2016 Queensland Oaks odds, barrier draw and value runners
THE market has been released for the 2016 Queensland Oaks at Eagle Farm this Saturday. The group 1 over 2400m has a full field of 22 runners (four emergencies) and the bookmakers are siding with the runners which came out of The Roses at Doomben on May 21.
The Roses winner Kabede has shortened significantly in the market, but still remains a double-figure chance at Sportsbet.com.au which has the full market available now. The current favourite with is Falkenberg at $6 with Sportsbet and it was extremely unlucky last start. Punters will be hoping it jumps on terms this Saturday.
Bjorn Baker is looking for consecutive group 1 wins after Music Magnate won the Doomben 10,000 last Saturday and one-time favourite Imposing Lass is on the second line of betting at $8.
The New Zealand runners will likely have their say, but both have been given outside draws. The Roger James-trained Romantic Maid was a winner at midweek level last start and has drawn barrier 15. Provocative is the first emergency for Tony Pike, but will have to jump from barrier 20 if it makes the field.
2016 Queensland Oaks market and barrier draw:
1. Ambience (21) – $10
2. Chabaud (14) – $13
3. Kebede (5) – $10
4. Imposing Lass (10) – $8.00
5. Beluga Blue (7) – $51
6. Sebring Sally (19) – $16
7. Self Esteem (4) – $12 at Crownbet.com.au
8. Alaskan Rose (12) – $31
9. Queen Of Wands (8) – $51
10. Dawnie Perfect (22) – $8.50
11. Ashlee Marie (1) – $51
12. Falkenberg (3) – $6.00
13. Tap This (13) – $18
14. Tavi Bay (16) – $16
15. Romantic Maid (15) – $8.00
16. Dulverton (2) – $17
17. Zasorceress (17) – $31
18. Mount Omei (11) – $31
19e. Provocative (20) – $12
20e. Sahara Siren (18) – $31
21e. Meru (9) – $81
22e. Zafiki (6) – $61
2016 Queensland Oaks value runners
Punters can often find good value when betting in markets that have just opened. It’s not always best to wait till just before start time as the runners that are expected to do well often shorten in price.
The bigger punters like to get on early and then let the market adjust itself later in the week. In this year’s running of the Queensland Oaks there are multiple runners which will attract plenty of attention from punters.
The Matthew Dunn-trained Kabede won the key lead-up race and it has shown that it gets better with more distance. The well-bred daughter of Redoute’s Choice finished third in the Gold Coast Bracelet behind Imposing Lass where it was finishing off very well over the 1800m distance. It then went to Doomben and scored an impressive win in The Roses.
The rise up to 2400m looks ideal and the $10 quote will likely drop throughout the week.
Peter and Paul Snowden know how to target a horse and they line up Self Esteem at $12. The three-year-old filly finished fourth in The Roses and although it has won only two from 13 starts, it has experience over this distance when ninth in the Group 1 ATC Oaks and the soft track didn’t suit it on that occasion.
It comes into calculation because it will either set the pace or sit just off it. That’s always a positive in distance races as bad luck rarely comes into question. We’re not expecting a very hot tempo so consider Self Esteem for the win.
Kiwi runner Provocative needs a scratching to get into the field, but the $12 at Sportsbet won’t last long if it does start. Drawing barrier 20 isn’t ideal and it will have to drop back and find a good position, but over the 2400m it shouldn’t matter too much.
The Tony Pike-trained filly scored an easy win at Ipswich last start and avoided the major lead-up races in the city. The daughter of Zabeel is bred for an Oaks and it has form behind the likes of Derby favourite Mackintosh and New Zealand Derby winner Rangipo. That form will hold up against its own sex and Pike loves training winners this time of the year in Brisbane.