The Follow Files: Promising signs for unlucky losers at Caulfield
After a cracking Caulfield Guineas Day last Saturday, we now look forwards to Caulfield Cup Day as the track’s annual carnival comes to a close this weekend. Godolphin and James McDonald had a day out on Saturday with four winners to the ‘blue army’ and three individual winners for McDonald, including two Group 1 titles and a Group 2.
The Caulfield track started as a Soft 6, but we received an upgrade to a Soft 5 after race five. The first few races definitely played favourable to leaders and on-pace horses, but as the day went on, it was clear that you could win from just about anywhere. In our Follow Files this week, we have found some horses that you may have missed, or were unlucky, that we believe could be winning next start.
Caulfield Guineas Day – Saturday, October 8
Track rating: Soft 6 (up to Soft 5 after R5)
Rain position: True entire circuit
Race 5: Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) | Time: 2:32.25
- Horse to follow: Persan (4th)
If you have a futures ticket on Persan in the 2022 Melbourne Cup on the first Tuesday in November, you would have been very satisfied with his run in the Herbert Power Stakes. This six-year-old gelding sat just outside the leader, Good Idea, who set a solid tempo. When the leader started to give ground and fall back through the field, Persan was still going strong through the line. Even though this son of Pierro was beaten one and a half lengths by Saracen Knight, this guy has bigger fish to fry over 3200m, so it was really encouraging to see him run through the line strongly.
When to bet: Maher & Eustace confirmed this week that they will be taking Smokin’ Romans and Gold Trip to the Caulfield Cup, meaning that Persan will bypass the Caulfield Cup and we may potentially see him in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup on Cox Plate Day, or in the Geelong Cup. With Persan sitting at no.17 in the Melbourne Cup order of entry, he shouldn’t need to win again to gain a run in the race that stops the nation, so keep your powder dry and back him in the Cup on November 1.
Race 8: Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) | Time: 1:38.21
- Horse to follow: Osipenko (3rd)
There were quite a few unlucky runners in the Caulfield Guineas on Saturday, but we think that the horse to follow out of it is third-placegetter Osipenko, who finished half a length behind Golden Mile and Eliptical. This three-year-old colt travelled at the back of the field for the majority of the race, where at stages he was three wide, and he had to yield ground as he was chopped out for a run early on in the piece. Considering all of these factors for a young horse who was only in his fourth race start, and for him to run on so strongly and only go down by half a length, there is a lot of merit in his third-place finish.
When to bet: If Chris Waller and his team choose to keep Osipenko racing into the spring and accept in the Callander-Presnell (formerly Stan Fox Stakes) over 1600m at Randwick on October 22, this son of Pierro could be a very good bet and very hard to beat. If he goes to the paddock, then watch and wait for him to get back up to 1600m on a Soft track next preparation.
Race 10: Group 3 Northwood Plume Stakes (1200m) | Time: 1:10.05
- Horse to follow: Decent Raine (3rd)
In the last race of the day, the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained Decent Raine sat on speed over 1200m in Group 3 Northwood Plume Stakes and boxed on to run a very tenacious third place behind Literary Magnate and Written Beauty. This four-year-old mare has now had two runs since returning from a seven-month spell, finishing second and third over 1100m and 1200m. This mare sat on a hot speed, as they went seven lengths quicker than the standard time for the class, and she was still very good over the concluding stages to only go down by half a length to the winner, who came off the leader’s back and had all the favours during the run.
When to bet: Maher & Eustace have Decent Raine nominated for the Golden Eagle for four-year-olds at Rosehill Gardens over 1500m on October 29, and if they choose to go there next start and she finds a Soft track, she could be very hard to beat. This daughter of Dissident looks to be ready for a step up in distance, and if she can draw a low barrier and sit behind the leaders, she could be the one running over the top of the leaders late.