Favourites to follow and unfollow this Saturday

Favourites to back

EVERY week there are punters who blindly back under-valued short-priced favourites in Australia, so we’ve gone through the form to find the ones you should be following and those you shouldn’t.

We must reiterate the fact that just because a horse is a firm favourite, that does not mean it’s the best horse in the field. If every favourite won we’d all be rich, but picking out the contenders and the pretenders is a vital aspect to making money.

There are false favourites across the board at Randwick, Mornington and Gold Coast this Saturday, so here’s our tips for the best and worst favourites.

Neds bonus bet deal

Favourites to avoid backing this Saturday

Guard of Honour runs in Race 6 at Randwick as the current $2.75 favourite and that’s far too short for the inconsistent gelding.

The four-year-old was struggling to find its best form, so trainer Kris Lees went to Muswellbrook last start where he started as the $1.90 favourite, but scoring the win wasn’t an easy as expected.

He only narrowly defeated an average field and the last time he ran in the city was when finishing ninth behind Bonny O’Reilly.

Carrying 60.5kg isn’t going to help and although there are no superstars running against it, bookmakers are kidding with the $2.75. We’d need at least $4 to touch Guard of Honour this week and we suggest punters wait for a similar price.

randwick - Race 6

racing4research sprint

Class: bm85

Track Rating: 3

3:40pm
  • Track Conditions: FINE
  • Temperature: 29.5
  • Humidity: 57%
  • Wind Speed: 30.0
  • Wind Direction: NE

racing4research sprint

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1000m
Saturday 3:40pm
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Guard Of Honour
Hugh Bowman 60.5
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Fickle Folly
Robert Thompson 58.5
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Hard Romp
James Innes Jnr 58.0
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Burradoo
Jason Collett 56.0
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Wanna Get A What
Brenton Avdulla 54.5
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Don't Tease Me
Ms Rachel Hunt 54.0
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Zarhron
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My Maher
Jay Ford 53.0
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Alart
Andrew Adkins 53.0
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10  Loverboy Charlie
Blaike Mcdougall 53.0
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11  Great Choice
Ms Rachel King 53.0
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Fontein Ali lines up in Race 2 at Mornington and it’s clear that bookmakers struggled to install a clear favourite, but they settled with Fontein Ali, which hasn’t won in nine career starts.

The Clinton McDonald-trained five-year-old is coming off a second placing at Yarra Valley where she ran a moderate 1200m time and there are plenty of things going against it here.

The tricky barrier of eight will surely play a part and the $2.60 at Neds.com.au simply looks too short considering its race record.

mornington - Race 2

mornington auto group mdn

Class: mdn

12:30pm
  • Track Conditions: TBA

mornington auto group mdn

1500m
1500m
Saturday 12:30pm
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Fontein Ali
Chris Caserta 58.0
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Lady De Bathe
Regan Bayliss 58.0
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Matriarchal
Brad Rawiller 58.0
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Platinum Magic
Jamie Mott 58.0
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Return Flight
Shane Karlsson 58.0
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Trinket Chick
Ms Jessica Payne 58.0
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Garifullina
Ryan Maloney 56.5
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Value Abbey
Patrick Moloney 56.5
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Later on the Mornington card runs Kedleston, which was late scratched earlier in the week.

The Tony Vasil-trained gelding has yet to win from 11 starts, yet it continues to be well-backed with bookmakers and it’s turning into one of the most expensive horses to follow for punters.

Over the course of its career, Kedleson has paid low prices of $4.75, $4.25, $2.10, $2.75 and $4.25. Why? Because he continues to produce good enough runs to warrant attention at its next start, but we question the desire to win.

Given his form behind the likes of Catchy and Cao Cao as a two-year-old, we’d expect it to have won by now, but that’s not the case and we can’t follow it any longer.

mornington - Race 4

mornington car-tyre serv. mdn

Class: mdn

1:35pm
  • Track Conditions: TBA

mornington car-tyre serv.

1200m
1200m
Saturday 1:35pm
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Don't Test Me
Brandon Stockdale 58.5
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Mr Design
Chris Symons 58.5
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Phenomenal Spirit
Jake Noonan 58.5
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Coronation Glade
Daniel Stackhouse 57.0
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Esplanade
Michael Dee 57.0
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Grey Honor
Jamie Mott 57.0
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Kedleston
Chris Caserta 57.0
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Traminer
Ben Melham 57.0
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Amastryker
Damien Thornton 55.0
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10  Honey Esprit
Ryan Maloney 55.0
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Our attention moves to the Gold Coast where the unbeaten Bella Occhi lines up in the fifth race of the day.

We can’t deny the unbeaten form of the Ben Currie-trained filly by High Chaparral, but we simply can’t take the $3.90 against a much harder field and the barrier draw makes her almost unbackable.

Her combined winning margin of 11.9 lengths has been impressive at Toomwoomba and Ipswich, but she faces stiffer competition now and we don’t think she’ll be able to find cover from barrier 15. That could see her sitting three or four-wide throughout and that’s no place for a three-year-old filly to be.

gold coast - Race 5

follow @aquisfarm on facebook

Class: open

Track Rating: 4

3:52pm
  • Track Conditions: FINE
  • Temperature: 27.8
  • Humidity: 60%
  • Wind Speed: 15.0
  • Wind Direction: E

follow @aquisfarm on faceb

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Saturday 3:52pm
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Wudang Blade
Boris Thornton 59.0
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Bold Xavvi
Damian Browne 57.5
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Colosimo
Robbie Fradd 57.0
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Cruze
Brad Pengelly 56.5
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Dream Kisses
Paul Hammersley 56.5
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Bat A Kat
Jeff Lloyd 56.0
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Luna Missile
Jim Byrne 55.0
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Zukaz
L Cassidy 55.0
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Bella Occhi
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10  Basara
Matthew Mcgillivray 54.0
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11  Keep Your Roses
Ron Stewart 54.0
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12  Trommelschlagen
Ron Stewart 54.0
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13  Susurri
Ric Mcmahon 54.0
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14  Rhythm Of Light
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