2023 Randwick Guineas preview & betting strategy | March 4

March 2, 2023 9:17 am.

What	2023 Randwick Guineas
Where	Royal Randwick Racecourse – Alison Rd, Randwick NSW 2031
When	Saturday, March 4, 2023
Prizemoney	$1,000,000
Distance	1600m
Status	Group 1
Conditions	Set Weights
2022 Winner	Converge (2) \| T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott \| J: Tim Clark (56.5kg)
Visit Ladbrokes

The second of two Group 1 races at Randwick on Saturday afternoon is the Group 1 Randwick Guineas over the 1600m for the three-year-olds.

We’ve got a field of 12 gallopers engaged for the 2023 edition of the Randwick Guineas, and with the last 10 winners of the race coming from the Hobartville Stakes, it’s safe to think the major chances are set to come from that race. Aft Cabin went down as a short-priced favourite in the Hobartville as Osipenko got the better of the Godolphin colt after being well beaten in the Eskimo Prince Stakes.

Randwick Guineas odds

The James Cummings-trained colt Aft Cabin has opened favourite with online bookmakers at $2.90 as James McDonald hops back aboard. Osipenko, after winning the Hobartville Stakes, finds himself on the second line of betting at $4.80. Zou Tiger ($6), Matcha Latte ($8.50) and Communist ($16) all come through the same lead-up race, while Attrition ($11) could throw some different form into the mix, coming out of the CS Hayes Stakes in Melbourne, but is dual-accepted for the Australian Guineas at Flemington. Victoria Derby winner Manzoice makes his return and is one of the outside hopes at $31.

Randwick Guineas speedmap analysis

There should be a genuine tempo in this year’s Randwick Guineas with some big-odds chances looking to inject early speed into the race. Communist led them up in the Hobartville, and from gate seven with Zac Purton engaged, he looks the likely pacemaker. Last-start winner Lindermann was a tearaway leader last time and, from gate 12, could see Aft Cabin come across with him. Zou Tiger hasn’t shown his traditional early speed of late, electing to take a sit; however, he can be prominent in the run. Same goes for Hollywood Hero, who is taking a big step up in class and could easily play a game of ‘catch me if you can’. Osipenko can find the one-one with Nash Rawiller steering the ship, while Aft Cabin may press forward and risk the chance of getting caught three wide, which is exactly what happened last time out. Attrition will get a perfect run in behind the speed provided they head north, and Matcha Latte should be in striking distance if good enough from barrier five. Manzoice and Promitto haven’t shown much early speed in the past and look the likely pair at the tail of the field.

Randwick Guineas form & tips

Aft Cabin went down as a short-priced commodity in the Hobartville Stakes at $1.60 but had plenty of excuses. He missed the start with Tim Clark on board, before being ruffled up to sit three wide for the majority of the 1400m journey. He eventually crossed to sit outside the leader but started to feel the pinch late in the piece, falling back into the field and getting pumped in the process. Things simply didn’t go to plan and it’s a race all involved would like to be run all over again. James McDonald will be desperate to find cover on this son of Astern this time and, from barrier 10, will track across with Lindermann to gain that forward position. He’s been the one to beat in this race since resuming in the Eskimo Prince. You’re getting a fair price with online betting sites to find out after that misstep in the Hobartville, and we’re happy to side with him.

We think Matcha Latte presents at a nice price here second-up after impressing in the Hobartville as well. He resumed in the 1400m feature and was finding the line very nicely for a horse that will appreciate the step up to the 1600m. He doesn’t mind a wet track either, if the rain does come, and from barrier five Tom Sherry should get a perfect run to stalk the speed. He’s the each-way value in the race, and we’ll have a small play on him just in case we don’t see the best of Aft Cabin.

Osipenko has been set this task a long way out for the Chris Waller camp and he’s got to go in the top selections. We missed out on his price in the Hobartville Stakes and now the market has rightly adjusted to his mark. He’ll get a very similar run to his latest victory. The only query we’ve got is if the rain does come and we’re racing on a wet surface; that might give the advantage to Aft Cabin.

We love the different form Attrition brings if the Mitchell Freedman camp does elect to come here on Saturday. The run behind Elliptical in the CS Hayes Stakes on February 18 at Flemington was an obvious eye-catcher, finding the line well. Now, heading to the mile for the first time looks ideal for the colt out of Churchill. If he was a confirmed runner here, we could’ve even considered a bet.