The Follow Files: Magic Millions gelding primed for 3YO Guineas
With the Christmas period around the corner, the racing in the southern states is starting to cool off, but it is only heating up in the Sunshine State as the Magic Millions Carnival approaches.
Many online bookmakers offer a blackbook punting tool, and in this week’s edition of The Follow Files, we have found three runners from last Saturday’s races that we suggest you add into yours.
Eagle Farm
Rail position: +2m entire circuit
Race 8: Listed Gold Edition Plate (1200m) | Time: 1:10.88
- Horse to follow: Show Me Mercy (3rd)
Show Me Mercy from the Stuart Kendrick stable competed in the toughest race of his five-start career and ran into third place, only beaten by 0.25 lengths. After settling midfield, Michael Rodd chose to make a run out wide but couldn’t make up the ground on the leading pair in the final 100m. However, this son of Astern was first-up, competing in Listed grade for the first time, and racing over 1200m for the second time, so to say he will take a lot of out the run would be an understatement.
When to bet: As a Magic Millions purchase, Show Me Mercy is on a Magic Millions 3YO Guineas path. We may see this gelding before Magic Millions Day on January 13 if Kendrick believes he needs another run to secure his place in the target race. Wherever this guy goes next, we will be backing him.
Caulfield
Rail position: +10m entire circuit
Race 9: 3YO & Up Handicap (1400m) | Time: 1:22.03
- Horse to follow: Bermadez (2nd)
Bermadez has started his preparation with consecutive second-place finishes, beaten by Pascero on both occasions. Last start, this seven-year-old gelding ran home from the back of the field and was the best of the backmarkers in the race. The son of Tavistock has recorded five of his career wins on rain-affected tracks, so for him to clock the second-fastest 400m and 200m sections of the meeting on a Good track suggests he is going as well as ever.
When to bet: Bermadez has two solid runs at 1400m under his belt, so Moroney may opt to step him up to 1600m third-up. Two of his six wins have come at Flemington, so the Benchmark 84 Handicap over 1600m there on January 13 ticks all the boxes for this guy.
Race 10: Benchmark 84 Handicap (1200m) | Time: 1:08.47
- Horse to follow: Kin (2nd)
In her second start this preparation, Kin from the Godolphin stable was sent around as a well-backed favourite in the last race at Caulfield. Unfortunately, due to her get-back-and-run-on racing pattern, the four-year-old mare was well out of her ground and gave herself too much work to do in the final 300m. Although the James Cummings-trained mare finished second, she clocked the fastest 200m sectionals from the 1000m to the 200m mark for the entire meeting.
When to bet: Kin has raced over 1100m and 1200m so far this campaign, and it appears unlikely she will get out over any further. The Listed Black Pearl Stakes for fillies and mares at Geelong on January 7 looks like a potential black-type target in the off-season.