2021 Tancred Stakes runner-by-runner betting guide | Rosehill

Toffee Tongue

What Tancred Stakes
Where Rosehill Gardens Racecourse – James Ruse Dr, Rosehill NSW 2142
When Saturday, April 03, 2021 | 4:35pm AEDT | Race 7
Prizemoney $1,500,000
Distance 2400m
Status Group 1
Race Conditions Standard Weight for Age, Three-Years-Old and Upwards
2020 Winner Verry Ellegant – 56.5kg (6) | Jockey: James McDonald | Trainer: Chris Waller

The $1.5 million Tancred Stakes has attracted a bumper field of 14, with the Group 1 event set to be run over 2400m at Rosehill on Saturday. It is a wide open betting affair, with Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet the $5.50 favourite, just ahead of Kiwi super-mare Melody Belle at $6. Toffee Tongue, Angel of Truth and Spirit Ridge round out those runners in single figures. Run under weight-for-age conditions, we can expect to see geldings Spirit Ridge and Angel of Truth go forward to take up the running, with possible speed from imports Southern France and Nickajack Cave.

1 – Sir Dragonet (1)

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | Jockey: Glen Boss (59kg)
The Maher & Eustace-trained 2020 Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet doesn’t look to have come on as well this campaign, finishing seventh on an unsuitable dry track first-up, before finishing seven and a half lengths off Mugatoo in the All Star Mile. He got his suitable Soft 7 last time out at this track in the Ranvet Stakes just seven days ago and finished a credible fourth to heavyweights Verry Elleegant and Addeybb. That form looks good enough, but he will have to be on his A-game. The class of the field outside the Kiwi mare.

2 – Mirage Dancer (4)

Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | Jockey: Damien Oliver (59kg)
This seven-year-old entire won the Group 1 Metropolitan over this distance in the Spring at Randwick and resumed this time in with a soft run in the Blamey at Flemington, before sharply improving in the Sky High three weeks ago over 2000m. Stepping out to a mile and a half will be right up this horse’s alley, and if the track stays dry it will suit. Damien Oliver can get the best out of him third-up.

3 – The Chosen One (14)

Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman | Jockey: Hugh Bowman (59kg)
The Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman-trained stayer was a bit of a surprise packet in the Spring, running third in the Caulfield Cup, before backing it up with a fourth in the Lexus Melbourne Cup. The son of Savabeel has now had two runs back; one in New Zealand when second at Group 1 level in the Herbie Dyke, and one in the Sky High when beaten only two lengths. He tends to catch a case of second-up syndrome every campaign, so we are happy to ignore that last run. He will be handy in the run from the outside alley and can be strong late under Hugh Bowman.

4 – Southern France (9)

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | Jockey: Mark Zahra (59kg)
This son of Galileo was an Irish St Leger place getter before coming to Australia, and outside of winning the Group 3 Sandown Classic in 2019, he hasn’t fired a shot on our shores. The six-year-old has had just the one run since finishing last in this race 12-months ago but wasn’t good enough on that occasion.

5 – Sound (8)

Trainer: Michael Moroney | Jockey: Craig Williams (59kg)
Sound replicated Southern France’s heroics in the Sandown Classic by winning the 2020 edition under Jamie Kah. He has since finished in the placings in both the Avondale Cup and Auckland Cup back on his home shores which should set him up nicely for this. Craig Williams will do the steering too which is a plus.

6 – Spirit Ridge (6)

Trainer: Mark Newnham | Jockey: Robbie Dolan (59kg)
This Mark Newnham-trained gelding looks the likely leader in the race under Robbie Dolan from barrier six. He won both the Summer Cup and January Cup over 2000m at Randwick in his second Australian campaign, so he clearly has the ability and has settled in well. Just not sure he should be single figures in his first Group 1 test; although he was only nosed out in the Group 3 Sky High Stakes last time out.

7 – Chapada (7)

Trainer: Michael Moroney | Jockey: Tim Clark (59kg)
Michael Moroney saddles up both Sound and Chapada in this Group 1 on Saturday, with both geldings likely vying for spots in the Sydney Cup on April 17. The five-year-old son of Bullet Train ran third in this year’s Australian Cup beaten only a length by Homesman and was a Herbert Power winner over this trip in the Spring. Needs to go to another level, but is racing well.

8 – Nickajack Cave (11)

Trainer: Peter G Moody | Jockey: Luke Nolen (59kg)
Think we have a bit of a reason to be excited about this Peter Moody-trained import. Nickajack Cave beat Melbourne Cup winner Twilight Payment two starts back by a comfortable one and a half lengths at Leopardstown over 2800m. He then won seven weeks later over 2400m, with 61.5kg at Group 3 level, so the 59kg on Saturday should be a breeze. Luke Nolen has gone up for the ride and he has drawn to cross over and settle in the first few. We’re looking forward to seeing this bloke step out at last.

9 – Angel of Truth (5)

Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes | Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy (59kg)
This Team Hawkes-trained gelding won the Tulloch Stakes on this day two years ago, en route to winning the ATC Derby seven days later. He finishes ten lengths off Verry Elleegant 12 months ago, but looks to have come back very well this prep; finishing fifth in the Australian Cup two back and third in the Ranvet Stakes in what was a tough display from the front. McEvoy has the ride and he is rock-hard fit for this. Right in the mix.

10 – Shraaoh (3)

Trainer: Chris Waller | Jockey: Brenton Avdulla (59kg)
The 2019 Sydney Cup winner missed the Spring due to injury but looks to have come back in good order with a solid fifth to Toffee Tongue in the Sky High. Up to a mile and a half will be to this eight-year-old’s liking, but we just want to see him one more time.

11 – Melody Belle (12)

Trainer: Jamie Richards | Jockey: James McDonald (57kg)
If there has ever been a chink in the armour of this $4M dollar earner from across the Tasman, it is Sydney. This 14-time Group 1 winning mare has had six goes in Sydney and has only managed a fourth placing, in last year’s Doncaster Mile behind Nettoyer, Star of the Seas and Brandenburg. She is yet to race over 2400m in 38 career starts, but savaged the line over 2000m last time out to give the stable confidence ahead of Saturday. If the cream rises to the top, she will be winning this. Sydney is her kryptonite though.

12 – She’s Ideel (10)

Trainer: Bjorn Baker | Jockey: Jason Collett (57kg)
Well look away now if you backed this Dundeel mare last weekend. The five-year-old Bjorn Baker-trained mare was heavily backed into near even money in the Group 3 Epona Stakes on Saturday and just never got a fair crack at them. She managed to get a sniff late and flashed home into third though. This is her best trip and she is fit enough to be competitive. Does she have the class?

13 – Toffee Tongue (2)

Trainer: Chris Waller | Jockey: Tom Marquand (56.5kg)
Chris Waller’s mare Toffee Tongue has won just the two career starts but amassed $750,000 in prizemoney thanks to a maiden win in the SA Oaks and a last start victory in the Group 3 Sky High Stakes. Up to 2400m will be perfect for this Tavistock mare who will be aided by Tom Marquand again from barrier two. She handles all conditions and was really strong late three weeks ago to suggest she is ready for this. One of the leading chances.

14 – Miami Bound (13)

Trainer: Danny O’Brien | Jockey: Ms Rachel King (56.5kg)
To round out the field, it is the 2019 VRC Oaks winner Miami Bound. The Danny O’Brien trained four-year-old ran a slashing seventh in the Australian Cup two starts back on an unsuitable dry track off a slow tempo which made us think she would be right on track for this. She was a bit disappointing in the Ranvet however, finishing eight lengths off Verry Elleegant despite being on her favoured wet ground. She needs it heavy to be competitive in this.

Best bets for 2021 Tancred Stakes

$100 betting strategy
$25 each way Toffee Tongue
$15 each way Nickajack Cave
$20 boxed trifecta 1-3-8-9-11-13


Tancred Stakes Betting & Odds

[rmOC_events_list event_ids=1365113_07]

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