Free form & racing tips for Memsie Stakes Day at Caulfield
SATURDAY at Caulfield looms as the pinnacle of group racing so far this season in what could be the best-ever Group One Memsie Stakes field.
Just about every horse in this field has the ability to take out a group one title, which adds another facet of interest to what could be the best race of 2017.
There are another eight quality races besides the Memsie, so let’s take a look at where we think your money is best invested.
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Race 1 – Sheen Group BM70 (1400m)
Justice Glory is looking to make it three wins from five career starts on Saturday. Last time out it won by a nose at Sandown among similar company. The Fastnet Rock filly will be taking to the Caulfield course for the first time ever but we think it is the horse to beat given its pedigree.
Three-year-old filly Prosecution was the horse that Justice Glory only narrowly defeated that day and there is no reason to think it will not be in the mix again Saturday. The horse gets the benefit of a 2.5kg relief in weights and from the inside barrier should be able to lead in a race with not a lot of early speed.
We expect the pair to be battling it out again but we have to give the edge to Justice Glory. Winning form is good form, especially when its against the foe you just vanquished.
Race 1 tip: Justice Glory to win ($4 at CrownBet.com.au)
Race 2 – Chandler MacLeod Plate (1400m)
Aside from its baffling last-start failure at Caulfield, Schism had been racing in the form of its life after recording four straight wins. The five-year-old has won four of its five starts at the 1400m journey and has one win from its solitary attempt at course and distance. We are looking for a strong bounce-back performance from the Maher mare.
Swampland is hunting for a fourth consecutive win after three very impressive runs at Cranbourne and Flemington. The horse may be coming to the end of its preparation soon but if it keeps putting in winning performances it will be hard to send away. She will carry 6kg less than Schism and has winning form on her side.
In a terrific field we think these two are the standouts, but we are favouring Swampland to make it four on the trot. It jumps from barrier five, which is a big tick, and carrying just 54kg is a huge advantage.
Race 2 tip: Swampland to win ($4.40 at CrownBet.com.au)
Race 3 – Hockingstuart BM78 (1200m)
Bons Away returns to the city after two sensational wins in the country. Following a second at Sandown, the four-year-old won stylishly at Sale before hammering the field as a short-priced favourite at Mildura. The horse drew the widest gate possible but the form is impossible to fault.
Theanswermyfriend ran extremely well first up last week at Caulfield, just losing out to Quilista. The second-place finish extended the four-year-old’s streak to five races inside the top two. Like Bons Away it jumps from a wide barrier but any luck in transit will see it taking this race out.
Race 3 tip: Theanswermyfriend to win ($2.80 at CrownBet.com.au)
Race 4 – H.D.F McNeil Stakes (1200m)
Not a lot separates the two favourites in the fourth race on the card and we think the market is absolutely spot on.
Merchant Navy opened as a deserved favourite after putting together a flawless record in its opening preparation. The horse returns after just over four months away from the competitive circuit and all exposed form points towards a solid performance.
Trekking ventures south to Victoria for the first time ever after a solid start to its career. The Godolphin colt has a 75 per cent placing strike-rate and ran well at Rosehill two weeks ago in a handy race. It will have a fitness advantage on Merchant Navy as well as a slight advantage in weights.
Racing fitness is telling in these types of races and for that reason we have to favour the Godolphin runner. The three-year-old should be rock-hard fit and ready to win on Saturday.
Race 4 tip: Trekking to win ($3.70 at CrownBet.com.au)
Race 5 – Ladbrokes Cockram Stakes (1200m)
The returning Fuhryk ($3 at CrownBet.com.au) is first up after the Group Three Miss Proud Stakes at Morphettville back on May 20. The horse has won previously first up and should be good to go for the Hayes and Dabernig team.
Stablemate to the favourite, Sullivan Bay is a mare in-form heading into Saturday. Racing almost exclusively at Caulfield over the past three months, the horse has won twice and not missed a placing across four starts at the track. It is currently at double figures, which we believe will shorten significantly before the jump.
Race 5 tip: Sullivan Bay to win ($9.50 at CrownBet.com.au)
Race 6 – MyPunter.com The Heath (1100m)
Six-year-old Sheidel resumes after just shy of five months away from the track. The form prior to being turned away was nothing noteworthy, but the horse has three wins and a placing from six first-up attempts. It is the obvious standout here and will be tough to beat.
The best option at odds is Crystal Dreamer, which is currently at $15 via CrownBet.com.au. The horse has won exactly half its starts at Caulfield and returns fresh after just shy of three months off the track. The horse gets an ideal barrier draw and has won twice and placed second a further two times from four attempts. Will be right in the mix.
Race 6 tip: Sheidel ($2.70) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 7 – Group One Memsie Stakes (1280m)
A lot of people are jumping off the Black Heart Bart bandwagon but we are backing the seven-year-old to put in a big performance on Saturday. The horse was far from disgraced last time out and returns to a distance where it has excelled, winning eight times and placing another five over 14 starts.
Bart also loves Caulfield, where it has never missed a placing and has won five times over seven attempts. Those are some serious statistics in favour of the Darren Weir star.
Hey Doc comes into this race following a brilliant win in the Group Three Aurie’s Star Handicap. Although trainer Tony McEvoy is playing down his runner’s chances, we think it is one of the main hopes here. The horse has two wins and a second placing from three second-up runs and should be right in the mix in the shadows of the post.
Race 7 tip: Black Heart Bart ($6.50 at CrownBet.com.au)
Race 8 – Dream Thoroughbreds Heatherlie Stakes (1700m)
Hell Or Highwater is a mare that just continues to impress every time it steps out onto the track. Not many gave the horse a chance of winning the Pegasus Leisure Group Plate at Caulfield but the five-year-old put in a brilliant front-running display to win by just under half a length. A win on Saturday would deliver a hat-trick of triumphs.
Tally put in a wonderful first-up performance for Godolphin on August 12, finishing second behind short-priced favourite Soverign Nation. That run was surprising given it was just meant to be a blow out and expectations have suddenly risen around the five-year-old. From barrier eight it should get a good enough run in transit and, having previously won and placed twice second up, it has the runs on the board to suggest it may be the horse to beat here.
Race 8 tip: Tally to win ($7 at CrownBet.com.au)
Race 9 – Comcat Handicap (1400m)
Dodging Bullets is first up in the final race on the card at Caulfield where it has previously won twice before. The horse has never missed a placing across course and distance so there is plenty in favour of the Artie Schiller gelding coming into Saturday.
Red Alto is a quality runner that failed badly at Moonee Valley on Saturday, but we are forgiving this run after not much went right in the running. Before that the five-year-old won nicely as a $21 chance at Flemington at the beginning of the month, and it has previously won third up before in its career.
Race 9 tip: Red Alto to win ($13 at CrownBet.com.au)