Caulfield Cup Day tips, value bets & quaddie picks | October 16

Race 1: Grand Handicap (1700m)

We do not need to wait too long at all for our best bet on Caulfield Cup Day, with the Archie Alexander-trained Eagles Crag looking a clear top pick. The five-year-old has won three of his four starts since arriving in Australia, with his only slip coming when finishing second behind Mr Brightside at Sandown on August 11. He saluted as a $1.45 hotpot at Benalla on September 26 when winning by two lengths after getting a beautiful run in transit, and from barrier six on Saturday he is set to get something similar. Look for Jordan Childs to have the son of Fastnet Rock settled in the first four, and when asked for an effort in the home straight, we anticipate he will put a healthy gap on his rivals.

Selections: 10-7-6-5

Race 2: 3YO Fillies Plate (1400m)

Lady Adelaide from the Patrick Payne yard looks to have plenty of ability and was a convincing maiden winner at Sale on October 6. Having settled three-wide off the pace on that day, the three-year-old Adelaide filly managed to put some 1.25 lengths on the rest in a race that looks to be a handy form reference. She draws barrier eight on Saturday, so Billy Egan will most likely have her settled in the second half of the field, but as she showed at Sale, she is armed with a nice turn of foot. Game Legend will make sure there is a genuine tempo throughout the 1400m event, so it could be set up nicely for someone like Lady Adelaide to finish over the top of the frontrunners.

Selections: 4-2-1-5

Race 3: Gothic Stakes (1400m)

The Listed Gothic Stakes is the first black-type event of the day for the three-year-old colts and geldings. With a lot of these having above-average ability, this is sure to be a strong form race going forward. We have settled on the Anthony & Sam Freedman-trained Extreme Flight, who comes off an impressive win at Sandown where he beat home the handy duo of Prix De Turn and Linas Legend. Despite drawing barrier 10 on Saturday, Damien Thornton will look to roll forward on the three-year-old son of Extreme Choice and find a spot in the moving line with cover. If he is afforded that, the likes of Sandy Prince and Corkscrew could be left vulnerable with 200m to go, setting it up for Extreme Flight to finish right over the top of them.

Selections: 3-10-4-7

Race 4: Ethereal Stakes (2000m)

The Group 3 Ethereal Stakes has long been a strong form reference for three-year-old fillies on a VRC Oaks path. That looks to be the plan for one of our better bets on the program in Kapalua Sunset, who rocketed into Oaks calculations following a dominant seven-length victory at Kyneton on September 21. The Danny O’Brien-trained Tavistock filly was made to work early when travelling three-wide with no cover, but she still had plenty left in the tank, because with 400m to go she kicked clear of her rivals in the 1875m maiden event. Brett Prebble sticks on board, and from barrier five Kapalua Sunset is sure to gain an economical run in transit. She should prove too classy for this field, with a few of these finding winning form hard to come by at the moment.

Selections: 10-3-1-4

Race 5: Caulfield Classic (2000m)

The Group 3 Caulfield Classic is another strong form reference for a big race during the Melbourne Cup Carnival, this time for the VRC Derby. However, despite the likes of Gunstock and Gundec going around in this, we expect the lone filly in the race, El Patroness, to continue on her winning ways following her win in the Listed Super Impose Stakes against a similar field to this. She makes her own luck up on speed, so the wide draw in barrier 13 should be no issue for her on Saturday. It took a great front-running steer from Brett Prebble to take out the Super Impose, and if the duo can replicate that performance here, then they will be hard to beat. The $10 quote is value that we are finding too hard to ignore.

Selections: 13-6-2-1

Race 6: Moonga Stakes (1400m)

The Daniel Bowman-trained Begood Toya Mother was back to somewhere near his best when finishing second behind Chaillot in the Listed Testa Rossa Stakes at Sandown on September 25. The now seven-year-old Group 1 winner returns to the Caulfield 1400m, a track and distance that he has two wins at. Having settled up on speed in the Testa Rossa, he looked to have things sewn up with 200m to go before Chaillot produced a barnstorming turn of foot to blouse him on the line. From barrier three under the careful hands of Daniel Moor, expect to see him to take a sit off the hot speed that Buffalo River will set. He hasn’t won in over two years, but he may not get a better chance than this.

Selections: 7-1-8-4

Race 7: Tristarc Stakes (1400m)

If we are confident of the chances of Begood Toya Mother in the previous race, then the Archie Alexander-trained Chaillot has to be a massive winning chance. Despite the drop in grade for the classy Colette and her proven wet-track form, the query is whether the Godolphin galloper has the same will to win as she once did. Chaillot clearly has that and is armed with one of the best turns of foot in the country, and considering she has three wins from three starts at 1400m, we expect the Testa Rossa mare to be too hard to hold out. She has a win on Soft going next to her name, while backmarkers have fared well on the Caulfield track in recent weeks. In the field of 10 she will not be too far from the speed, and we expect Declan Bates to have her fighting out the finish.

Selections: 4-2-1-7

Race 8: Alinghi Stakes (1100m)

In the Listed Alinghi Stakes, we have opted to side with the Anthony Chibnall-trained Rainbiel following a third-place finish behind Lombardo at Moonee Valley on September 24. Having sustained a long run from the rear of the field, the four-year-old mare was arguably the best of the beaten brigade, with Lombardo subsequently coming out and winning again. Having not missed the frame from four starts at 1100m, the daughter of Toronado clearly relishes the 1100m, and from barrier four she is bound to get an economical run in transit. She can handle all conditions and offers great value at $13 in a wide-open edition of the Alinghi.

Selections: 13-6-4-10

Race 9: Caulfield Cup (2400m)

The Caulfield Cup is the first of the three big races of the 2021 Melbourne Spring Carnival, and it is hard to see how Incentivise gets beaten. Despite drawing the carpark (20), he should still prove too classy for a field that lacks the depth of years gone by. He will need a touch of luck from the wide gate, but as long he does not get trapped six-wide in the running he should be adding the Caulfield Cup to his Group 1 wins in the Makybe Diva Stakes and Turnbull Stakes. Look for the Melbourne Cup fancy to lead the field up and kick clear on the home turn.

Selections: 2-10-4-12

See our full runner-by-runner preview of the Group 1 Caulfield Cup

Race 10: Caulfield Sprint (1000m)

The Group 2 Caulfield Sprint sees the highly anticipate return of Enthaar, who is set to resume off an eight-month spell. The pre-post Blue Diamond Stakes favourite from earlier in the year is clearly a horse with plenty of potential and on her day has plenty of speed under that bonnet of hers. She weakened over the final 100m in the Blue Diamond, but prior to that she was undefeated from two starts, including a win at the Caulfield 1000m when putting some 2.25 lengths on Ingratiating. She will roll forward from barrier 10, and if she is anywhere near her best, she will be simply too hard to run down in what looks to be a wide-open Caulfield Sprint.

Selections: 11-3-10-9