Follow Files: ATC Derby winner ready to win next start
Last Saturday marked the first Group 1 raceday of the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival. We had Group racing at both Caulfield and Randwick, with the Memsie Stakes taking centre stage. In this week’s edition of the Follow Files, we have identified three runners that look ready to run a big race at their next start.
Randwick
Rail position: +4m entire circuit
Race 8: Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) | Time: 1:35.92
- Horse to follow: Major Beel (2nd)
After a sub-par performance over 1400m in the Group 1 Winx Stakes, Major Beel improved massively to finish second behind Navajo Peak in the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes last Saturday, going down by only half a length. The Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained gelding will perform much better over 2000m-plus, and now that he has turned in such a good run over 1600m, he should be ready to peak third-up over a longer trip.
When to bet: The Group 2 Kingston Town Stakes over 2000m at Randwick on September 23 looks the ideal race for Major Beel next start. If he can win that, he will be exempt from the ballot for the Group 1 Metropolitan over 2400m two weeks later.
Race 9: Group 3 Tramway Stakes (1400m) | Time: 1:22.85
- Horse to follow: Hope In Your Heart (3rd)
The Kerry Parker-trained Hope In Your Heart returned from a five-month spell in the Group 2 Tramway Stakes at Randwick, where she finished third behind Pericles after having to deal with a lot of traffic in the home straight. This five-year-old mare ended last preparation with a runner-up finish in the Group 1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes, and many expected her to run a big race first-up this spring. Unfortunately for her followers, this daughter of Dundeel had to duck and weave to find clear air but never actually got clear until the final strides of the race.
When to bet: There look to be two Group 2 races that should be on the radar for Hope In Your Heart, with both the Golden Pendant and Shannon Stakes to be run at Rosehill on September 23. The Golden Pendant is for fillies and mares, so we expect Parker and his team to go that route and stay at 1400m second-up.
Caulfield
Rail position: True entire circuit
Race 5: Group 3 McNeil Stakes (1200m) | Time: 1:09.46
- Horse to follow: Scheelite (5th)
The Ken & Kasey Keys-trained Scheelite has turned in two great performances at Group 3 level this preparation, finishing fifth in both the Vain Stakes and McNeil Stakes at Caulfield. At his most recent start, this son of Real Steel was ranked inside the top 10 for the entire meeting for his last 1000m, 800m and 600m sectionals. Although he put his unbeaten record on the line and hasn’t won since returning for his three-year-old season, this colt appears ready to show his best over 1400m next start.
When to bet: If the Keys team keeps Scheelite to two weeks in between starts, we expect him to line up in the Listed Exford Plate over 1400m at Flemington on September 23, where he will be a massive chance against his own age group.