Sydney Cup runner-by-runner betting preview | April 17, 2021

Southern France

What 2021 Sydney Cup
Where Royal Randwick Racecourse – Alison Rd, Randwick NSW 2031
When Saturday, April 17, 2021 | 3:05pm AEST | Race 7
Prizemoney $2,000,000
Distance 3200m
Status Group 1
Race Conditions Handicap – 3YO+
2020 Winner Etah James | Jockey: G Boss | Trainer: C Maher & D Eustace

One of the feature races on Day 2 of The Championships at Royal Randwick is the $2m Sydney Cup (3200m). A field of 16 stayers has been assembled, with half of that coming through the Tancred Stakes a fortnight ago, while the Manion Cup has produced the two favourites for the race. Realm Of Flowers and Favourite Moon ran the quinella in the Manion Cup on March 27th and sit at $6 apiece at the top of the market, ahead of Southern France at $7.50 and Tancred runner-up She’s Ideel at $8. There will be a bit of pace in the race with Spirit Ridge, Favourite Moon, Sacramento and Hush Writer all natural leaders, while Quick Thinker and Good Idea are likely to be right there too. Our New South Wales form analyst has previewed every runner in the 2021 Sydney Cup and will show you how they’re spending $100 on the race.


2021 Sydney Cup runners & form guide

1 – The Chosen One (16)

T: M Baker & A Forsman – J: H Bowman – 56kg

Kiwi raider The Chosen One ran second in this race last year and then went on to finish fourth in the Melbourne Cup at this same distance, so he is a deserving top weight. Jumping from the outside alley under Hugh Bowman does make it tough, and he faded to beat only three home in the Tancred Stakes last start. Don’t think he is going well enough, but he gets to a suitable trip.

2 – Southern France (5)

T: C Maher & D Eustace – J: J McDonald – 55kg

Southern France has only had two runs in 12 months, but his effort in the Tancred last start was the perfect lead up to a 3200m race; the sort of run you like to see in a Caulfield Cup before the first Tuesday in November. He has drawn beautifully in barrier five and gets the in-form James McDonald aboard. The 3200m will be no worries; it’s just a question of whether he needed one more run before Saturday.

3 – Sound (12)

T: M Moroney – J: B Avdulla – 54kg

Eight-year-old Sound is one horse who will be very fit after finishing third in the Auckland Cup at the two miles and then knocking up late in the Tancred Stakes last start. Back up to 3200m is going to be advantageous, but if he has to work early, it could spell trouble late. Not for us.

4 – Quick Thinker (14)

T: M Baker & A Forsman – J: J Collett – 53kg

ATC Derby winner Quick Thinker got back in the winner’s circle last Saturday in the Chairman’s Quality over 2600m. The son of So You Think doesn’t win out of turn, but the victory on Saturday was good and he should appreciate stepping out to the two miles. We can’t have him, but he will definitely see out the trip.

5 – Chapada (6)

T: M Moroney – J: G Boss – 52kg

The second of Mike Moroney’s runners is five-year-old gelding, Chapada. The son of Bullet Train ran a slashing third in the Group 1 Australian Cup three starts back over 2000m, and has put in good runs his next two as he stepped out to 2400m. He needs to improve again, but he too will appreciate 3200m.

6 – Shraaoh (11)

T: C Waller – J: J Ford – 52kg

Shraaoh won this race two years ago and gets in light with just 52kg. He is not the same horse he was in 2019 and is coming off a 14-length last in the Tancred Stakes last time out. It would be a massive shock to see him beat many of these home.

7 – Miami Bound (10)

T: D O’Brien – J: C Williams – 51.5kg

Miami Bound has a sense of timing about her this campaign and looks ready to peak fifth up. She was one of the runs of the race in the Australian Cup three back despite finishing seventh and then ran brilliantly late in the Tancred to grab third. Having drawn well in barrier 10, this four-year-old will be running on strongly. The wetter, the better for her.

8 – Spirit Ridge (2)

T: M Newnham – J: R Dolan – 51.5kg

Spirit Ridge is in really well at the weights after finishing fifth in the Tancred Stakes last start. Hr drops 7.5kg and has drawn perfectly in barrier two, as he will go forward and try to lead this field all of the way. He carries plenty of residual fitness and meets Bart Cummings’ criteria of 10,000m worth of race fitness required in this campaign to win a 3200m Group 1 handicap. He will give you a great sight.

9 – Hush Writer (15)

T: G Waterhouse & A Bott – J: T Clark – 51.5kg

This six-year-old gelding will go forward from the wide barrier under Tim Clark and give punters a sight. He has proved time and time again that he isn’t a Group 1 horse. This will be another of those times.

10 – Favourite Moon (3)

T: W Haggas – J: K McEvoy – 51.5kg

UK import Favourite Moon was good when winning the Manion Cup in his only Australian start three weeks ago. The four-year-old son of Sea The Moon has won three of his nine starts, with two of those coming over 2800m at Haydock and the other at his most recent start over 2400m. Drawn in barrier three, he will be in the box seat and will take some serious beating. Class?

11 – Rondinella (7)

T: J O’Shea – J: A Adkins – 50kg

Rondinella ran a much-improved second to Quick Thinker on Saturday in the Chairman’s Quality which would have given her the perfect lead into this weekend’s Cup. The Ocean Park mare has always shown staying potential as shown by her fourth in this race two years ago. She has had a much more solid campaign this time in and will get every chance from the good gate.

12 – She’s Ideel (4)

T: B Baker – J: R King – 50kg

Five-year-old mare She’s Ideel was a deadest certainty beaten two starts ago in the Group 3 Epona Stakes over 1900m and then ran second in the Group 1 Tancred Stakes on the seven-day backup. That run came under weight-for-age conditions, so she drops 7kg into this handicap event. By Dundeel out of an Anabaa mare, we know she will stay, and she has drawn to get every possible chance. With even luck, there is no reason why she can’t go close here.

13 – Realm Of Flowers (8)

T: A & S Freedman – J: D Thornton – 50kg

So You Think mare Realm Of Flowers was another good thing beaten last time out when going down by three-tenths of a length to Favourite Moon. Despite jumping from barrier six in the 12-horse field, she was caught three and four wide for the entire trip and failed to get cover at any stage yet still charged through the line to just miss. She probably should have won the Sandown Cup at this trip in the spring as well. She will love two miles, she gets a lovely gate and meets Favourite Moon 1.5kg better off than last time. She looks the winner.

14 – Sacramento (9)

T: G Waterhouse & A Bott – J: K O’Hara – 50kg

This gelding has been terrific this campaign, progressing through the grades nicely. He was winning races on his ear when he was allowed to roll along in front, but he has just found a couple better when ridden with a sit at his last few. From barrier nine and with the featherweight, he could take some catching if Kathy O’Hara lets him go.

15 – Good Idea (1)

T: P Stokes – J: B Thompson – 50kg

Good Idea gets in pretty well at the weights given he won the Adelaide Cup at this trip two starts back with 53kg and finished second in that same race last year behind King Of Leogrance. The six-year-old has drawn the inside alley under Ben Thompson, who knows the horse well and will try to be in the first six (or so we would assume). He needs to go to another level, but he will stay all day.

16 – Selino (13)

T: C Waller – J: R Stewart – 50kg

Selino put in a really nice Sydney Cup trial when fourth in the Chairman’s on Saturday after closing off nicely from the back. The five-year-old gelding has only won two races, but they came at 2900m and 3350m, so we know he will stay. Waller and Ron Stewart have a 12% winning strike rate together too which is handy.


2021 Sydney Cup betting tips

We found this one to be pretty well split into two halves; about half of these can win and half can’t. Realm Of Flowers goes on top; her last start was just too good to ignore despite losing, and we are confident the weight relief will see her go one better this time. Southern France will be chasing hard late and could be right on track to win this with McDonald in the saddle, while Spirit Ridge is the one they will have to catch.

$100 betting strategy
$65 win Realm Of Flowers
$20 win Southern France
$15 win Spirit Ridge

[rmOC_events_list event_ids=1366935_07]

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John Williams
John Williams
2 years ago

Why not give the number of races since a horses last spell?