The Follow Files: Australian Guineas favourite returns in style

Follow Files blackbook tips

Over the Australia Day long weekend, we had feature racing on Friday and Saturday at Caulfield, Moonee Valley, and the Sunshine Coast. From the Caulfield meeting on Australia Day and the Sunshine Coast program on Saturday, we have found three runners that we will be placing into our Blackbook with one of the many online bookmakers that offer the ability to follow horses and receive notifications for their upcoming starts.

Caulfield (26/1)

Track rating: Good 4
Rail position: True Entire Circuit

Race 5: Listed W.J. Adams Stakes (1000m) | Time: 0:56.92

  • Horse to follow: Sweet Ride (3rd)

Sweet Ride was given a month between his first and second starts of this preparation after he finished second last in the Christmas Stakes on Boxing Day, which appears to have been a master stroke by Annabel Neasham. On Australia Day at Caulfield, the four-year-old entire contested Listed grade again, but over 1000m this time, and he ran home stylishly from the back of the field to finish third behind Queman and Najem Suhail. This son of Deep Field ran home in the fastest 800m, 600m, 400m, and 200m sections of the entire meeting.

When to bet: With the autumn carnivals in Melbourne and Sydney around the corner, we expect Neasham and her team to enter Sweet Ride in a Listed or Group 3 race over 1000m, where he will seek to keep his undefeated third-up record intact (3:3-0-0).

Race 6: Group 3 Manfred Stakes (1200m) | Time: 1:09.59

  • Horse to follow: King Colorado (2nd)

After being unwanted in betting first-up in the Manfred Stakes, King Colorado produced one of the best finishing bursts of the day, running home from the back of the field to finish second behind Brave Mead over 1200m. As a Group 1 winner over 1600m in the J.J. Atkins as a two-year-old, 1200m was always going to be short of his best distance, and it wasn’t his target race for the campaign. This son of Kingman clocked the fastest last 1000m sectional of the meeting and recorded times that ranked inside the top 10 in the final 600m, 400m, and 200m.

When to bet: Post-race, Ciaron Maher confirmed that the Group 1 Australian Guineas on March 2 is the target for King Colorado. We expect that he will have another run, potentially at 1400m, before going into the Guineas third-up. As the Guineas favourite at +450 in futures markets with top horse betting sites, he is worth a bet and will only shorten if he wins his next start.

Sunshine Coast (27/1)

Track rating: Soft 5 (up to Good 4 after R3)
Rail position: +3m entire circuit

Race 10: Benchmark 68 Handicap (1400m) | Time: 1:24.23

  • Horse to follow: Lady Le Da (6th)

Lady Le Da was a horrible watch for the punters that piled into the Paul Jenkins-trained mare, who shortened from +900 to +600 in the closing minutes of betting. Most punters would have been following this girl after she went down as a beaten favourite first-up at the track and trip. After getting a cosy run throughout the race, Jim Byrne angled out to try and push through the pack to get a run, but he was blocked and crowded for room. By the time this daughter of Domesday burst through a gap and started to let down, the race was already over, and she flew home into sixth place, only to be beaten by 1.9 lengths.

When to bet: With six of her 10 career starts coming at the Sunshine Coast, we anticipate Jenkins and his team will try and find the right race for her at her home track. If Lady Le Da is entered in a race of similar grade or slightly weaker over 1400m, she should go very close to winning third-up.

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