Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes free tips and form, Saturday September 9
PUNTERS should be excited about the action this Saturday which is headlined by the Group 2 Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes at Moonee Valley.
The excellent betting card also includes the McEwen Stakes where Russian Revolution takes on Houtzen and the Atlantic Jewel Stakes where a big field of talented three-year-olds take to the track.
We have free tips, form and updated odds for every race on the card this Saturday and there’s great value on offer with Topbetta.com.au.
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Race 1 – Ladbrokes Odds Boost Handicap (1600m)
Samovare is the first favourite of the day, but punters are getting a little frustrated. The Lindsay Park-trained four-year-old has finished second as the short favourite twice already this campaign. It finished 2.5 lengths behind Swampland last start which has subsequently run well and it should find this easier. It opened around $2.40 and has drifted to $2.60 so there’s a lack of confidence.
Spanish Reef has firmed in a point to $5 after opening at $6. The Ken Keys-trained four-year-old won consecutive races earlier this preparation before running second at Flemington last time out. It showed good fight on that occasion and dropping in weight to 55kg for this looks ideal. It owns each way claims.
Race 1 tip: Spanish Reef to place ($1.85) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 2 – Sweeney We Know West Handicap (1509m)
Trainer Steve Richards has a big opinion of Sunquest and there was plenty to like about its most recent effort. The three-year-old colt produced a big finish late on this track to run third behind Overshare and that form should stack up well. It’s long overdue another win and despite facing a tough field, the odds of $5 are worth the risk.
Aberro was impressive when beating subsequent winner Wassergeist at Sandown last start. The Matt Laurie-trained colt by All Too Hard turned around some consistent form behind the likes of Eshtiraak and Merchant Navy and it has plenty of improvement to come. It stretched out nicely which makes the rise in distance no worries and it’s another runner at value odds of $5.
Race 2 tip: Sunquest to win ($5) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 3 – Mimatch Handicap (1509m)
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Anaheim doesn’t have a great form line, but it’s much better than that. The Busuttin/Young-trained four-year-old competed in three consecutive group one races last season and its most recent run came when finishing fifth in the Group 1 SA Derby behind Volatile Mix. Despite needing more distance, it has placed in both starts fresh up and bookmakers have it safe in the market at $4.80 after opening at $4.60.
Brahmos has been fluctuating in the market, but remains the best-backed at $3. The John Sadler-trained son of Smart Missile was a stellar winner on debut over Bons Away which has since won back-to-back races and its effort last start when second had plenty of merit. It was left a sitting duck over the concluding stages, but it drops right down in weight for this and Craig Williams sticks with it.
Race 3 tip: Brahmos to win ($3) at Topbetta.com.au
Race 4 – LF Sign Group Handicap (2040m)
Hans Holbein was entitled to finish closer last start, but race fitness gave out. The Robert Hickmott-trained six-year-old always improves second up with two wins from three starts and having another run around The Valley will do it plenty of good. It touched $4.20 in the betting, but has drifted out a touch to $4.40.
Stablemate Foundry has attracted support at $5 following its placing fresh up behind Rhythm To Spare. The eight-year-old import hasn’t quite lived up to expectations in Australia, but it has been around the mark and it’s consistent. We’d like to see a winning run come soon, but consider in this.
Race 4 tip: Hans Holbein to win ($4.40) at WilliamHill.com.au
Race 5 – Mitty’s McEwen Stakes (1000m)
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Houtzen is the easing favourite for the group two co-feature. The winner of four from five starts including the Magic Millions Classic has drifted from $2.35 to $2.50 for its fresh up run, but punters are still expecting a big effort. The Toby Edmonds-trained sprinter has a stack of early speed which will be key after drawing barrier six and the 1000m distance is ideal for the quality three-year-old filly. It gets an incredible 8.5kg weight difference from Russian Revolution and Craig Williams is the man to have in the saddle.
Russian Revolution is all class and it will likely head to stud following the spring. The four-year-old has won five from eight starts including The Galaxy at Rosehill last preparation. The Snowden-trained son of Snitzel is unbeaten in two fresh starts which reads well, but this distance might be short of its best. Drawing barrier four is ideal in the small field, but it’s giving away weight to some talented types.
Race 5 tip: Houtzen to win ($2.50) at Topbetta.com.au
Race 6 – Mitchelson Wines Atlantic Jewel Stakes (1200m)
We can’t deny the unbeaten form of Shoals and bookmakers are offering a good value price for the filly. The Anthony Freedman-trained three-year-old won on debut by four lengths and it has since scored impressive wins over the likes of Garrard and Formality. This might be a tough field, but it looks the standout runner of the race and we’re expecting the $4 to close around the $2.80 mark.
The betting move has come for Sanadaat, which could have been unbeaten to date. The Lindsay Park-trained runner won on its ear on debut at Morphettville before running an unlucky third in the Talindert Stakes at Flemington. It made amends when dropping in grade to win by almost three lengths last start and that has attracted the attention of punters. It opened at $6 and has been smashed into $4.40 so keep an eye on any further betting moves.
Race 6 tip: Shoals to win ($4) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 7 – Strathmore Bendigo Bank Handicap (1200m)
Oak Door proved too tough when winning at Moonee Valley last start and that form should be considered here. The Smerdon-trained runner had been running in tough races prior to that which included the Australian and Queensland Guineas. There’s one main danger in this race, but the place odds of $2.05 are worth considering.
Brave Smash is the hype horse of the field and its last start placing was out of the top drawer. The former Japanese runner came from well off the pace to run Vega Magic to within a half-length and that form has been franked at the top level. With a better run it wins that race and the $1.65 looks spot on for the possible Cox Plate contender, with the only worry being the sprinting distance.
Race 7 tip: Brave Smash to win ($1.65) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 8 – Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes (1600m)
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Kiwi mare Bonneval might be the best of the best across the Tasman and despite wanting more ground, it could feature here at nice odds. The Baker/Forsman-trained four-year-old by Makfi has won five from eight which includes the New Zealand Oaks and the Australian Oaks. Its win in the Australian Oaks came by 4.5 lengths and although the age-group stayers in Australia don’t stack up well, it could offer some fight over the mile at odds of $8.
Former New Zealand runner He’s Our Rokki is the current favourite at $3.60 and its fresh up run behind Hartnell in the P.B. Lawrence Stakes had plenty of merit. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained runner typically improves second up and its form last campaign featured a win at the highest level. The tight-turning Moonee Valley track is a concern, but it should put itself into the race around the home turn.
Race 8 tip: Bonneval to place ($2.60) at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 9 – Powerflo Solutions Craig Opie Cup (1600m)
Big Duke always carries plenty of tote support and punters shouldn’t drop off after finishing fifth last start. The Chairman’s Handicap winner finished off well behind Rhythm To Spare last start and it would have enjoyed having the run fitness wise. The Darren Weir-trained runner won its only start on this track which is always a positive and despite drifting from $4.40 to $5.50 it should be considered as a winning chance.
Etymology has won only one of 14 starts, but there was plenty to like about its run at Rosehill last start. The Cummings-trained five-year-old import finished second in the 2016 SA Derby and pulled up with a vet problem in the 2016 Queensland Derby, so to return after 427 days off with a placing was a great performance. There’s risk involved second up, but the $4.80 suggests it’s spot on.
Race 9 tip: Big Duke to place ($2.10) at Bet365.com