Why Vega Magic won’t be beaten in the 2017 Manikato Stakes
IF The Everest is any form guide to go by, Vega Magic should be winning Friday night’s Group 1 Manikato Stakes.
The Moonee Valley feature includes some of Australia’s best sprinters including Chautauqua and In Her Time, but all eyes will be on punters’ elect Vega Magic.
The Lindsay Park-trained five-year-old was extremely unlucky to not win The Everest and its form prior to that defeat was stunning.
Punters backed in the son of Lope de Vega into $2.10 earlier this week, but there’s some trepidation in the market currently. It has drifted out to $2.25 with Neds.com.au, but that’s good value in our books and we think it’s one of the better bets this weekend at Moonee Valley.
2017 Manikato Stakes betting
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Why Vega Magic should win the Manikato Stakes
There’s no such thing as a moral in the horse racing game, but punters should be extremely confident with Vega Magic on Friday night.
Not only has it won 12 of its 18 career starts, but nine of those wins have come over the 1200m distance and it has been winning at the highest level possible.
Its win in the Group 1 Goodwood showed that it can win on the big stage and it followed that win up with another two quality victories.
It accounted for Brave Smash in the Regal Roller Stakes at Caulfield and that form has been franked by Brave Smash with its third placing in The Everest.
It went into the Group 1 Memsie Stakes as the $2.25 favourite and a talented group of sprinters was simply no match for Vega Magic. The quality gelding scored by 1.75 lengths over multiple group one winner Black Heart Bart and it did that with 59kg on its back.
Dropping slightly down in weight to 58.5kg is a positive and we’re confident Craig Williams, who has an incredible book of rides, can recapture his best form at the right time this spring carnival.
Simply put, punters should take the $2.25 at Neds.com.au while it’s available and there should be a big late push for Vega Magic.
Is Chautauqua the same horse?
There has been a lot of love for Chautauqua this season, but punters have done their dough at its last three starts.
We’re not doubting the champion qualities of the 13-time winner, but it’s easy to get carried away with its turn-of-foot.
The seven-year-old flashed home along the inside of runners in The Everest, but it is easy to make ground from the back when the pace up front is so hot. That’s exactly how Chautauqua wins its races, but the pace horses in the Manikato look too strong.
Chautauqua looks best when finishing over the top of natural front runners which can’t sustain the sprint, but the likes of Vega Magic and In Her Time are strong at the end of their races and we can’t see Chautauqua running record sectionals to overhaul them.
There will be some sentimental support for the grey, but the $8.50 is too short in a race where it will be out the back and fighting to stay in touch turning for home.
In Her Time form isn’t the strongest around
In Her Time is currently on the second line of betting at $5.50, which is far too short considering its form.
Yes, it looked good in winning the Sydney Stakes, but that came against inferior opposition and Impending wouldn’t get within 10 lengths of the winner in a Manikato Stakes.
The Ben Smith-trained mare won the Premiere Stakes over English prior to that, but English is a well-known spring racing flop and we’re starting to see flaws in the form of In Her Time.
Before winning consecutive races it finished third in the Tatt’s Tiara behind Tycoon Tara, second in the Stradbroke behind Impending and fifth behind Redzel in the Doomben 10,000. Only Redzek would have a chance in this year’s Manikato Stakes.
It’s having its first start at Moonee Valley, as is Vega Magic, but Vega Magic looks good enough to contest international sprinting contests and In Her Time is just below that form currently.