2017 Cox Plate betting tips, form and odds, Saturday October 28
CAN Winx join Kingston Town as a three-time winner of the Cox Plate? We’ll find out this Saturday as Moonee Valley hosts its biggest day of the year.
The Chris Waller-trained champion is seeking its third consecutive Cox Plate win and it appears to be a foregone conclusion at odds of $1.13, but there’s plenty of better betting opportunities across the 10-race card and we have free tips, form and odds for every race.
The Crystal Mile, Fillies Classic and Moonee Valley Gold Cup all feature on the bumper card and punters that enjoy some league and racing can get $2 for Australia and Winx to win at Neds.com.au this weekend.
Race 1 – Inglis Banner (1000m)
Setsuna was only narrowly run down in the Gimcrack and even though it’s never a good spring form guide, the run must be respected. The Waterhouse/Bott-trained filly wasn’t fancied with punters at $21, but it’s much shorter here at $4.20 and that price looks about right. It will likely head forward from the tricky barrier and the track should suit perfectly.
Miss Blumenthal is on debut for the Cummings’ stable and it has been well-backed since markets opened. The daughter of Into Mischief is an American-bred which finished second in a trial behind Sekura and that should stack up nicely here. Follow any more positive betting moves.
Race 1 tip: Setsuna to place ($1.80) at Neds.com.au
Race 2 – Bendigo Bank Handicap (955m)
Badajoz has found some consistent form after winning three of its last four starts. The James Cummings-trained five-year-old has defeated some handy types along the way and it has the ability to sit just off the speed and launch late. That should be achievable from barrier two and it handles all track conditions, so that’s not a worry for punters.
The form of Rock ‘n’ Gold must be respected and it’s coming off a stylish win. The Ellerton/Zahra-trained runner scored well at Cranbourne last start and it was flying home behind Super Too at Moonee Valley prior to that. That’s a good form guide and it has missed a placing in only two of its nine starts on this track. $4.80 on offer with bookmakers.
Race 2 tip: Badajoz to win ($3.20) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 3 – Phonewords Stakes (1200m)
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Trekking has promised plenty this campaign, but ultimately it has been disappointing. The Cummings-trained colt finished third behind Menari in the Rosebud and it was backed in to $3.80 to win the McNeil Stakes, but it managed only fourth. It has been running against hot fields, so we’ll cut it some slack, but it will need to show something here. It has held steady in the market at $4.40 since opening.
Ducimus won its first two career starts, including the Talindert Stakes at Flemington, but it hasn’t won since. The Mick Price-trained speedster finished second in the Pago Pago behind Single Bullet and it battled on well behind Jukebox in the Vain Stakes last start. We’ve opted to include Ducimus instead of Single Bullet because it’s drawn much better in barrier five.
Race 3 tip: Trekking to win ($4.40) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 4 – Crockett Stakes (1200m)
Unbeaten filly Demerara has attracted the attention of punters at $2.30, but this is easily its hardest task to date. The daughter of Commands won at Rosehill last start over Workdrinks, but that form didn’t stack up well. There’s no doubting its ability to gun and run, but it’s facing stakes-hardened professionals here and the odds are too short for our liking.
Sanadaat might be able to dictate the favourite from a better barrier and it has the pace to win here. The Lindsay Park-trained filly defeated the handy Crystal Spirit by 2.75 lengths at Sandown in August and it has since finished fourth in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes. It didn’t see out the 1400m last start so consider back in distance.
Race 4 tip: Sanadaat to place ($2.40) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 5 – Powerflo Solutions Stakes (1600m)
Invincibella has come of age this season by winning its last two starts. The Chris Waller-trained mare defeated the highly-talented Osborne Bulls at Rosehill before putting away race-rival Lubiton by a length last start. The adaptable mare is showing the form which saw it entered in the Queensland Oaks and it won’t have to do much work from the inside barrier. The only worry is whether Tim Clark will be able to get it in clear running room before the straight.
Oregon’s Day has to be the unluckiest horse when it comes to barrier draws. It has once again drawn the outside barrier having drawn barrier 13 and 15 at its last two starts. It will have no choice but to be dragged back to last as usual and rely on its turn-of-foot to win. It has been respected at $3.80 and it’s a chance if the pace is on up front.
Race 5 tip: Invincibella to win ($2.70) at Unibet.com.au
Race 6 – Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m)
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Big Duke was a gallant winner of the St Leger last start and it faces a similar field here. The Darren Weir-trained six-year-old had the perfect run in transit before hitting the lead halfway down the straight and holding off a fast-finishing Auvray. Having winning form at Moonee Valley can be key and Big Duke has had success there before. $2.10 is about as short as we’d take, but it should be the testing material again.
Auvray has been one of the most improved stayers this season. The Richard Freedman-trained import won at Rosehill over a field of five before running on stylishly behind Big Duke last start. It arguably should have won the St Leger and it could provide the favourite with a serious test. This will be its first run around The Valley which causes some concern.
Race 6 tip: Big Duke to win ($2.10) at Neds.com.au
Race 7 – Fillies Classic (1600m)
Banish comes into this with winning form after taking out a benchmark rating 70 at Cranbourne last start. The Cummings-trained three-year-old has won three of its seven starts to date and it has the ability to handle all track conditions. Its stakes credentials were tested when it ran sixth behind Shoals in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes, but it didn’t get the luck during the run and this is a much easier target for more prize money.
Mintha is still a maiden runner, but it’s the current $4.40 favourite. The three-year-old filly, to its credit, does have numerous placings at the top level. The Tony McEvoy-trained runner finished second in the Champagne Stakes at Moonee Valley behind Houtzen and it was running on well behind Aloisia in the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield. It still needs to show it can win a race, but the form doesn’t run deep here and it could take advantage.
Race 7 tip: Mintha to win ($4.40) at Unibet.com.au
Race 8 – Crystal Mile (1600m)
It’s Somewhat made late ground in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last start and it has a good record second up. The seven-year-old has won two of its eight starts second-up and we shouldn’t forget that it won the Doncaster Mile during The Championships in April. It faces an easier field on this occasion and it won’t have to spend a penny from the inside draw.
Religify has won 13 of its 31 starts and that commands respect. The Waller-trained seven-year-old has won four of its seven starts at this distance and it showed plenty of fight when running second at Caulfield last start. It likes to roll forward from the barriers which suits around The Valley, but it’s never raced there before. Hugh Bowman rides which is a positive and it has been well-backed at $5.
Race 8 tip: It’s Somewhat to win ($5) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 9 – Cox Plate (2040m)
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There’s little doubt that Winx will win its third consecutive Cox Plate against a field that doesn’t meet international group one standards, so instead we’ll look at the “Winx Out” market supplied by Neds.com.au.
It’s essentially picking which runner will finish second behind Winx and there’s some good value on offer. Gailo Chop is currently on the second line of betting at $4.80 after winning the Caulfield Stakes last start. The Weir-trained import held off Johannes Vermeer which was since run extremely well in the Caulfield Cup. It couldn’t match Humidor earlier this season, but this distance suits and it’s a stronger thoroughbred now.
Three-year-olds have a good record in the Cox Plate and Royal Symphony could be the best of the rest. The McEvoy-trained colt won its first three races in stellar fashion before running fourth in the Guineas Prelude and Caulfield Guineas. They were disappointing runs, but The Valley is going to suit its style perfectly as it likes to get into the race before the turn. The field of nine will make it easier for the swoopers and Royal Symphony looks a tasty bet at $4.80.
Race 9 tip: Royal Symphony to win (Winx Out) at $4.80 with Neds.com.au
Race 10 – Drummond Golf Vase (2040m)
Cliff’s Edge was a tough winner at Caulfield last start, but it had everything to suit up front. The three-year-old has won four from its eight starts and its chances significantly increase if it gets a soft lead up front. Moonee Valley is a track where the front-runners are suited by a stack’em style and Cliff’s Edge could take advantage of this at odds of $2.50.
Aloisia has to be respected after its Thousand Guineas win last start. The Aaron Purcell-trained filly showed a good turn-of-foot to upset Shoals and Alizee in the feature and it could continue that form here. It wasn’t a very taxing run so it won’t be tired and punters are coming for the talented filly.
Race 10 tip: Aliosia to win ($2.65) at Sportsbet.com.au