The Ingham race preview & best bets | Saturday 10/12/2022

December 7, 2022 5:34 pm.

The Ingham betting tips

What	The Ingham 2022
Where	Royal Randwick Racecourse – Alison Rd, Randwick NSW 2031
When	Saturday, December 10, 2022 \| 4:40pm AEDT \| Race 8
Prizemoney	$2,000,000
Distance	1600m
Status	Group 2
Conditions	Handicap \| 3yo and up
2021 Winner	Brutality \| T: Joseph Pride \| J: Regan Bayliss (53kg)
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The 2022 edition of The Ingham, formerly known as the Villiers Stakes, is the time-honoured classic Group 2 1600m race at Randwick for a free ticket into 2023 Doncaster Mile. We’ve got a full field of acceptances with 20 runners (plus four emergencies) set to compete in this year’s wide-open affair.

The Randwick track is currently listed as a Soft 5 for raceday; however, we’ve got plenty of drying days ahead, so we’re doing the form for a Good 4 for Saturday afternoon. The rail sits in the true position for the entire circuit, so hopefully it’ll be strictly tempo-related as we shouldn’t see any too much track bias.

Online bookmakers have had the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained Nugget as the favourite pre-barrier draw, and despite being second emergency with final fields in place, he still holds the favour of punters at around $3.50. Huetor ($6.50) holds the second line of betting, while defending champ Brutality ($7.50) and The Gong winner Riodini ($8.50) have also seen plenty of early support. The chances don’t end there, though; with a stacked field, you’re sure to be getting a good price around any galloper, including double-figure chances Diamil ($14) and Dajraan ($9.50).

The speed map looks a tricky one with so many key chances drawn wide; however, Surf Dancer and Dajraan for the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott yard look the obvious leaders and will press forward, while first-up Spirit Ridge (barrier two) and Wild Planet (barrier 13) should be right there as well. Provided Nugget gets a start, you’d imagine he will try to slot in midfield along with Huetor, Riodini, Kirwan’s Lane and Diamil, just to name a few. From the outside gates you’d expect Brutality, Sunshine Rising and Longvillers to be tracking back so as to not get cast wide without cover throughout.

Continue reading for HorseBetting’s top selections and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 The Ingham.

We’ve landed with the John O’Shea-trained Diamil for the feature on Saturday afternoon. He’s been strong this preparation, winning two starts back at Randwick when scoring by 0.3 lengths on October 22. He was soft to the line when beating race rival Purple Sector on that occasion before heading to The Five Diamonds over the 1800m, which just saw out this four-year-old gelding by Awtaad. He’s had a lovely tickover trial behind Eleven Eleven and Huetor as well before stepping back to his favoured track and distance, and we thought his work was just as impressive as the market second elect. Diamil looks a great price, so we’re happy to be siding with Tommy Berry’s mount.

The Chris Waller-trained New Mandate looks the one over the odds in this race as another horse coming from The Five Diamonds behind Group 1 winner Ellsberg. He steps back down to the mile after that effort — same as Diamil — but New Mandate has had an eye-catching trial since that performance on November 29 when winning by 2.7 lengths at Canterbury. He’s got plenty of ability and his European form jumps off the page, so we can’t let this four-year-old go around without something on at the each-way quote. Jason Collett takes the reins here after James McDonald rode him in the trial, so you’d think the world’s best hoop would’ve taken the ride if available. New Mandate sit somewhere midfield as well, so look for him to be the flashing light turning for home.

Race favourite Nugget deserves all the respect in the world, but being the second emergency, we find it hard to justify tipping him on top. He’s going outstanding for trainers Maher and Eustace since arriving from Europe, and his win at Kembla Grange on November 19 was nothing short of exceptional, but there’s not much on offer in terms of price. If he does make the field, you’ve got to include in your multiples and exotic plays; however, we’re happy to let him go around without something on.

Sunshine Rising is another one that we would’ve been keen to back, provided he drew any kind of barrier. He was cast three wide without cover the entire trip in the Festival Stakes last start before powering to the line to find a top-four position. Now he draws barrier 23, and even after scratchings it looks hard for this eight-year-old to find any cover again. If he does, though, he looks another winning hope in a wide-open affair.