The Follow Files: Sweet Thomas on track for Brisbane Cup

HorseBetting blackbook tips

A bumper 10-race card was held at Eagle Farm on Saturday, with a number of horses running some eye-catching races in preparation for their grand final assignments over the next month. These are the ones we’re keeping an eye on.


Eagle Farm | Track: Good 4 (Good 3 after R8) | Rail: True

Race 1: Group 2 The Roses (2100m) | Time: 2:11.40

  • Horse to follow: SMIRK (3rd)

The main and final lead up to this Saturday’s Queensland Oaks (2100m) was contested over 2100m at Eagle Farm, and if the race were an extra 100m, we are confident SMIRK would have won it. The Chris Waller-trained filly had a great run in transit following eventual winner Barb Raider for most of the race, but James McDonald had to come wide in the straight to get a run, which ultimately cost her a length or two before she surged to run third – going down by less than half a length.

When to bet: Smirk’s run on Saturday was enough to suggest she is right on track for the Oaks, so we will be following up again with her in five days’ time.

Race 2: Group 3 Premier’s Cup (2400m) | Time: 2:28.99R

  • Horse to follow: SWEET THOMAS (2nd)

SWEET THOMAS does not win out of turn, so he is a somewhat risky addition to our blackbook, but his best form is over 3200m and he looks right on track for the Brisbane Cup (3200m) on Saturday week. The Matthew Smith-trained gelding ran third in that race 12 months ago behind Knights Order, who won the Sydney Cup this year. The fact that this son of Dylan Thomas hit the line so strongly over 2400m on Saturday on an unsuitable dry track suggests he is going extremely well this time in and has done everything right in preparation for his grand final in the next fortnight.

When to bet: We are likely to see Sweet Thomas next up in the Brisbane Cup on June 11. He can go one or two spots better than last year this time around.
 

Race 3: Group 3 Lord Mayor’s Cup (1800m) | Time: 1:50.99

  • Horse to follow: BALLISTIC BOY (2nd)

We mentioned in our preview for Saturday’s racing that Ballistic Boy could be worth a bet at each-way odds – and he didn’t let anyone down who took that advice, finishing strongly into second on the back of a moderate tempo set by the eventual winner. That was second-up on Saturday, so next start he should really be hitting his straps when he likely lines up in the $1.2 million Q22 over 2200m. The Chris Anderson-trained galloper loves Eagle Farm and he is clearly going well this time in.

When to bet: We expect Anderson will target the Q22 with his in-form stayer, and the current odds of $51 look very appealing. The horse is fit and in-form, so we can follow with some confidence.
 


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