Caulfield racing tips, value bets & odds | Saturday, August 28
| What | Memsie Stakes Day 2021 |
| Where | Caulfield Racecourse – 22 Station St, Caulfield East VIC 3145 |
| When | Saturday, August 28, 2021 |
| First Race | 12:20pm AEST |
| Feature Race | Memsie Stakes – Race 8 |
| Watch Live | |
A bumper nine-part card is scheduled for Caulfield on Saturday afternoon, and HorseBetting’s Victorian racing analyst presents his best bets, top exotic picks and quaddie numbers for Memsie Stakes Day. The track is rated a Soft 5 with the rail returning to the true position, and the meeting is set to get underway at 12:20pm AEST.
Race 1: Neds Handicap (2400m)
The Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival officially gets underway on Saturday, and we open the Caulfield program with a staying event over 2400m. On the quick backup from finishing midfield at Moonee Valley on August 21, the Nick Ryan-trained Mahamedeis returns to Caulfield and steps up in distance as he continues his long campaign from the winter. Two starts back he managed to beat Pancho at The Valley on July 31, with that horse then turning the tables on him in dominant style last weekend. Mahamedeis has five wins at Caulfield including one at 2400m, and with Josh Richards on board and claiming 3kg, we anticipate the seven-year-old gelding will be too hard to hold out if it is a day where you can make up ground from the rear of the field.
Selections: 1-3-2-4
Race 2: Volvo Cars Brighton Handicap (1100m)
The second race on the card is one of the more competitive BM78s going around, but we have settled on the Mitch Freedman-trained Zorro’s Dream. The five-year-old son of Toronado broke through for a deserving win at Flemington on August 7, and the field he meets here at Caulfield is no harder than what he has faced in recent times. Despite the recent form of Deep Speed, Destination and the returning The Gauch, the $10 on offer for Zorro’s Dream is hard to ignore with Will Price’s claim getting him in with just 58kg.
Selections: 7-5-8-9
Race 3: Evergreen Turf Handicap (1400m)
One of the better bets on the program comes up in the third, when the returning Annavisto for the Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr stable steps out over 1400m. The four-year-old mare burst onto the scene last campaign with a win in the Listed Bendigo Guineas which came in the middle of a run that saw her win three of four starts. She was last seen finishing third in the Listed HC Nitschke Stakes, but on the back of an 18-week spell, she looks hard to go past on Saturday. The daughter of Reliable Man has two wins from two first-up runs and also has a win to her name at the Caulfield 1400m. Her trial was only fair, but in a race where she may have only one or two main dangers, she looks a good bet at $3.80.
Selections: 2-7-3-6
Race 4: HDF McNeil Stakes (1200m)
The first of the black-type races on Saturday is the Group 3 HDF McNeil Stakes over 1200m for the three-year-olds. It marks the return of the 2021 Blue Diamond Stakes winner Artorius, who is our best bet of the day. If he had drawn a better barrier in the Golden Slipper, there is no doubt he would have finished closer than he did that day when beaten 5.7 lengths in sixth. He has an electrifying turn of foot, as he showed in the Blue Diamond, and with a win to his name over the impressive Goldolphin duo of Ingratiating and Anamoe, he looks the one to beat in the small field of nine.
Selections: 1-9-2-3
Race 5: The Heath 1100 (1100m)
We are happy to take on $1.80 favourite Masked Crusader, who needs to carry 60kg from barrier 10, instead siding with the resuming Crosshaven. The Ben & JD Hayes-trained gelding’s autumn campaign could not have been any worse, but his three-year-old season last spring suggests he will take some beating here. He had form behind Ole Kirk and Aysar, and then backed it up with a placing in the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes, before a poor run in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes behind Probabeel and Arcadia Queen saw him spelled. While the son of Smart Missile will no doubt want further than the 1100m, he will gain an economical run in transit compared to Masked Crusader. With a genuine tempo expected throughout, we expect to see Crosshaven savaging the line and proving too hard to hold out.
Selections: 3-1-2-4
Race 6: WW Cockram Stakes (1200m)
The opening leg of the quaddie pits two genuine Group 1 mares against one another in Probabeel and Instant Celebrity, while the ever-improving La Mexicana also looms as a threat. For once we are not siding with La Mexicana, instead banking on the class of Probabeel in the Group 3 WW Cockram Stakes. With Instant Celebrity needing to carry 60kg for the first time in her career, Probabeel will have the slight advantage having done so first-up in the autumn when winning the Group 3 Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes at this track and distance on the back of a tough run. The Jamie Richards-trained mare has a strong affiliation with Damian Lane, who hops back on board, and despite drawing barrier 10, we anticipate the daughter of Savabeel to be too hard to hold out as she builds into another big spring campaign.
Selections: 1-2-3-6
Race 7: Heatherlie Stakes (1700m)
The Listed Heatherlie Stakes pits some of the best Victorian stayers against one another over 1700m, with plenty of these looking to gain a run in the Caulfield Cup in just under two months’ time. Tralee Rose sent tongues wagging during her summer campaign when posting dominant wins in the Listed Bagot Handicap and Group 3 Lord Reims Stakes. She would ultimately struggle in the Group 2 Adelaide Cup, but we are happy to be with her here. The Symon Wilde-trained mare is paying $10 at to bring up a third win from as many starts over 1700m and is set to reunite with Craig Williams. From barrier 17, Williams will need a little luck early on, but if he is afforded that, then Tralee Rose is the class horse in the field and should prove too good in her first-up run.
Selections: 9-12-2-7
Race 8: Memsie Stakes (1400m)
In an open market, we are siding with the Mike Moroney-trained Tofane as she pushes to make it three Group 1 wins in as many starts. The six-year-old mare took out the Stradbroke Handicap and Tatts Tiara during the Queensland Winter Racing Carnival and looks well placed to take out the Memsie Stakes. Craig Williams has taken the ride on Tofane rather than 2020 Memsie winner Behemoth, and that booking is hard to ignore. She should get the run of the race from barrier four and is proven at Group 1 level, that’s where our money is going.
Selections: 10-2-7-8
Race 9: Neds Filter Form Handicap (1400m)
The final race of the day sees the return of the Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr-trained Ayrton, but the winning form in New South Wales of Frosty Rocks is hard to ignore. Price came out during the week and said he was not expecting Ayrton to win first-up, and the $2.10 on offer is simply too short for a horse whose trainer has little confidence. Frosty Rocks for Bjorn Baker has strung together consecutive victories in Sydney and comes to Melbourne in career-best form. From barrier two with Craig Williams on board, the five-year-old gelding will got a cosy run in transit and look to sit just off Ayrton’s heels throughout. With race-fit legs, we expect Frosty Rocks to be too strong over the final 200m.
Selections: 3-11-2-1
Saturday quaddie tips for Caulfield
| Caulfield quadrella selections | |
|---|---|
| Leg 1: | 1-2-3 |
| Leg 2: | 2-4-7-9-12 |
| Leg 3: | 2-7-8-10 |
| Leg 4: | 1-2-3-11 |
| Investment: | $240 for 100% |