Flemington race-by-race betting preview | Australian Guineas Day

General Beau

What Flemington Races
Where Flemington Racecourse – 448 Epsom Rd, Flemington VIC 3031
When Saturday, February 20, 2021
First Race 12:20pm AEDT
Feature Race Group 1 Australian Guineas

Flemington Horse Racing Tips – February 27, 2021

It is Australian Guineas Day as Flemington hosts a nine-part program that is packed with top-class racing. The track is rated a Good 4 and the rail is out 2m the entire circuit, while a clear forecast for Saturday afternoon points to a ripper day of racing at Headquarters from 12:20pm AEDT.

Race 1 – Festival Of Racing 1000

The two-year-olds will kick off the card with a 1000m dash down the Flemington straight. A small field of nine is set to do battle for the $140,000 on the line, and the Maher & Eustace-trained Decent Raine (#4) looks hard to go past despite a poor run in the Blue Diamond Prelude. The Dissident filly was desperately unlucky on debut at Gawler when racing wide throughout and only getting nabbed on the line late. She was then sent around as a well-supported runner in the Prelude but was held up for a run at a crucial point. Barrier one is always a positive for a two-year-old down the straight as jockeys look to get them down to the rail on the course proper. The clear danger is Tycoon Humma, who let down nicely on debut at Bendigo, but the $2.70 is too short for us to entertain. We much prefer the $5.50 available for Decent Raine.

Selections: 4-5-1-8

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Next Best Bet Of The Day

Race 2 – Roy Higgins Quality

The 2021 Roy Higgins Quality has attracted a small field of eight, but it is usually a race punters can bet in with confidence. The last five winners of the 2600m have been well supported in the market, and it looks to be a similar case this year. Skymax (#3) looms as one of the better bets on the program following a hard-fought win in the Listed Australia Day Cup at Warwick Farm. The step up to 2600m looks ideal, and with speed drawn to his outside, he should get a nice cart across with Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle. The likes of Mosh Music and Sin To Win will be the key dangers late on as they charge home, but Skymax looks to have a touch of class on his side for his first run in Melbourne.

Selections: 3-2-4-5

Next BestRace 2 – Skymax (#3) $2.80 with Sportsbet

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Race 3 – Shaftesbury Avenue Handicap

The 2021 Shaftesbury Avenue sees the arrival of Queensland cult hero The Harrovian (#2) to Victoria ahead of his All Star Mile quest. The Toby Edmonds-trained star has won his last 11 races, and we are backing he and Brad Stewart to make it 12 on the trot with a win in this Group 3 race over 1400m. His first-up record has seen him win four times from seven goes, and with a few of his key rivals struggling to find a win lately, we think winning form is good form on Saturday for The Harrovian.

Selections: 2-5-1-4

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Best Bet Of The Day

Race 4 – World Racing Handicap

Our best bet of the program comes up in Race 4 of the Flemington card when Subedar (#6) steps out for just the second time in 18 months. He returned at Randwick off a 15-month layoff and was a half-length second behind a smart one after making up plenty of ground in the home straight. He steps back to 1200m for his second-up run and looks hard to hold out with Jamie Kah on board. With speed drawn underneath him, he should get a nice cart into the race. Look for Kah to get Subedar off heels and then charging home late. The likes of Defiant Dancer and Laverrod will be a few lengths in front at the 400m mark, but our pick has a slick turn of foot that will see him eat into that margin quite quickly.

Selections: 6-4-3-7

Best BetRace 4 – Subedar (#6) $3.20 with Sportsbet

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Race 5 – ATA/Bob Hoysted Hcp

The market suggests this is quite an open race with the likes of Hey Doc and Muntaseera both resuming. However, the race fitness that Fabergino and All Banter have under their belts will prove crucial over the 1000m dash down the Flemington straight. Dropping back out of the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes, Fabergino (#2) looks hard to run down in the Bob Hoysted with Michael Poy retaining the ride. He absolutely eats up the 1000m at Flemington, winning three from four starts at the track and distance, with his only blemish coming when fourth in the Lightning Stakes a fortnight ago. All Banter and the WA galloper Indian Pacific will take some beating, but it is hard to ignore the Flemington form of Fabergino.

Selections: 2-8-5-10
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Race 6 – Darley Blamey Stakes

The Group 2 Blamey Stakes opens the quaddie at Flemington on Saturday afternoon, and with the “win and you’re in” ticket available for the All Star Mile, this looks set to be a top-quality event. Having led for all but on the winning post in his first-up run, Buffalo River (#11) with Jamie Kah on top looks like a hard combination to run down in this 1600m race. Rivals such as Mystic Journey and Star Of The Seas have found winning a challenge recently, while Best Of Days looks to be the hardest to hold out following a win in the Carlyon Cup. Fifty Stars has won this race the last two years and cannot be left out of trifectas and quaddies.

Selections: 11-5-1-6

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Feature Race Of The Day

Race 7 – Kennedy Australian Guineas

The Group 1 Australian Guineas is the featured event on the Flemington card and draws a field of 16 three-year-olds to fight it out for $1,000,000. Having absolutely bolted home in The Vanity last weekend, Zou Dancer (#15) looks well placed to continue her dramatic rise through the ranks and claim her first Group 1 at start six. With only 55kg on her back as the only filly in the race, and with Jamie Kah on board, all signs point to success. Tagaloa will make her earn it following a win in the CS Hayes Stakes a fortnight ago, while the likes of Ole Kirk and Aysar will be there or thereabouts. This is set to be a cracker.

Selections: 15-2-1-3

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Value Bet Of The Day

Race 8 – Inglis Dash

Anyone would think that this year’s Inglis Dash was taking place in Sydney, with almost half the field having their last start in New South Wales. Japery (#5) returns to the Flemington 1100m, where he was an utterly dominant winner three runs back on January 16. It is expected to be a genuinely run 1100m, so look for the three-year-old gelding to get out sharply from the inside draw and give the field something to catch. Rocketing By beat Japery by nearly four lengths three weeks ago, but David Pfieffer’s colt sees Flemington for the first time in his career this weekend. The Bopper could be a future star, but his two runs this campaign have been less than convincing.

Selections: 5-3-2-13

Value BetRace 8 – Japery (#5) $20 with Sportsbet

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Race 9 – Furphy Ale Frances Tressady Stakes

The final leg of the quaddie sees a big field of 15 fillies and mares compete in the Group 3 Tressady Stakes. Paul’s Regret (#10) was huge in defeat behind Probabeel in the Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes, only going down to the star mare by 1.25 lengths. Having already won at Flemington this campaign, the Peter Chow runner will have a big chunk of the nation behind her as William Pike hops on board for the first time in the last race on the card. All Star Mile-bound Greysful Glamour will run a cheeky race up in front as always, and Snapdancer will be thereabouts when the whips are cracking.

Selections: 10-8-2-11

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Flemington quaddie tips for Australian Guineas Day

Flemington Quadrella Selections
R6: 1-5-6-11
R7: 1-2-3-15
R8: 2-3-5-13
R9: 2-8-10-11
Investment $256 for 100%

[rmOC_events_list event_ids=1362345_06,1362345_07,1362345_08,1362345_09]


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