Randwick race-by-race preview & best bets | Saturday, March 5

Randwick betting tips

What Royal Randwick Races
Where Royal Randwick Racecourse – Alison Rd, Randwick NSW 2031
When Saturday, March 5, 2022
Feature Race Race 8: Group 1 Randwick Guineas (1600m)
First Race 12:20pm AEDT

With relentless rain in Sydney over the past couple of days, it is a massive waiting game between now and Saturday to see if the 10-race program at Royal Randwick will go ahead. Two cracking Group 1 races are scheduled for the meeting, as well as key lead-up races to the Golden Slipper, while a mammoth rematch between Nature Strip and Eduardo beckons in the Challenge Stakes. The track is unsurprisingly rated a Heavy 10 – it did play incredibly well last Saturday under similar circumstances – while the rail is out 6m from the 1000m to the winning post and 3m for the remainder of the course.

HorseBetting’s New South Wales form analyst presents you his race-by-race preview, best bets, quaddie numbers and full analysis of the two Group 1 races – the Canterbury Stakes and the Randwick Guineas.

Race 1: Benchmark 72 Midway Handicap (1600m)

This is one of the more quality Midways we have seen since the race’s inception, so we are pretty keen to see how it plays out. John Sargent and the in-form Sam Clipperton combine with Satirical Glory who is second up off a spell. In his six starts, the three-year-old son of So You Think has won just the one race, but that did come over 1600m in September. On that occasion, he raced on a Soft 5 – the only time he has seen rain-affected going. He is on a derby path, so he is likely to want further than the mile, but he really caught the eye fresh behind Cape Breton over 1400m. At the end of last campaign, Satirical Glory placed fourth behind Profondo and Never Been Kissed at Group 1 level, so he is certainly no slouch.


Race 2: Group 2 Reisling Stakes (1200m)

Just seven two-year-old fillies will be looking to book their spot into the Golden Slipper, with a win in the Reisling Stakes offering ballot exemption. Russian Conquest is one of the leading fancies for the Slipper, so we have to be with her in this. The Snowden-trained daughter of Russian Revolution suffered her first loss behind Coolangatta in the Gold Coast Magic Millions 2YO Classic in January, but prior to that she had been dominant. She has drawn wide under Tommy Berry in gate seven, but she has a pretty tractable racing pattern that can see her settle handy to the speed or be out the back, so we are keen to be with her. Greece has got a big boom on her being a full sister to Loving Gaby, and she has trialled impressively leading up to her debut, so there will be a big watch there.


Race 3: Group 2 Todman Stakes (1200m)

It is a similar scenario in the Todman Stakes, with just nine two-year-olds stepping out in what is one of the last chances to earn a golden ticket into the Golden Slipper. We are with $1.15 million colt Custodian for one main reason. The Anthony & Sam Freedman-trained son of Shalaa is a half brother to Profondo, and we all know how good he is, so we cannot let him go around without us on debut at double figure odds. The Freedmans also stamped themselves as one of the best training combinations of two-year-olds after winning their second consecutive Blue Diamond Stakes last weekend. This horse trialled well when winning a 1050m trial on February 17, and Nash Rawiller is a big advantage from barrier three.


Race 4: Listed Randwick City Stakes (2000m)

Since 2008, only one horse has carried more than 55.5kg to win the Randwick City Stakes, and that was Newport back in 2009, who won the Group 1 Metropolitan Handicap in the spring before. We have loved what No Compromise has done in his three runs back this campaign, finishing in the minor money in all three starts. The Chris Waller-trained five-year-old finally gets out to 2000m on Saturday and gets a genuinely heavy track which he should love. The son of Pins has to only carry 53.5kg, so history is on his side, while he should be able to stay out of strife from barrier 13 under Jay Ford. Expect another big run from this Sydney Cup prospect.


Next BestNo Compromise $4.50 with Sportsbet

Race 5: Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1000m)

If you need a pick-me-up at this point in the afternoon, you are going to get one. To build the hype, go back and watch the 2021 Challenge Stakes where Nature Strip and Eduardo paired off down the straight in an epic ding-dong battle. Eduardo got the better of Nature Strip on that occasion, but we are confident that Nature Strip can turn the tables on him this time around – just like he has in most of their stoushes to date. Nature Strip is unbeaten on heavy tracks, he was brilliant first-up in the Lightning Stakes where he beat home Eduardo and he should be able to track him from barrier seven with James McDonald back in the saddle.


Best BetNature Strip $1.70 with Sportsbet

Race 6: Listed Fireball Stakes (1100m)

This race was won by the recently-retired Wild Ruler in 2021, so we could be on the lookout for the next Group 1 winner. Although Dragonstone has a way to go yet before winning a Group 1, Listed racing looks right up his alley. The Mark Newnham-trained three-year-old is yet to miss the place in three career starts, winning three of those. The son of Mikki Isle has had two starts on a heavy track, winning his maiden on a Heavy 9, before running second to Sky Command on a Heavy 8 at his third career start. The sprinter trialled brilliantly on February 17, defeating Ellsberg who won a Group 3 last Saturday by three lengths. He may not have won the quality of races compared to some of his rivals, but he has been missed by the market here.


Race 7: Group 1 Canterbury Stakes (1300m)

The first Group 1 on Saturday is the Canterbury Stakes over 1300m. The race has changed complexion slightly, with the scratching of Zaaki, but it is still a high-quality field. See our full preview for the race here.

Race 8: Group 1 Randwick Guineas (1600m)

The feature race of the day is the Randwick Guineas, which features Caulfield Guineas winner Anamoe. See how we are spending $100 on the Randwick Guineas and read our full preview here.

Race 9: Group 3 Aspiration Quality (1600m)

There are a couple of nice mares going around in the Aspiration Quality on Saturday, but given the heavy conditions on Saturday, it is hard to go past Polly Grey. The seven-year-old grey mare has won 10 starts in her career, all of which have been on rain-affected going. The daughter of Azamour finished third in the Summer Cup on Boxing Day over 2000m before being given a freshen up, which saw her resume at the trials on February 21. She loves the mile, she will come into her own on the Heavy 10 and James McDonald has a brilliant record on her, combining twice for two wins. She should be too good.


Race 10: Group 3 Wenona Girl Quality (1200m)

To finish off the afternoon, mares will clash in the Wenona Girl Quality in what is a wide-open affair. We have gone a bit wider and will be backing Seasons at $41 odds. The Kylie Gavenlock-trained mare has won five of her 21 starts and has often found a bit of bad luck in the past, however we think this is the right race for her. She has won three starts on rain-affected going, including the Group 3 Birthday Card Stakes last March over 1200m at Rosehill on a Soft 6. That win came on the back of running second in this very race when also resuming. The daughter of Sebring didn’t do a great deal over the spring, but she raced on Good 4 and Good 3 surfaces the whole time in some tough, tough races. Her trials haven’t been anything flash, but they rarely are so we aren’t looking too much into them. Andrew Gibbons made himself known to the seven-year-old in her most recent trial which is an advantage. She gets a few favours in this to cause an upset.


Best ValueSeasons $41 with Sportsbet

Saturday quaddie picks for Randwick Guineas Day

Randwick quadrella selections
Leg 1: 3-9-10
Leg 2: 1-2-12
Leg 3: 1-7
Leg 4: 1-3-5-6-9-10
Investment: $300 for 100%

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