THE $1.5 million Group 1 Victoria Derby kicks off the first of four Melbourne Cup carnival meetings at Flemington.
Run over 2500m, the Derby is the premier staying contest for three-year-olds in Victoria and although we’ve seen better fields in recent years, punters are getting great value with bookmakers this time around.
Punters will enjoy seeing a $5 favourite in what should be a wide open race and we have free tips, form and updated odds for the Flemington feature this Saturday.
Neds.com.au already has odds up for the Derby so sign up and grab the early value on offer.
2017 Victoria Derby betting
Victoria Derby top pick – Weather With You
Weather With You has been set for the Victoria Derby from day one and it secured its position in the field when winning last start.
The Baker/Forsman-trained New Zealand gelding is looking to continue the hot run of age-group success for Kiwi runners and its Geelong Classic win showed its true potential.
Winning over 2200m was a good indication of his staying talent and it has shown the ability to sit on the pace and come from behind. Last start at Geelong he showed his ability to sit on a genuine tempo and kick strongly off the bend.
Prior to that it had been settling off the pace and running into the race too late, so expect jockey Mark Zahra to be forward out of the barriers once again.
There is value in the $7.50 price at Neds.com.au and the $2.60 to place is certainly worth entertaining.
Victoria Derby value tip – Ocean’s Fourteen
Ocean’s Fourteen is a wonderfully-bred New Zealand colt which ran second behind Weather With You in the Geelong Classic.
The Aaron Purcell-trained three-year-old is by Ocean Park and out of quality mare Ruud Van Slaats, which won plenty of highly-graded races in New Zealand.
There was plenty of late betting support at Geelong last start which is a good sign moving forward and it made up stacks up ground to get within a neck of the winner.
It’s breeding suggests the increase in distance is going to suit perfectly and we don’t think he should be paying $14 here after touching $12 at one stage in the market.
Luke Nolen will likely look to settle midfield from barrier seven and work into the race at the top of the straight.
Victoria Derby upset chance – Greycliffe
Greycliffe is getting some support in the betting at $13 and it’s not one of the main winning chances, but it should be.
The Tavistock colt is one of the few horses in this race which has won over the staying distance and it couldn’t have been a more-impressive performance at Seymour last start.
After winning over 1400m and placing over the mile earlier this season, Greycliffe was able to extend out to the 2200m at Seymour last start and put four lengths on its rivals. That form is a touch below what it will be facing this Saturday, but it should be respected none-the-less.
The breeding suggests it could be a Melbourne Cup hope in a couple of years so watch this runner with interest.
Victoria Derby first four tips
One of the best things about the Melbourne Cup carnival is the big betting pools and punters can make plenty of money when landing a first four.
The Derby pool should be massive this Saturday and with the value odds on offer, it should give punters a handy return.
We’ve list our top five selections which punters can box up and hopefully take the bookmakers to the cleaners.
1st – Weather With You ($7.50)
2nd – Ace High ($5)
3rd – Ocean’s Fourteen ($14)
4th – Greycliffe ($13 at Sportsbet)
5th – Main Stage ($5)