Hollindale Stakes tips, race preview & form | QLD 8/5
| What | Group 2 A.D. Hollindale Stakes |
| Where | Gold Coast Turf Club |
| When | Saturday, May 8, 2021 | 3:44pm AEST | Race 8 |
| Prizemoney | $500,000 |
| Distance | 1800m |
| Status | Listed |
| Race Conditions | Weight For Age |
| 2020 Winner | Race not run |
| Watch Live | |
The Hollindale Stakes may only carry Group 2 status, but this Saturday’s edition is of Group 1 quality. The $500,000 Gold Coast feature has attracted a capacity field which includes eight Group 1 winners. The market struggled to split them and has opened Avilius as the $5.50 favourite, ahead of Zaaki, Melody Bella, Fifty Stars and Shared Ambition who are all under single figures. The chances don’t end there however, with another five runners marked between $10 and $20. The speed will come from Paradee, Homesman and Mister Sea Wolf, while we could see Shared Ambition go forward as well.
We struggled to split the Hollindale Stakes field, and in the end it came down to the barrier draw. Of the top chances, only two of them have drawn well — Shared Ambition and Avilius — so they are our top two. Shared Ambition goes in on top as he is going to be in a better spot in the run from barrier eight. He was ridden upside down in the Neville Sellwood Stakes last start at Group 3 level, with James McDonald taking him to the front, and that proved to be a winning move in the end over the 2000m. That run came on the April 3, so he has had a little over a month between runs which should have him fresh for this assignment which is tougher than his last. Chris Waller gave him a soft time at the trials on April 27, which no doubt would have brought him on nicely. Brisbane Metropolitan leading jockey Jim Byrne has been booked for the ride which is an advantage considering he is striking at 20% at the Gold Coast over the past 12 months.
Avilius is our second pick in this tough race, after he was an eye-catching fifth in the Doncaster Mile last time out under handicap conditions. He rises 3kg but will be severely advantaged by weight-for-age conditions in this. The seven-year-old gelding has had just the one start over 1800m in the past which saw him victorious, so he should appreciate the trip once again. The James Cummings-trained gelding has had three runs this time in, with all three at Group 1 level so this Group 2 event should be easier. Rain around the region in the past few days has the track currently rated a Heavy 8 which will be to his liking, and barrier nine should see him midfield with some cover under Nash Rawiller. He will love the conditions at the Gold Coast and can return to the winner’s circle for the first time in a long time.
There is a contingent of chances that could fill the placings; Paradee is undefeated over 1800m and has won two from two at this track and trip over the Summer carnival, Zaaki was super first-up in Australia in the Doncaster, before just missing at his most recent run. He will be better back to 2000m in the Doomben Cup in two week’s time and it is impossible to ignore the Kiwi trio, Melody Belle, Tiptronic and Two Illicit, but we are going to side with another seasoned gelding. Fifty Stars will also be peaking in a fortnight in the Group 1 feature at Doomben, but his run last start in the Group 1 All Aged Stakes was super. After settling last, he absolutely motored to seventh over the unsuitable 1400m and was finishing over the top of the other runners. The $2.6M earner’s last win came in March last year in the Group 1 Australian Cup, but he has been thereabouts in some big races since. The wet track will suit, barrier 12 isn’t the worst thing in the world given where some of his key rivals are drawn, and he gets the ‘Wizard of the West’, William Pike aboard.
Best bets for 2021 Hollindale Stakes
| $100 betting strategy | |
|---|---|
| $30 x $50 | Shared Ambition |
| $20 win | Avilius |
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