Caulfield Cup head-to-head betting Humidor vs. Johannes Vermeer

humidor vs Johannes caulfield cup

FORGET the group one races that have already been run-and-won this spring, the first real major race of the Melbourne racing season is the Caulfield Cup.

The unfortunate scratching of one-time favourite Admire Deus has taken a bit of the shine off one of Australia’s favourite group races, but there are still a number of worthy contenders running around at Caulfield on Saturday.

The pair we are looking at today are $4 race favourite at Ladbrokes Johannes Vermeer and Darren Weir-trained group one winner, Humidor.

Can Humdior ($7 for the Caulfield Cup at William Hill) get back to the form that saw it taking out the Group One Makybe Diva Stakes on September 16 or will the Irish import Johannes Vermeer go one better from its stellar Caulfield Guineas performance?

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2017 Caulfield Cup betting

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Humidor form

Humidor
Can Humidor get back to its Makybe Diva Stakes best?

After the horse’s brilliant win in the Makybe Diva Stakes, Humidor sky-rocketed to the head of betting markets for both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup.

Following a questionable run against Winx in the Group One Turnbull Stakes however, and many of the horse’s admirers have decided to jump off.

Why though? Because Humidor lost to the best horse in the world?

We looked at the Turnbull Stakes run as a Caulfield Cup tune up, and given the horse rounded out the placings after looking like finishing last at the 1000m mark, the third-placed finish was an incredible effort.

Humidor is paying $2.42 to finish ahead of Johannes Vermeer at Sportsbet

Johannes Vermeer form

Irish galloper Johannes Vermeer was a bit of an afterthought in this year’s Caulfield Guineas as a $31 outsider, but after finishing a neck away from the winner Galio Chop, the bookies tightened the odds significantly on the five-year-old.

Is the overseas form strong enough to warrant the favouritism heading into Saturday’s feature?

Johannes Vermeer was a stylish winner of the Group Three International Stakes in Ireland back in July, but before that the horse had failed to win since November of 2015. Prior to coming to Australia the Irish import also finished a disappointing second in the Group Three Ballyroan Stakes after jumping as a $1.80 favourite.

Is the horse just another over-hyped international raider? We will find out Saturday.

Johannes Vermeer is paying $1.44 to finish ahead of Humidor at Sportsbet

Humidor vs. Johannes Vermeer betting tip

Had the market for this head-to-head battle been in place three weeks ago, we dare say the odds would be reversed – but that is what one run can do to a horse.

Johannes Vermeer’s status rose significantly after the Guineas run, while Humidor lost some sheen following the third placing in an unusually weak Group One Turnbull Stakes field.

Let’s get one thing straight though, Humidor end-game was always the Cup and not the Turnbull Stakes. Anyone who genuinely thought the horse could trouble Winx was mad irrespective, but we always viewed that race as a tune up to Caulfield’s pinnacle.

Humidor was set for this race and the form around Johannes Vermeer prior to the Caulfield debut was nothing to get excited about in our opinion. Forget the Turnbull Stakes horror show, Humidor is the real deal and we see the gun runner being right in the mix come the post.

We recommend taking the $2.42 at Sportsbet.

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