Randwick race-by-race preview & best bets | Saturday, February 11

Race 1: PIERRO 2YO PLATE (1100M)

Don Corleone looks a fair favourite in the opener; however the $1.75 on offer with online bookmakers is too short for us, so we’ll be looking at Cafe Millennium to kick off the Randwick card on the each-way basis. He’s one of two horses on debut here and comes out of the John O’Shea yard. He’s an impressive colt out of Not A Single Doubt and looks to be ready to do something in this first up assignment. He won a trial at Hawkesbury 15-weeks ago before being put away and resumes after another quiet trial at Warwick Farm on January 30. He was ridden soft at the back and peeled out three-wide hitting the line strongly with only a minor effort asked of him. “Aussie Tom” Marquand takes the reins here and draws just to the outside of the short-priced favourite and we’re hopeful he can just stalk Don Corleone everywhere he goes. The speed should be on here and it’ll suit Cafe Millennium nicely who only needs to find the frame from back in the field for a nice return compared to the odds on pop.

• 9

  CAFE MILLENNIUM

  Odds at Bet365

• 2

  DON CORLEONE

  Odds at Neds

• 12

  EMPRESS OF WONDER

  Odds at Bet365

• 10

  REMEDIES

  Odds at Neds

Race 2: HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP (1800M)

Mr Severino has improved with two runs so far this time in and now finds a winnable highway race for connections. The step up in trip on Saturday to 1800m looks ideal for this Magnus gelding, as he should find a perfect position behind the tempo. He gets gate four here and should get on the back of the likely leader and favourite, King Of Spade, who will look to cross and find the rail to lead from barrier 14. Kerrin McEvoy was on last start and elects to stick after an eye-catching effort behind Trooper Knuckle at Rosehill on January 14 and we think this could be correct form-line to take as Eastern Glow, who ran in behind our galloper has won since. Mr Severino just needs to jump clear from the barriers and should be right in this.

• 7

  MR SEVERINO

  Odds at Bet365

• 9

  SPITFIRE

  Odds at Neds

• 10

  THE HUNGARIAN

  Odds at Bet365

• 1

  SPADES

  Odds at Neds

Race 3: MIDWAY BM 72 HANDICAP (1000M)

This Saturday’s Midway is over the 1000m and is anyone’s race on paper with a stack of chances. We’ve landed with Another Cognac on top here though in a competitive contest. His previous effort behind Lucky Variety at Randwick on January 21 had plenty of merit when storming home from the back of the field after missing the start. He expertly weaved between gallopers and finished only 0.3 lengths off the winner and was unfortunate not to find the winners enclosure again. His win two back at Warwick Farm reads well for this too, going on to score by just under a length at Warwick Farm. He now gets in here with 54.5kg and with a likely strong tempo in this race, we can see Another Cognac flying over the top of his opposition again; however, this time going a few placings better to score. The race doesn’t stop there, but he looks the progressive galloper in this field, and we’ll side with him.

• 16

  ANOTHER COGNAC

  Odds at Bet365

• 6

  FUMIKO

  Odds at Neds

• 7

  HARD TO SAY

  Odds at Bet365

• 12

  HEADWALL

  Odds at Neds

Race 4: BM 88 HANDICAP (1600M)

Ciaron Maher & David Eustace don’t travel their horses for a holiday and we think Ascension is here to be mighty competitive back down in grade. His latest run behind Pounding at Moonee Valley was impressive in a BM100 and maps to be right in this BM88 affair. His win prior to that at Warrnambool in open company was a strong front-running performance as well, so whether they elect to lead or take a sit, we’ll leave that up to Brenton Avdulla, but regardless his runs rate well enough to win this. He’ll be forced to lug the top weight of 60.5kg, but we think he earns it in a a field full of horses that don’t love winning, while Ascension looks a line chaser. He’s a battling type that has seven wins on his resume and we think win number eight isn’t far away and he can find it on Saturday afternoon.

• 1

  ASCENSION

  Odds at Bet365

• 9

  KING RATEL

  Odds at Neds

• 10

  FRUMOS

  Odds at Bet365

• 2

  ATHABASCAN

  Odds at Neds

Race 5: Group 3 SOUTHERN CROSS STAKES (1200M)

We’re excited to see the return of Quantico in this year’s edition of the Southern Cross Stakes and if the rain stays away, looks an outstanding bet to us on the Randwick program. He’s coming off a 336-day spell but looks to be returning in top order for trainer John O’Shea, whose given this I Am Invincible gelding plenty of time off after a disappointing effort in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap. The preparation prior to that saw the best of Quantico when winning three races in a row, including a win at Listed level. Perhaps finding a Group 1 race all came a bit too soon for this lightly raced six-year-old and now after two impressive outings at the barrier trials, we’re keen to be with him despite the long break. Both his trials showed he’s fit and ready to go here and you’re getting a fair price to find out with online betting sites. Kerrin McEvoy takes the reins from a very soft gate and should find the one-by-one to be showing his turf scorching best on Saturday.

• 5

  QUANTICO

  Odds at Bet365

• 3

  GRAVINA

  Odds at Neds

• 10

  ESPIONA

  Odds at Bet365

• 8

  RANCH HAND

  Odds at Neds

Race 6: INGLIS MILLENNIUM (1100M)

It’s an epic edition of the Inglis Millennium with chances everywhere you look. Online bookmakers have Learning To Fly a short-priced favourite however, with Blanco De Blanc, Facile and Kundalini all finding their admirers in the market. Check out our best bets and $100 betting strategy for the race here.

Race 7: Group 2 LIGHT FINGERS STAKES (1200M)

All but one of the three-year-old fillies in this year’s edition of the Light Fingers Stakes are resuming from a break and it looks a tricky race to dissect with plenty of chances. With that said, we’ve defaulted to the favourite In Secret. She’s a superstar filly with the best credentials in the race after her last preparation culminated in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes on October 29 and winning in supreme fashion. She demoralised her opposition by two lengths going away and you tie her form through all the best three-year-old races. She ran a strong second behind Jacquinot in the Golden Rose and took out the Run to the Rose prior to that, evening going back to her first-up effort she only found one better in Zougotcha who had a fitness edge and isn’t in this race. She’s too good to not put on top, although she is short enough, with live chances like Sunshine In Paris and North Star Lass presenting nice options at a price. Nash Rawiller picks up the ride and so long as she sees daylight, you have to imagine she’ll take out this year’s edition of the Light Fingers.

• 1

  IN SECRET

  Odds at Bet365

• 11

  SUNSHINE IN PARIS

  Odds at Neds

• 6

  NORTH STAR LASS

  Odds at Bet365

• 5

  SHEEZA BELTER

  Odds at Neds

Race 8: Group 2 APOLLO STAKES (1400M)

Fangirl is the galloper over the odds to take on Anamoe first-up here in the Apollo Stakes. You only have to go back to her first-up performance last preparation in the Winx Stakes behind Anamoe to see this will be her chance to get the better of the Godolphin superstar. Fangirl finished a blistering second behind him on that occasion to be beaten 1.8 lengths on the line. Anamoe got the gun run in the Winx Stakes while Fangirl found trouble and hit the line well, we can’t say she would’ve beat him, but the margin would’ve seen a fighting go to the line. Anamoe is clearly the best horse in this race, but first-up after a misstep in the finale of his preparation has us worried about the $1.75 on offer with online bookmakers and we’d much prefer to take the $9 on the each way available for Fangirl. She should sit a lot closer in the running this time and she went to the paddock is terrific order beaten a lip in the Golden Eagle before spelling for Chris Waller. This is no indictment on Anamoe by any stretch of the imagination; it’s just an unbackable price that has us electing to side with Fangirl.

• 11

  FANGIRL

  Odds at Bet365

• 1

  ANAMOE

  Odds at Neds

• 9

  EL BODEGON

  Odds at Bet365

• 3

  LAWS OF INDICES

  Odds at Neds

Race 9: Group 3 TRISCAY STAKES (1200M)

We like the three horses at the top of the page in the Triscay Stakes; however, we’ve landed with Swats That for Ciaron Maher & David Eustace team. She looks to have all the best converging form-lines from her latest preparation, with runs behind Bobbie Lewis winner and Everest placegetter Private Eye before ending her preparation in disappointing fashion behind Vilana in The Hunter. The barrier trial prior to this first-up assignment is what’s really caught our eye though, she swung wide turning for home in the trial at Hawkesbury on January 24 and powered home under zero riding to score. Technically making it her first win in a very long time, even just a barrier trial win should give this daughter of Shamus Award a great deal of confidence. She gets the top weight here, but looks well placed by the team first-up and her best efforts look to come fresh off a break. $6 is fair enough with out and out winner Norwegian Bliss a clear and deserving favourite. Larkspur Run is another galloper we have plenty of time for, but Swats That goes on top and should get a solid run in behind a decent tempo, Last chance material is an understatement.

• 1

  SWATS THAT

  Odds at Bet365

• 3

  LARKSPUR RUN

  Odds at Neds

• 2

  NORWEGIAN BLISS

  Odds at Bet365

• 10

  BELLATRIX BLACK

  Odds at Neds

Race 10: BM 88 HANDICAP (1300M)

Waterford is a better horse than BM88 grade and he comes here first-up to make a statement this time in. He finished his campaign with a win on October 29 in BM78 company toying with his rivals to win going away by 1.3 lengths. He’s had five starts for four wins since arriving in Australia and Chris Waller has him going amazing. He’s had a lovely tick-over trial leading into this behind Kokoro, who has been a subsequent winner first-up as well. You can argue he’s better over a longer trip than 1300m, but we think it won’t matter on Saturday. James McDonald takes the reins and has drawn a very soft barrier to get a gun position and if he gets anywhere near striking distance, he can put them away nicely. He’s got bigger fish to fry later down the track; however, if he wants to be a Group horse going forward, he’ll won’t to be winning a race like this. He gets the best bet tag for the weekend and we’re confident when clear air, he’ll be extremely hard to beat.

• 4

  WATERFORD

  Odds at Bet365

• 8

  KANAZAWA

  Odds at Neds

• 1

  VRENELI

  Odds at Bet365

• 13

  THINK ABOUT IT

  Odds at Neds