant improvement.
“I personally think Signoff is an outstanding talent, but the window of his career is coming to an end and this is his year. Really his year was 2014 and they had a wonderful plan to get into the race and they executed it really well and he came up in fourth place.
“So this year, if he is going to be a Melbourne Cup winner or placegetter is his real window of opportunity because he is getting on in his career.”
Signoff carried only 51.5kg when it finished fourth in 2014 and it was in career-best form. It hasn’t quite come back the same horse and it will have to carry more weight against some talented local and international stayers.
If its form improves this season the $17 won’t last long, but in terms of betting into an all-in market it’s not great value and we’re prepared to risk it and look elsewhere.
Updated 2016 Melbourne Cup market
Top 30 market selections. For a full betting market, head to CrownBet.com.au*
Signoff – $17
Big Orange – $17
Curren Mirotic – $17
Exosphere – $21
Idaho – $21
Our Ivanhowe – $21
The United States – $21 at CrownBet
Wicklow Brave – $21 (better than $17 at Sportsbet)
Beautiful Romance – $26
Hartnell – $26
Housesofparliament – $26
Jameka – $26
Preferment – $26
Prince Of Penzance – $26
Scottish – $26
Tarzino – $26
Tavago – $26
Bersanti – $34
Bondi Beach – $34
Elite Army – $34
Erupt – $34
Hauraki – $34
Kinema – $34
Protectionist – $34
Sarrasin – $34
Set Square – $34
Sword Fighter – $34
Trip To Paris – $34
Almoonqith – $41
Aloft – $41