Randwick betting tips & quaddie picks | Saturday, December 11
| What | Villiers Stakes Day 2021 |
| Where | Royal Randwick Racecourse – Alison Rd, Randwick NSW 2031 |
| When | Saturday, December 11, 2021 |
| First Race | 12:20pm AEDT |
| Feature Race | R8: Group 2 Villiers Classic (1600m) |
| Watch Live | |
HorseBetting’s New South Wales form analyst has taken a look at every race on Royal Randwick’s 10-part card on Saturday and brings you his best bets and quaddie numbers for the meeting. The track is currently a Soft 6, but there is rain forecast over the coming days, so we could see it get down to a Heavy. The rail is back in the true position and the first race is scheduled to jump at 12:20pm AEDT, with the featured Villiers Stakes due to go around at 4:40pm AEDT.
Race 1: Class 3 Highway (1000m)
In what is always a wide-open affair, the Highway Plate once again presents us with a troublesome way to start, but we are half-keen on one at double figures. London Gal, a four-year-old daughter of Sizzling, has had 10 starts for two wins and five minor placings, including a dominant 5.5-length win at Gunnedah last time out over 1100m. The Scott Collings-trained mare does drop back to 1000m in this race, but she should be superior with her toe in the ground. Drawn in barrier six, Tim Clark is going to look to lead on London Gal, which will make her hard to run down.
Selections: 15-13-1-22
Race 2: Benchmark 72 Midway Handicap (1600m)
Like the Highway, these Midway races don’t get much easier, although there is a handy galloper here. Travest has always shown plenty of potential without really putting it all together. The lightly raced five-year-old has had only 13 starts, winning three of those and placing on another three occasions including a last-start second to Divine Breath in a very similar race over 1400m. He goes out to 1600m, which is proven to work for him in the past, while the inside alley allows him to settle a touch closer in the run. Tommy Berry is in the saddle for Gregory Hickman, which has worked previously, while Berry and Travest have a good record together.
Selections: 1-3-4-9
Race 3: Benchmark 72 Handicap (1100m)
One of the better bets on the program comes up in this race as the Mark Newnham-trained Dragonstone looks to notch his third win from five career starts. This talented son of Mikki Isle won dominantly at Kembla Grange on November 20 over 1000m, cruising up to the leaders before sprinting sharply under the light weight. The three-year-old goes up in weight to 55kg – a 4kg rise from his last-start win – after Tyler Schiller’s claim, although he does go from a Benchmark 78 back to a 72, which he should find easier. Dragonstone looks a pretty classy conveyance, one that we are keen to follow over the summer months. Bacchanalia is the clear danger on class alone, while former Godolphin gallop Dickin Medal appears over the odds at $23.
Selections: 2-9-3-4
Race 4: Listed Christmas Cup (2400m)
The stayers get their chance over 2400m in the Listed Christmas Cup, a race that Chris Waller has won four times since 2010. He saddles up the top weight in Mightybeel, who has won three of his last five, although we are siding with one down on the weights in Deniliquin. Donning the famous colours of Dato Tan Chin Nam, the four-year-old son of Adelaide pulled off a miraculous win two starts ago over 1900m at Gosford before going to Newcastle, where he found the 2300m a touch too short as he motored home from the back for a narrow second. The John Thompson-trained gelding gets in with only 53kg under the in-form Brock Ryan, so he should get every chance to win again. The $23 seems generous in a race with little depth.
Selections: 8-4-1-2
Race 5: Listed Inglis Nursery (1000m)
The Inglis Nursery is restricted to two-year-olds over the 1000m trip, and while there are a couple of horses coming off a win, one who is coming off a runner-up effort is the race favourite, Boldinho. The Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained colt was gallant in defeat on debut at Caulfield when second to Ebhaar over 1000m in the Merson Cooper Stakes, where he was caught deep throughout without cover and still managed to hit the line. Hugh Bowman replaces John Allen on Saturday, while this son of Brazen Beau should get the gun run from barrier three behind the speedy Athletica. Boldinho looks a clear standout of the runners we have seen race. Mandalong Missile is a $101 chance, but that is definitely over the odds after a fast-finishing fourth last time out at Rosehill.
Selections: 2-1-4-12
Race 6: Fillies and Mares Benchmark 88 (1200m)
This is a tough little race. With only nine runners left after the scratching of Just Field, it is arguably the most wide-open event of the day. We are once again with the Maher & Eustace stable as they saddle up their grey mare Incredulous Dream. We were with this four-year-old last time out and she was only beaten by 1.5 lengths when second to Queen Bellissimo at Kembla Grange in a Fillies & Mares Benchmark 78 over 1200m. The daughter of Press Statement stays at the same trip but goes up 10 rating points on Saturday, although she drops 4.5kg and gets to keep Tommy Berry in the saddle. She has drawn a touch awkwardly in barrier seven, but her adaptable racing pattern will give Berry plenty of options from the get-go.
Selections: 3-7-4-5
Race 7: Listed Razor Sharp Handicap (1200m)
The opening leg of the quaddie is a ripper, with the likes of Magic Millions-bound Eleven Eleven, Snapdancer and Vulpine lining up over 1200m. While we are massive fans of top weight Eleven Eleven, he stinks it up at Randwick, where he has had five starts for no wins or placings, so we can’t be with him on Saturday. One horse who does run well at this track is John Thompson’s Dream Circle. The five-year-old stormed home late behind Vulpine in the Listed Starlight Stakes, beating home subsequent Listed winner Tambo’s Mate, which is very good form. The extra 100m will suit on Saturday, while barrier eight should see apprentice Tom Sherry stay out of trouble early on and let his mount’s finishing burst come to the fore.
Selections: 7-2-10-1
Race 8: Group 2 Villiers Stakes (1600m)
The feature race of the afternoon is the Group 2 Villiers Stakes over the mile, where Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou saddle up joint favourites Ellsberg and Steely. We are leading the cheer squad for the latter runner, especially after he romped in to win at Kembla Grange last time out at $8.50. Having had 20 starts for eight wins, the five-year-old gelding faces his toughest test yet, although he drops 7kg in weight for his troubles, getting down to 53kg with Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle. Drawn perfectly in barrier four, Steely is going to get the run of the race behind a moderate tempo and be running them down late. This looks his race, the winner of which will be guaranteed a spot in the Doncaster Handicap in the autumn. Ellsberg will make his own luck out in front, while Stockman should improve at 1600m.
Selections: 15-6-8-3
Race 9: Benchmark 88 (1600m)
In the penultimate, we are once again dealt with a very tricky race, but we are pretty confident about the chances of Equation. The Annabel Neasham-trained four-year-old closed off really well behind Steely at his last start, which we are hoping will be very good form by the time this race comes around. The son of Press Statement hasn’t had any joy at Randwick in the past, but they have been in some pretty hot races where he hasn’t had a great deal of luck. Drawn to get every chance from barrier seven, Tommy Berry can get this entire to settle midfield and then really attack the line late. Form behind Aim, Our Playboy and Steely looks elite for this.
Selections: 9-12-8-3
Race 10: Benchmark 78 (1400m)
There isn’t a great deal of value to be had in the last race of the day, but Brookspire looks close to a good thing. The mare trained by Chris Waller chased hard behind Expat last time out at Rosehill, and that horse is the favourite for a Listed race at Eagle Farm on Saturday. The four-year-old by Hinchinbrook has won two of her three starts over 1400m and handles all track conditions, which is ideal given the uncertainty surrounding what this surface will do. Drawn in the marble under Nash Rawiller, it could be a case of riding her like the best horse and really giving her rivals something to try and chase, although we suspect Rawiller will take a sit inside the first four runners. She looks very hard to beat in the ‘get out’.
Selections: 5-6-9-11
Saturday quaddie tips for Royal Randwick
| Randwick quadrella selections | |
|---|---|
| Leg 1: | 1-2-7-10 |
| Leg 2: | 6-15 |
| Leg 3: | 9-12 |
| Leg 4: | 5-6-9 |
| Investment: | $46 for 100% |