|What||Everest Day 2021|
|Where||Royal Randwick Racecourse – Alison Rd, Randwick NSW 2031|
|When||Saturday, October 16, 2021|
|Feature Race||The Everest – Race 7|
|First Race||12:30pm AEDT|
HorseBetting’s New South Wales form analyst brings you an in-depth look at all 10 races for Saturday’s meeting at Royal Randwick, headlined by the fifth running of The Everest. The track is currently a Soft 7, while the rail is in the true position for the entire course. The opening race of the day is set to jump at 12:30pm AEDT, with The Everest field due to face the starter at 4:15pm.
Race 1: Benchmark 78 (1400m)
An open field of 15 horses will line up in the first race of the afternoon, but we are keen on the chances of Sam Kavanagh’s five-year-old import Visinari. The grey son of Dark Angel has had just one Australian start when fourth at Tamworth, where he started favourite behind Edit – our top pick in The Kosciuszko – and made good ground late over the 1200m. The gelding should relish the step out to 1400m and should handle the wet track, being a European. He will get back from barrier 13 under Glyn Schofield but could be too classy.
Race 2: The Star Mile (1600m)
In another competitive race, High Supremacy will start as a deserving favourite on the seven-day backup, but we are siding with one at each-way odds again in Looks Like Elvis. The seven-year-old very nearly won his way into the Epsom Handicap at his last start, finding plenty of bad luck in the straight to only go down by two-tenths of a length to Attishu while beating home Aramayo and Private Eye, who subsequently ran first and second in the Epsom. The son of All American has trialled since behind the speedy Sagacious and worked to the line well, which should tip him over nicely for this race. Glen Boss on from barrier six is a big plus, as he should be out of trouble with plenty of racing room. He is a Heavy-track winner too.
Race 3: Class 3 Highway Handicap (1100m)
You can’t keep a good jockey down for too long, and while we haven’t tipped him to win in the first two races, we think James McDonald will salute in the Highway aboard Ahead Start. The Danny Williams-trained four-year-old was a good runner-up behind Leo first-up, with that runner franking the form by winning very well at Randwick last Saturday in better company. The son of Dream Ahead has drawn perfectly in gate number two, which will see McDonald him settle in a prominent position in the big field before hopefully getting a winning split in the straight. The race favourite has only missed the placings in one of his six career starts, winning three of those with one on rain-affected going. He should be too good again.
Race 4: Listed Reginald Allen Quality (1400m)
Chris Waller’s stables accounts for five of the 13 fillies accepted in the first black-type race of the day, including race favourite Fangirl, who was an acceptor in the Group 1 Flight Stakes prior to being scratched on the morning of the race. The Sebring filly is out of the mare Little Surfer Girl, who raced in the same colours and had plenty of quality, and that ability looks to have been passed down to Fangirl based on what we saw in her five-length maiden win at Goulburn. James McDonald will need to find a clear passage from barrier one, but he is the man to do so. Fangirl’s stablemate Mystic Mermaid looks to have some ability but might find the 1400m a touch short, while another Waller runner in Headliner was close to a certainty beaten in her first-up run.
Race 5: The Kosciuszko (1200m)
The fourth running of The Kosciuszko has attracted what we believe is the most competitive line-up yet. Some 14 country horses have come from far and wide to contest this $1.3 million race, and while Edit is trained at Tamworth, he originally comes from across the ditch, winning his maiden at Ellerslie in 2020. The son of Swiss Ace was super impressive in his only Australian start, coming through the field to win by 1.9 lengths in the Spring Cup at Tamworth. Barrier 11 won’t be too much of a concern, as he will get back in the run under Hugh Bowman and come flying home down the centre of the track. Mares Sunrise Ruby and Spiranac can present as dangers, while Art Cadeau will be looking to complete the Country Championship Final and Kosciuszko double in the same calendar year.
Race 6: Group 3 Sydney Stakes (1200m)
Traditionally known as the Tatt’s Lightning Stakes, the Group 3 Sydney Stakes has become somewhat of a consolation race for runners that didn’t make the field for The Everest later on in the program. We are a tad surprised to see bottom weight Enchanted Heart listed as a $21 outsider given how well she goes in wet conditions, winning three from four on Heavy tracks. The Shamus Award mare won the Listed Takeover Target Stakes at Gosford back in May on a Soft 7 and beat Everest contender Lost And Running two starts earlier, which reads very well on paper. While she was only fair first-up at Warwick Farm, she should improve a fair bit second-up and out to 1200m. Jason Collett can get an economical run from barrier two and reel them in late.
Race 7: The Everest (1200m)
The 2021 edition of The Everest is set to be an absolute belter, with Nature Strip out to win his first. The Chris Waller-trained seven-year-old is in form we haven’t seen from him in the past, which is scary given he has won $8 million in prizemoney and multiple Group 1 races. Drawn out in barrier 10, James McDonald will be able to stalk Eduardo, rather than being stalked, which will be a massive advantage. The wet track is only going to aid his chances considering he is undefeated on Heavy going and is a four-time winner on Soft surfaces. It looks like it will be third time lucky for Nature Strip, and we are chips-in.
Race 8: Group 3 Craven Plate (2000m)
The Craven Plate has attracted a very similar field to the Hill Stakes that was run and won over this distance at Randwick a fortnight ago under the same weight-for-age conditions, so it is hard to see too much of a different result occurring. In the Hill, Think It Over fended off the challenge from Shared Ambition, with that pair putting on a one-length gap back to the third and fourth horses, Cepheus and Keiai Nautique. There will be a bit more speed in this race on Saturday, meaning Shared Ambition may not get a picnic in front again, so we think the Japanese horse Keiai Nautique can get over the top of them late. The Matthew Smith-trained son of Deep Impact has never seen a rain-affected surface before, which is a concern, but his sectionals are too good to ignore.
Race 9: St Leger Stakes (2600m)
Stayers get their chance in the penultimate race, with a swag of these runners stepping out to the 2600m after running in the Metropolitan Handicap two weeks ago. We do have a bit of a bias towards Queenslanders, but there is no reason why Michael Costa’s mare Purrfect Deal cannot win this. The Grafton Cup winner has won seven of her 13 career starts and been in the minor money on four occasions, including once at this track when third in the Christmas Cup last December. The daughter of Dundeel is undefeated on wet tracks and should benefit from the speed in this race, allowing her to find cover from barrier eight under Regan Bayliss and finish the better. There’s been some money around for the mare too. Entente, Luncies and Warning were the runners out of the Metropolitan that we were keen to follow.
Race 10: Benchmark 78 (1400m)
We started with a Benchmark 78 over 1400m, and that is what we will finish with too. You could throw a dart at them here – this is tough. Top weight Equation is on the seven-day backup after being unlucky in the Silver Eagle due to a broken-down horse causing a ruckus as they entered the straight. The quick turnaround suggests that Annabel Neasham is confident the horse pulled up well and was left unscathed from the run, so he should find this Benchmark 78 significantly easier. From gate five, he can settle closer under Brock Ryan and be hard to beat. There is no knock on Promise Of Success, who should enjoy a moderate tempo, while Suave and the in-form Much Much Better could run a cheeky race at odds.
Randwick quaddie numbers for Everest Day 2021
|Randwick quadrella selections|
|Investment:||$192 for 100%|