The Follow Files: Metropolitan winner returns in fine style
This Saturday saw a fair chunk of the autumn carnival horses return in both Victoria and New South Wales as Sandown and Randwick held feature races. We had decent support programs from Morphettville and Eagle Farm, while Ascot was postponed to Sunday due to the extreme heat in Perth.
Sandown stayed in the Soft range for the entire day after a lot of rain fell in Melbourne across Thursday and Friday; therefore, the track raced with an on-speed bias, with most of the winners coming from the first four upon settling. Randwick proved to be the fairer of the two tracks with winners coming from everywhere all day. We have found three runners that are worth following, with two coming from Sandown and one from Randwick.
Sandown Hillside – Ladbrokes Park Race Day
Track rating: Soft 6
Rail position: +3m entire circuit
Race 7: Group 3 Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes (1300m) | Time: 1:18.81
- Horse to follow: Wrote To Arataki (1st)
The feature race of the day saw a big betting plunge land, with Wrote To Arataki leading all the way in the Group 3 Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes, as she was backed into a $2.90 favourite with online bookmakers. With the on-speed bias prevalent and there for all to see by race seven, many smart punters started to focus their attention on the main speed influence in the race and it paid dividends by 4:30pm when the favourite was first past the post by half a length over Belle Et Riche. This four-year-old mare has now won her last two starts and has gone from a Warrnambool Maiden to a Sandown Group 3 in just under a year. As her trainer (Matthew Williams) said post-race, “it is a fair transition she’s made”, and he isn’t wrong.
When to bet: Wrote To Arataki has won at both Flemington and Sandown now, and she has shown that she can run out a strong 1300m and 1400m at those two starts. Williams mentioned the possibility of going to the Group 3 Mannerism Stakes over 1400m on February 25 back at Sandown as the next possible start for this mare. If Williams and his team choose to go that way, she will be very hard to beat, given that she is an on-speed horse who is at peak fitness.
Race 8: Benchmark 100 Handicap (1800m) | Time: 1:50.57
- Horse to follow: Right You Are (1st)
After somewhat of a failure during the Victorian Spring Carnival, the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained Right You Are has returned for a summer campaign and in doing so, has won three in a row at Sandown and Moonee Valley over 1800m and 2000m. The most dominant of his three wins came at Sandown on the weekend, as he ran away with an outstanding four-length victory over Beltoro and his stablemate and race-favourite Detonator Jack. Now that he has taken care of his Benchmark 100 Handicap race, he has now earned his crack at a Listed or Group 3 event.
When to bet: David Eustace spoke post-race about Right You Are targeting one of the Group 3 Hobart Cup or Group 3 Launceston Cup, with the latter looking like the more likely of the two as it will be on February 26. He would be a very good chance to record his fourth win in a row if he was to go down to Tasmania. However, the Listed Mornington Cup will be run on April 22 and that was also mentioned as a possible target by Eustace. Wherever this six-year-old gelding goes, he is worth following and he looks to be in career-best form.
Randwick – Randwick Race Day
Track rating: Good 4
Rail position: +8m 1600m – Winning Post, +5m Remainder
Race 6: Open Handicap (1600m) | Time: 1:35.81
- Horse to follow: No Compromise (2nd)
The sixth race of the day at Randwick saw the 2023 Melbourne Cup favourite, Soulcombe, and the 2022 Metropolitan winner, No Compromise, return to the race track to begin their autumn campaigns. After only having one quiet trial at Rosehill Gardens over 1000m, the Chris Waller-trained gelding was very impressive when flashing home to finish second behind the race favourite Banju by just under a length. No Compromise finished off his race in fine style, even though 1600m is well short of his best distance. He recorded the fastest last 600m (33.90) of any runner that ran in a race over 1600m or more on Saturday.
When to bet: After a very good first-up performance No Compromise looks to have returned in great form after a very impressive spring campaign at the back end of 2022. Waller hasn’t confirmed what the outlook is for his gelding, but we expect the Group 1 Sydney Cup over 3200m on April 8 to be the top target for this preparation. However, he is a big chance to pick up a couple of wins along the way and if he follows the same path as he did last autumn, he should be going to the Listed Parramatta Cup over 1900m on February 18 and then onto the Group 3 N E Manion Cup over 2400m. There is no doubt that No Compromise is in for a massive autumn, so we will be following him at every start.