The Follow Files: Cape Breton, Ashgrove impress in Brisbane

HorseBetting blackbook tips

While All Aged Stakes Day didn’t have the fairytale of Fireburn winning the Triple Crown, nor Tofane going out on a high, we got some pretty good looks at a few horses who are on track for the upcoming Adelaide and Brisbane carnivals. The team at The Follow Files have found you two horses to keep an eye on from the Eagle Farm meeting, and one winner that we can follow from Caulfield.

Caulfield | Track: Good 4 | Rail: +3m Entire Course

Race 4: Listed Galilee Series Final (2400m) | Time: 2:29.76

  • Horse to follow: MAMOUNIA (1st)

James Cummings and Jamie Kah combined in the Galilee Series Final on Saturday with three-year-old filly MAMOUNIA. The daughter of Medaglia D’oro started a well-tried $2.50 favourite with online bookmakers, and despite a few dicey moments in the run and in the concluding stages, she got the job done by three-quarters of a length. Prior to that, the filly was beaten six lengths when third in the Group 3 Adrian Knox Stakes in Sydney on a Heavy 9, so she appeared to relish getting back onto a Good 4 on Saturday and out in trip.

When to bet: We can follow her to either the Australasian Oaks (2000m), SA Fillies’ Classic (2500m) or Queensland Oaks (2200m), depending on where she heads.

Eagle Farm | Track: Good 4 | Rail: +3m Entire Course

Race 7: Listed Daybreak Lover (1400m) | Time: 1:22.61

  • Horse to follow: CAPE BRETON (4th)

We are going to add two horses from this same race into our blackbook this week, but they’ve both done enough to warrant a full spiel each. Starting off with the fourth-placegetter CAPE BRETON, the Chris Waller-trained three-year-old was absolutely bolting coming into the turn, but he got held up behind a few tiring horses which stunted his momentum. It wasn’t until very late that the son of Vancouver saw clear galloping room and he was able to sprint quickly under Jim Byrne to run fourth, 3.6 lengths off Flying Crazy.

When to bet: He will have to be good to turn the tables on Flying Crazy and Green Belt in the Queensland Guineas (1600m), but we don’t think he really has to improve all that much now that he’s had the Eagle Farm run. Out over a bit further and drawn a nicer gate, he can be closer in the run and right in winning contention.

Race 7: Listed Daybreak Lover (1400m) | Time: 1:22.61

  • Horse to follow: ASHGROVE (5th)

Only three-tenths of a length separated Cape Breton and ASHGROVE, and while the former was pulling away the last little bit, they both had about as much luck as each other from the 400m to the 200m. Ashgrove is on a Queensland Derby path, so he was entitled to be outsprinted first-up over 1400m in our view. The horse has always shown ability and he is in the right stable (Tony Gollan) to get to his Group 1 Grand Final.

When to bet: Wait for Ashgrove to get out over a little bit further – the Rough Habit Plate (2000m) looks ideal – and then back him. He looks to have come back really well this time in.

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