Emirates Stakes runner-by-runner betting guide and free tips
THE Emirates Stakes (formerly the Mackinnon Stakes) is the feature race on the final day of the Melbourne spring carnival and we have a runner-by-runner guide with free tips.
The Group 1 Emirates Stakes is worth $2 million and is run over 2000m at Flemington this Saturday. It has attracted a top quality field of local and international hopes and the bookmakers have released an even market for the feature.
The international hopes include Vadamos for Andre Fabre and Scottish for Charlie Appleby. Both horses have competed well in Australia this spring and are hoping to leave on a high.
Plenty of local chances as well, which includes The United States, Hauraki, Seaburge and newly-imported stayer Endless Drama for Chris Waller.
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2016 Emirates Stakes betting market
1. Happy Trails – $61
2. Hauraki – $11
3. The United States – $4
4. Happy Clapper – $21
5. Vadamos – $4.60
6. Awesome Rock – $21
7. Scottish – $5
8. Endless Drama – $13
9. Palentino – $12
10. Vanbrugh – $20
11. Tivaci – $51
12. Good Standing – $13
13. Seaburge – $15
The bookmakers and the punters can’t decide on a firm Emirates Stakes favourite. The United States is currently the top elect at $4, but it has drifted from $3.90 and both Vadamos and Scottish have also drifted out over the last couple of days.
There hasn’t been any market moves on any other runner, so the market is just evening out currently.
“This is probably the closest Group one of the carnival and our punters think there’s every chance Lloyd Williams will be adding to his Cup win,” Sportsbet’s Will Byrne said.
Emirates Stakes runner-by-runner betting guide
1. Happy Trails – $61
Trainer: Paul Beshara
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Form: 75×850
Barrier: 8
Many punters thought the Cox Plate run would be its last, but the nine-year-old is sticking around despite finishing last.
Its run for fifth in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes indicated that it was back to its best form and the conditions in the Cox Plate weren’t to suit.
We’ve seen some horses out of the Cox Plate not bounce back from the tough run and we think this is a bit too tough for the old-timer.
2. Hauraki – $11
Trainer: John O’Shea
Jockey: James McDonald
Form: 2×1218
Barrier: 1
Hauraki’s run to win the Group 1 Epsom Handicap was one of the best performances we’ve seen this year and although it didn’t fire in the Cox Plate last start, it will appreciate running at Flemington.
The five-year-old has drawn the inside, which probably isn’t ideal, but the big Flemington track will give it time to fully wind up.
It also has the ability to sit close to the pace, like it did when winning the Tramway Stakes at Randwick, and the firm surface is another positive. It has had 15 starts on a good track for four wins and eight placings, so don’t discount here at nice each way odds.
We’re expecting the $11 at CrownBet to firm in a touch.
3. The United States – $4
Trainer: Robert Hickmott
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Form: 12×614
Barrier: 11
It wouldn’t be wise to rule out any Lloyd Williams-owned runner at the moment and with the way Kerrin McEvoy is riding, The United States looks a top chance.
The connections decided to bypass the Melbourne Cup this year which looked a wise decision and its form this campaign has been strong. It won the Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley in October when beating Lidari by a length before running fourth in the Cantala Stakes behind Le Romain.
Stepping up to 2000m holds no fears. It won the Ranvet over this distance before backing that up with a second placing in the Queen Elizabeth over the same distance. The 2000m is ideal and it has a great chance to pick up its first win at Flemington.
Not a whole lot of market confidence at $4 with Sportsbet after drawing barrier 11, but expect it to settle off the pace and work into the race nicely.
4. Happy Clapper – $21
Trainer: Patrick Webster
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Form: 3×5646
Barrier: 13
Happy Clapper just isn’t the same horse it was in the autumn. The six-year-old finished third in the Queen Elizabeth behind Lucia Valentina and The United Stakes, but its best finish in four runs since was a fourth in the Epsom Handicap.
It finished sixth in the Cox Plate which wasn’t a complete disaster, but it’s having its first start at Flemington and that won’t make this any easier. We’d prefer to see back during the autumn where the races are slightly easier to win.
It will attract some interest at the $21, but we’d need to see improvement to have any confidence.
5. Vadamos – $4.60
Trainer: Andre Fabre
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Form: 141214
Barrier: 7
French import which brought winning form into Australia before running a gallant fourth in the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley.
The six-year-old son of Monsun did a lot of work in the Cox Plate and battled on well – beaten only by Winx, Hartnell and Yankee Rose. That’s strong form for this and we’ve already seen the European thoroughbreds dominate in Australia this season.
How it has come back after its last run is the big question, but there’s no denying this horse’s talent and it should figure in the finish at $4.60 with WilliamHill.com.au.
6. Awesome Rock – $21
Trainer: Leon and Troy Corstens
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Form: 01555
Barrier: 9
Awesome Rock ran as a $101 chance in the Cox Plate, but it beat half the field home and that should be commended. It didn’t have conditions to suit as its form on rain-affected tracks was poor and it still managed to battled away and beat some handy runners.
The five-year-old is often an overlooked runner, but it finished fifth in the Underwood, fifth in the Toorak Handicap and it won the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes to start the carnival.
It has winning form at Flemington and it’s well over the odds at $21 with Sportsbet.
7. Scottish – $5
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
Form: 31212
Barrier: 6
Scottish ran exceptionally well in the Caulfield Cup where it finished second and trainer Charlie Appleby is happy with its progress since that run.
“Scottish has continued to do well since the Caulfield Cup and we are happy to have him dropping back in distance, from 2400m to 2000m for the Emirates,” Appleby said.
The drop back in distance won’t worry the five-year-old as its connections weren’t confident that it was a genuine stayer. It is a three-time winner from four starts at this distance and we are respecting the international form this campaign.
It will go close and the $5 available at CrownBet is a value price.
8. Endless Drama – $13
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Craig Williams
Form: 2×3915
Barrier: 4
Endless Drama adds some spice to the race. The newly-imported stayer for Chris Waller was a handicap winner at Naas two starts back, but its form prior was the best betting guide to this.
The son of Lope De Vega ran second in the 2000 Guineas at Curragh behind Gleneagles and that’s world class form. Its form since has been fair and it has some astute owners in Qatar Bloodstock which had spring carnival success with Noble Protector and more recently with Arod which finished second in the L’Oreal Paris Stakes.
It’s currently a strong each way chance at $13 and late betting moves will indicate how forward it is here.
9. Palentino – $12
Trainer: Darren Weir
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Form: 45100
Barrier: 5
Palentino won the Makybe Diva Stakes just three starts back at Flemington when beating Black Heart Bart by a length, but it has been anything but classy since.
The four-year-old finished last in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap and that run was put down to it not handled right-handed tracks, but its run for 11th in the Cantala Stakes wasn’t any better.
There are some grave concerns about how well Palentino is travelling at the moment and despite its good record at Flemington, we can’t overlook its past two efforts.
10. Vanbrugh – $20
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Ben Melham
Form: 9×5491
Barrier: 10
$20 at William Hill is a good price considering Vanbrugh beat Tom Melbourne in the Coongy Stakes last start and Tom Melbourne has since run second behind Oceanographer in the Lexus Stakes.
The four-year-old is now a five-time winner from 17 starts and it has always been a confidence horse, so it could put back-to-back solid efforts together. This is harder than the Coongy and it rises up in weight to 58.5kg which could be its undoing.
Wouldn’t rule it out, but it’s not well suited by the weight scale.
11. Tivaci – $51
Trainer: Michael Moroney
Jockey: Patrick Moloney
Form: 612633
Barrier: 12
Sunshine Coast Guineas winner which hasn’t done much wrong since and is at attractive odds in this.
The High Chaparral horse finished second in the Bobbie Lewis before running sixth in the Rupert Clarke where it was running on well over the 1400m and its two subsequent runs have been full of merit.
It ran third behind He’s Our Rokki in the Toorak Handicap and third again in the Cantala Stakes, but it is another runner which rises drastically in weight. It hasn’t carried more than 53kg at its last four starts, but is being asked to lump around 58.5kg for this.
That will likely diminish its chances of winning, despite the great form.
12. Good Standing – $13
Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: Chad Schofield
Form: 95371
Barrier: 3
Good Standing was a quality winner of the Caulfield Classic last start when beating Rocketeer by just under a length, but this is another rise in class and only its weight brings it into contention.
The three-year-old finished seventh in the Caulfield Guineas and showed form at the three-year-old level behind Astern and Impending, but it hasn’t faced weight-for-age class yet and it should find this too tough.
The 51kg certainly helps and it gets 8kgs on current favourite The United States, but we rate it at least 10 lengths behind those runners so a win would surprise.
13. Seaburge – $15
Trainer: Hayes/Dabernig
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Form: 45428
Barrier: 2
Quality three-year-old which just didn’t fire last start in the Cantala Stakes after showing promising form in the Caulfield Guineas prior.
It is certainly a colt which could win at this level and the weight of 51kg helps. Dean Yendall has found his Group one-winning form and it could be the upset hope at $15 with Sportsbet if everything goes its way from barrier two.
Emirates Stakes betting tips
1st – Scottish ($5 at CrownBet)
2nd – Vadamos
3rd – The United Stakes
4th – Seaburge
We’re going with the international runners in the Emirates Stakes and although both Scottish and Vadamos would be better suited with some moisture in the surface, they have shown good form in Australia to date and the Emirates Stakes could be heading offshore.
We’ve included race-favourite The United States in for third as it hasn’t done anything this campaign to suggest it won’t run well here. It has star jockey Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle and we think it must be included in combinations.
We put in three-year-old Seaburge to run fourth at $15. It carries no weight coming into this and it has always promised plenty.