2021 Hawkesbury Guineas tips & best odds | Hawkesbury, Race 7

What 2021 Hawkesbury Guineas
Where Hawkesbury Racecourse – Racecourse Rd, Clarendon NSW 2756
When Saturday, May 01, 2021 | 3:25pm AEST | Race 7
Prizemoney $200,000
Distance 1400m
Status Group 3
Race Conditions Set Weights plus Penalties | Three-Years-Old
2020 Winner Dawn Passage (10) – 57kg | Jockey: Adam Hyeronimus | Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

The 2021 Hawkesbury Guineas has attracted a field of 10 after the scratching of Holyfield who will contest the Queensland Guineas at Eagle Farm instead. The Group 3 feature has a prize purse of $200,000 and that is reflected in the quality of runners that have accepted, with Ellsberg ($2.20) the clear standout here ahead of Exoboom ($6.50 with top racing bookmakers) and Rainbow Connection ($7). Over the 1400m, expect to see the favourite lead, while Onchao and Calgary Queen should be forward with Exoboom coming over from the deep.


There is no reason why Ellsberg shouldn’t be winning this after an all the way win in the South Pacific Stakes at Randwick a fortnight ago on April 17. The son of Spill The Beans has won three of his six starts and placed in the other three behind a couple of handy ones. His winning time was only a 0.05s slower than the Provincial Championship Final which is very slick, given he lead all of the way and put them away by three lengths. Tim Clark stays aboard and from barrier four he should find the front, dictate terms again and be too hard to catch.


If you have read our Queensland Guineas preview, you’ll know that we rate the form out of the South Pacific Stakes having tipped Private Eye and Kukeracha, as well as Ellsberg on top in this, so it leaves us with Rainbow Connection as the danger to the favourite here. The Matt Dunn-trained filly is a half sister to one of the world’s best racehorses in Golden Sixty (who has dominated Hong Kong racing recently), and she demonstrated her class on debut when winning on the Randwick-Kensington track by two and a half lengths. She came from near last in her most recent run and chased strongly into third. Drawn wide again, we will likely see her out the back and running home strongly for Jason Collett.


Aim was a forgive run last start behind Wild Ruler and Isotope in the Arrowfield Sprint at Group 2 level over 1200m after getting a long way out of his ground. The last time we saw him at 1400m, he won the Gold Coast Magic Millions 3YO Guineas in good fashion, so we are confident he can improve up in trip on Saturday. The Peter & Paul Snowden-trained gelding clearly has the best form on paper coming into this race, it is just a matter of where he can get to from the outside alley under Nash Rawiller. He is a big price though.


Best bet for 2021 Hawkesbury Stakes

$100 betting strategy
$80 win Ellsberg
$20 win Rainbow Connection

Hawkesbury Stakes odds comparison

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